Cover Two

VA Tech BB Preview: NC State & Miami

2008-02-04T19:35:00.000-06:00

With two big, big wins in the past week, the Hokies are right on track for an NCAA tournament bid. Currently, Tech sits third in the ACC pyramid. The league will likely land at 7 teams in the dance, so if the Hokies can stay in the conference’s top 5, they’ll be in the dance: period.

Did you see this coming? I didn’t. Can it last? Let’s see:

at NC State (14-7, 3-4 ACC)

The ‘Pack is a team with eerily similar stats to VA Tech this year. Tech’s scoring 69.2 points a game; NC State scores 67.6. Tech gives up 63.3 a night; the Wolfpack give up 66.6. Both teams are 2-4 on the road; Tech is 9-1 at home, NC State is 9-2.

So, why in teams that fill a box score so similarly (at least right now), has one squad dominated the other so much? NC State has won the last five meetings in the series, dating back to a January 19, 2005 one point Tech win. The run got particularly rough last year as the Wolfpack swept three meetings by an average of 14.7 points an outing.

Last year, NC State exerted dominance in the paint, abusing Tech’s undersized squad with an abundance of height. Senior Gavin Grant is back for another swing through the league; the 6-foot-7 old reliable from the Bronx is having a year that mirrors his 2007 ACC campaign. Grant is averaging 14 points and 4.4 boards a year, numbers that are slightly down in correlation with an average of five less minutes a night from last year. As you see so often in players’ senior years, Grant has finally begun to value the basketball, dropping his turnover numbers from 4.2 last year to 2.2 this year. That’s two extra possessions he’s keeping in the Wolfpack’s hands this year. That’s good stuff.

Grant’s been around; J.J. Hickson is the new sheriff in town. NC State’s leading scorer is a young buck, a 6-foot-9 freshman from Marietta, Georgia. By the time Hickson is done in Raleigh, I’m predicting he’s one of those players that seems like he’s been around forever. Most of the ACC is already sick of his 15.0/8.4 average. Hickson is a consistent scorer, with 7 of his last 8 games in the 10-16 point range, and he’s come on strong lately off the glass, snaring 4 straight double-doubles. One thing he obviously hasn’t learned to do yet is take care of the ball as well as Grant. Hickson turns the ball over almost 3 times a game. Tech will be forced to double him in the post early and often. Yep, the Hokies will be committing a lot of their defensive resources to double downs on Hickson. So who’s the real difference maker in the game?

My money’s on Courtney Fells, NC State’s third-leading scorer and most frequent three point threat. With Tech devoting bodies to Hickson, there are going to be kick outs. Fells will be the recipient of his share of dishes, and if he gets hot, it’s probably game over for the Hokies. When Fells runs cold, as he did against Duke (0-for-5 FG), and Michigan State (0-for-7 FG), the Wolfpack get bombed. When he’s hot, as he has been in making 50% of his threes in five of the last six games, this is a dangerous NC State team.

Prediction: It’s really hard for me to pick against a team that has owned the Hokies since 2005. The ‘Pack still has big bodies, and Fells has been red hot lately. Too much Fells; the streak runs to 6. NC State by 8.

Miami (15-6, 2-5 ACC)

Consider yourself warned: this team has moxie. The Hurricanes battled Duke like few teams have this year, trading punch for metaphorical punch, and doling out more than a few real ones as well before succumbing late down the stretch, 88-73.

Junior Jack McClinton is the rock ‘em-sock ‘em heart and soul of this Canes squad. McClinton is a feisty one; he can score in bunches, make great passes, commit egregious turnovers, and all the rest. He’s like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re going to get – except heart, and a lot of it.

Sophomore James Dews is a relative newbie in the McClinton mode who’s earned his keep this year, along with a bunch more playing time, by being a solid three-point option. Dews has raised his percentage beyond the arc from 27.6% to 41.7% - a dramatic and necessary improvement. Dews mailed in 20 against Georgia Tech and 17 at Providence – two of the ‘Canes biggest wins of the season.

Fifth year senior Anthony King is the inside threat most likely to bust the Hokies’ chops. In his fifth year in a ‘Canes outfit, King is about as steady as big men get. For four straight years, King has been a rock, averaging between 6 and 9 points a game and 7 and 9 boards. This year – he’s improved in a couple corollary categories. Never before has King boasted an assist:turnover ratio higher than .68; this year, it’s 1.24. To make the problem worse, you can’t just hammer away on King if he’s going off. His 73% FT percentage is great by big man standards; if one player on the ‘Canes is likely to have a break out game and break the Hokies’ back, it’s this guy.

Prediction: I don’t see Tech losing this game at home. Miami’s success has been come on its home court in south Florida, and they haven’t much north of Interstate 4. There’s too much at stake as Tech tries to hold serve this weekend; Vassallo goes for 18, and it’s Hokies by 11.

VA Tech BB Preview: Duke & Boston College

2008-01-21T21:16:00.000-06:00

As Tech’s trip toward postseason play marches on, it’s back to Cassell on Thursday for the annual anticipated throwdown with ACC bully, Duke. Just 45 hours later, the Hokies will be in Chestnut Hill tipping off against Boston College. What’s in store for January’s fourth week? Let’s check it out.

DUKE (15-1, 3-0 ACC)

Biggest Win: Marquette, 77-73

Worst Loss: vs. Pitt, 65-64

The Devils are good. Anyone surprised by this information probably hasn’t watched a college basketball game in my lifetime, and certainly hasn’t been following the ACC, which Duke has dominated the last 15 years, earning numerous ACC titles and final four appearances.

This year’s edition of team Krzyzewski is a classic Durham outfit, scoring points in bunches (85.0 ppg, 9^th nationally), preventing other teams from scoring (3^rd nationally in victory margin, and just generally blowing everyone out that gets in their way (8 wins by 22 points or more).

DeMarcus Nelson leads the Devils in scoring (14.3), completing a career that’s steadily developed from a 6.2 ppg/4.5 rpg season as a freshman in 2004. The biggest change in Nelson’s numbers this year is a 50% jump in his assist-to-turnover ratio. Assists are up from 2.0 to 2.9, turnovers are down from 2.5 to 2.3. It’s hard to say exactly how to stop Nelson, since his greatest strength is his consistency. In 10 battles this year, Nelson’s been right between 9 and 16 points. In 12 games this season, he’s been between 5 and 8 rebounds. Nelson is hard to stop, and despite logging 32 minutes a game, he keeps himself in the game by not fouling much. However, despite being Duke’s leading scorer, he’s not a stone cold killer in the mold of JJ Redick or some of Coach K’s other great gunslingers. Keep him right around his average of 14, and Tech can win.

In what some suggested would be a rebuilding year for the Devils, the rebuilding might be starting with Kyle Singler. Singler is a long, 6-foot-8 freshman out of the great northwest that’s roaring out of the gates with a 13 point, 6 rebound a game average. Most impressive in these early stages of his career, Singler has already shown a proclivity for showing up in big games. The frosh dropped in 25 points against Marquette, 13 on just 7 shots against Wisconsin, and 17 against Pitt and Clemson. That’s an 18-per game average in what have probably been Duke’s biggest four games of the year. If he blows up, the Hokies have no chance to win. It’s that simple.

Duke’s other weapons are mostly young, too. Jon Scheyer, a sophomore from Chicago’s north shore, has come on strong lately, raising his average to 11 points a game with 8 double-figure outings in his last 10 games. Sophie Gerald Henderson has doubled his output to 13 a night off last year’s average of 6.8. Junior Greg Paulus has seen minutes, points, boards and assists all drop this year; is he being rested for the stretch drive? Time will tell.

Prediction: I know, I know: we’ve heard it all before – VA Tech can’t hang with Duke, they’re outmatched physically. The Hokies have battled Duke as well as anyone the last couple years, but I think they’re facing too high a mountain this time. Without Jeff Allen to match up on some of the Devils’ bigger bodies, VA Tech faces an even tougher battle. Duke by 13.

BOSTON COLLEGE (12-5, 3-1 ACC)

Biggest Win: Miami (Fl.), 76-66

Worst Loss: Robert Morris, 57-51

The BC Eagles have 12 wins in 17 games, but have benefited from one of the coziest early season schedules in the country. BC hasn’t had to leave Chestnut Hill for 5 games, and only three of those have been true road battles. BC’s list of early season victims isn’t impressive, save Maryland, the tally includes New Hampshire, Fl. Atlantic, Mercer, Rhode Island, Northeastern, Sacred Heart and Longwood. This is not a battle-tested 12-win team, and the seams are going to start to show during the ACC stretch drive.

Gone is Jared Dudley, but Tyrese Rice has picked up a big of his slack, logging 19.5 points and a clutch 5.3 assists an outing so far this season. Rice is quick, with fast hands (1.6 steals/game) and an ability to flat go off from the free throw line (11 straight FTs made in two games this year). You can’t foul him; he’s hard to guard. The absence of Allen in the middle will make his dribble drive penetration even more problematic.

The man literally filling Dudley’s spot has been Shamari Spears, a sophomore who’s burst in to the starting lineup by showing an aggressiveness and hunger for the basketball. Spears averages over 7 boards a night. Spears has a tendency to disappear in BC losses. Spears only contributed 6 against Kansas, 8 against Robert Morris and 8 against UMASS. When he’s not scoring and getting some putbacks, or worse, taking himself out of the game via foul trouble, the Eagles really struggle. I truly believe that the key to winning tough basketball games is stopping an opponent’s second and third options, not their first.

In that spirit, freshman Corey Raji can’t be allowed to go off either. Raji has been inconsistent as they come, pouring in 24 and 17 against Providence and Maryland but contributing less than 5 points several times. Looking down the BC roster, you see its full of two things: young players, and wide, stout bodies. Rakim Sanders, a 6-foot-5 freshman scores 12.3 points a game. Biko Paris is another freshman, but his specialty is dishing the ball, earning 2.5 assists a game in limited minutes. Sophomore Tyler Roche scores 5 points a game, and could do some damage this weekend.

Prediction: If this game were at Cassell, I’d be picking the Hokies. I don’t think the Eagles have road legs, but the scheduling committee has given VA Tech an extremely stout test. Less than two days after playing Duke, the Hokies have to take a fairly long road trip against a team that basically sleeps at their home arena. Blame the schedule makers. BC by 9.

Universal Fantasy League

2008-01-20T00:53:00.001-06:00

It’s finally here.

Those of you that know me know I’ve been working on the creation of a new fantasy sports website for the better part of a year now. I present:

www.universalfantasyleague.com

In 2006, I was getting disgusted with fantasy football. Not because my team sucked, because it didn’t, but because – let’s be honest, fantasy football has gotten away from the important statistics. You’ve got your long play bonuses, your 300 yard bonuses, defenses that sack a lot getting more points than defenses that actually give up fewer points.

But here’s when I knew fantasy sports needed a new direction. The first time I heard my kid brother use the phrase vulturing. “Tiki Barber gets yards, but Brandon Jacobs is going to vulture all his goal line carries.” Nevermind the fact that, as long as somebody scores, it helps the Giants equally. The Giants: remember, the team? What people used to root for on Sundays before fantasy football gave them the chance to cherry pick players from every NFL team and root for vulturing.

The ultimate team game had become anything but.

In that spirit, I created Universal Fantasy League. UFL is a fantasy league where, instead of drafting players, you draft teams from any real life sport of your choosing. Every real life sport has a point system that keeps all leagues relatively even in prominence.

Then I got a business partner.

Jared Macke, computer geek extraordinaire, offered to turn the idea in to a website. I consented. Jared took the ball and ran with it, programming a wonderful, easy-to-use site full of gadgets, nooks, crannies and tools I’d never thought of. Why not create a method by which users could input their own local leagues, like beer softball or little leagues, and then get fantasy points for those? Why not allow obsessed users to use components of existing real life leagues to compose BRAND NEW fantasy roster spots, like “SEC Team”, where players have to draft one SEC team from every sport?

The only reason why not, was because Jared hadn’t thought of it yet.

Now, we have a super-cool, kick ass website that’s easy to use and is going to make a huge impact on the fantasy sports market. We’ve got:

- Infinite customization, from which real life leagues are in your fantasy roster, to the scoring for each league, to when your league starts and ends.

- Globalization of fantasy: for the first time, sports which don’t lend themselves well to individual stats (soccer, tennis) can be great fantasy sports components

- A ton of awesome tools, like a draft scheduler. Remember how big of a pain in the ass it is to find out every person in your league’s draft availability by mail? Well, the UFL site does it for you.

And a ton of other great stuff. We hope you like it. We’re pretty proud.

Head to www.Universalfantasyleague.com and start a league today. You won’t be sorry.

Virginia Tech BB Preview: UVA & GA Tech

2008-01-14T16:45:00.000-06:00

After a monumental win against the Terps to stay unbeaten at Cassell, the Hokies turn road warriors this week at UVA and Georgia Tech. Who’s waiting out there on the road? Check it out:

VIRGINIA (10-4, 0-1 ACC)

Biggest Win: at Arizona, 75-72

Worst Loss: Seton Hall, 74-60

The instate Cavs are near the bottom of the ACC ledger right now, but the conference campaign is just one game old, and the standings certainly won’t stay that way. UVA is a dangerous, poised team with some quality senior leadership that will be a tough, tough out in February and beyond. Let’s look at some of the Hoos’ main weapons.

As he has for three years now, senior guard Sean Singletary paces the Cavs. Singletary is a beast, plain and simple, a 6-foot dynamo that fills up a box score, averaging 17.9 points, 3.9 boards and a career high 6.6 assists per game. Singletary has been in double figures every game this year, and has dropped in 20+ on 6 occasions in his senior campaign. Singletary shoots, passes, and attacks well. The only significant chink in his armor is an increasing propensity to commit turnovers. He’s been asked to handle a bigger portion of the ball handling duties this year, and that responsibility has resulted in bumped up numbers in both assists and turnovers. Singletary averages nearly 5 turnovers a game, so Tech will likely have to pressure him and hope it can force a few gaffes.

Adrian Joseph has been UVA’s best front court player this year, and Joseph has certainly been a pleasant surprise. A contributor in years past, the senior has answered the bell this season, seeing his rebound numbers leap from 3.5 to 7.8 a game, and adding a few more points to go with the boards, scoring 11.9 up from 7.2 a game last year. Joseph is a dangerous player because of his nose for the ball and his ability to hit the outside shot. This is a 6-foot-7 man who shoots 40% from beyond the arc, and nearly 80% from the stripe. He’s not quite the size of ACC big men that have burnt Tech big time in recent years, but if any Cav is going to kill the Hokies singlehandedly, my money is on Joseph, not Singletary. UVA has lost 4 games this year, and in three of those games, Joseph has scored 6 points or less. If that doesn’t tell you that stopping Joseph is the key to this game, nothing will.

The Cavs have an ace sharpshooter in Mamadi Diane, the Potomac product that has drained a three-ball in 12 of 14 outings this season. Diane is hitting 48% of his threes on the year, and while that number just can’t last until March, Diane is certainly hot lately, with 16 of his last 36 made in competition. I’m always amazed when stud three-point shooters struggle at the free throw line, but Diane is only 70% from the charity stripe. If the game is tight late, the Cavs would be much better suited to foul Diane than let him get a clear look at the hoop from long distance.

Prediction: I don’t like this matchup for the Hokies. There’s certainly the momentum factor in Tech’s favor coming off the thrilling Maryland win, but UVA is really tough at home, and I don’t think VA Tech can keep up with the Hoos’ 79 points a game scoring pace. The Hokies take one on the chin. UVA by 12.

GEORGIA TECH (7-8, 0-2 ACC)

Biggest Win: at Notre Dame, 70-69

Worst Loss: UNC Greensboro, 83-74

If the Hokies are going to grab a road win in the ACC, this is their best chance. Tech is 7-8 and will be 7-9 after the Tar Heels come to town Wednesday night. The Jackets were hit hard by defections after last season, and come Saturday, will likely be experiencing the inevitable hangover the game after playing the nation’s top team. GA Tech is the perfect team against which Greenberg’s Gang can reach up and grab one away from Cassell.

It’s safe to say the Jackets are still trying to find their best rotation. Not a single GA Tech player averages more than 30 minutes per game, and 11 average 10 minutes or more. That’s an astounding amount of balance in minutes. Anthony Morrow, Tech’s senior guard, is the team’s most experienced player, and Morrow has had an up and down career. After a breakout sophomore campaign that saw Morrow average 16 points and 4 boards a game, he saw his minutes, points and rebounds all dip dramatically during last year’s campaign. But Morrow is back this year, leading the team with 15 and 5 a night, and an improved A:T ratio to boot, 1.21:1. Morrow has one of the sweetest touches you’ll see outside a massage parlor. The senior is shooting 47% from threeland, and small sample size isn’t a problem. He’s already buried 36 bombs in 15 games: 2.4 a game. Face guarding him and denying the ball is Tech’s biggest challenge in this game.

In the post, GA Tech will run out a rotation of several bigger guys who will come in with fresh legs and a hunger for the glass. Jeremis Smith is a senior averaging 10 points and 7 boards a game, who isn’t nearly as prone to turnovers as most other big men. Putting an early foul or two on Smith’s sheet would help a lot, because the longer he’s in the game, the harder Hokie post men have to work to keep up. Zach Peacock is another 6-8 banger, but he’s younger and less experienced. Still, he uses his height well, and unlike Smith, can drop in the occasional outside shot. And as long as we’re counting big men, we can’t forget Alade Aminu, a 6-foot-10 mountain from Stone Mountain, Georgia. At just 225 lbs., he’s not the strongest player on Tech’s roster, and it’s shown the last few weeks. After roaring out of the gate, Aminu has averaged only 4.7 points a game the last 9 outings; keeping him out of the box score and on the bench is another VA Tech key to victory.

Prediction: What hurdle will be hardest for the Hokies to leap, the sum total of GA Tech’s post men, or the sole force of Anthony Morrow? I’m not sure, but I think if VA Tech can win the battle in one of the two areas, it can get the win. Call it a gut feeling, but I don’t think the Hokies are going winless this week. Hokies by 5.

Orange Bowl Preview

2007-12-30T13:22:00.000-06:00

FEDEX ORANGE BOWL – Jan. 3rd, 8:00 EST

Virginia Tech vs. Kansas –

10-2, and champions of the ACC: just like I predicted to start the year. One thing I never would have predicted would be that the Hokies would get the Kansas Jayhawks, third place team in the Big 12, as a reward for their conference championship. Surely the ACC champs ought to beat the Big 12’s third best, right? Let’s check it out:

Kansas (11-1, 7-1 Big 12)

Offense: The Jayhawks roared out of the gates in September on the strength of an offense that scored so quickly, and so often, that it immediately forced opponents to alter their game plans just to keep up. KU dropped an average of 53.5 ppg on its first four opponents and then, after a 30-point ‘off-week’ against K-State, dropped another 58 on Baylor. When KU met Mizzou in Kansas City on Thanksgiving weekend, QBs Todd Reesing and Chase Daniel were at a crossroads. The two had put up similar numbers, with similar records and similar accompanying shock around their success. Whichever QB had the better game was going to be a Heisman finalist, and Daniel dominated the game, earning his ticket to New York. But Reesing’s year was equally spectacular. The junior went 256-409 this year, with an unbelievable 32:6 TD:INT ratio. Three of the picks came against K-State, and other than that, the numbers are even gaudier, 29:3. Will Reesing be an NFL QB? Heck no, but he’s been in a zone this year, reaching rare air with his accuracy and decision making. Reesing and KU haven’t been tested like they will be against VA Tech, and rattling Reesing is the best way to ruin KU’s offense. In the ‘Hawks’ two closest calls of the year, a tight win at K-State and the Mizzou loss, Reesing threw 5 of his 6 picks.

The rushing game was good for 197 ypg, 27^th nationally, and Brandon McAnderson and Jake Sharp are both solid backs, top ten in the Big 12. McAnderson, the senior, topped the century mark 5 times, with a mighty three game stretch of 434 yards and 8 TDs against A&M, Nebraska and Oklahoma State. Sharp, the sophomore, was the counter punch, going for 788 yards and 7 scores on the year; but Sharp was absent against Kansas, a fact that has been lost on the post-game commentary of that contest.

Junior WR Dexton Fields had a breakout year, with 56 catches for 733 yards and 6 scores. Unlike Reesing, Fields was at his best in the Jayhawks’ closest battles, catching a combined 14 balls for 194 yards against K-State and Mizzou. Marcus Henry is the home run threat in the passing game, turning 52 catches in to 994 yards and 9 scores. Henry is a big-time, grand slam kind of guy, and he benefits from Fields’ success over the middle. Fields will try to draw the safeties in, and Henry will find the deep seams.

KU’s offensive line was actually fairly mediocre this year, considering how good the offense was. The line was 47^th in the nation in sacks surrendered. I haven’t heard yet officially if Anthony Collins, the 310-lb. left tackle will play against the Hokies, but he’s probably the best offensive lineman. Collins dinged a leg against Iowa State, and he’s chiefly responsible for protecting Reesing’s backside. If Collins is out, the likelihood that Tech can create effective pressure on Reesing, and force the game-changing turnovers, goes way, way up. Center Ryan Cantrell will make the line calls in the no-huddle attack, and RT Cesar Rodriguez is KU’s only senior starting lineman.

Defense

Of all the reasons KU went 11-1 this year, a +1.58 turnover margin, tops in the entire nation, was the biggest. The Jayhawks were amazing at creating possession-changing plays and preventing them on the offensive end of the football. The defense deserves tons of credit for that, obviously, and the superstar of the KU defense is Aqib Talib. You’ve heard the name before, but remember it – I haven’t seen a lot of defensive players on Talib’s level when it comes to anticipation and vision. Talib only had 4 picks this year, and only one since October 6^th. He’s such a deadly pass picker, though, that he really won’t get much action, and Tech would be wise to throw away from him whenever possible. Talib also had 61 tackles and 8 receptions this year. He’s a great college football player, as good as KU has anywhere on the field.

The Jayhawks’ three leading tacklers are a trio of junior LBs that all finished in the top 14 in the Big 12 in dragging down opponents. Joe Mortensen, James Holt and Mike Rivera all nabbed 7+ tackles per outing, and comprise a linebacking corps that isn’t going to miss a lot of tackles, and is going to have the freedom to chase opposing backs all over the shop. Each of the backers is capable of taking over a game on the defensive end. In three of KU’s closest contests, against Mizzou, Colorado and Kansas State, Mortensen had 11+ tackles in each. And against the Buffaloes, in what has to be one of the toughest outings of any defensive player this year, Holt logged 12 solo tackles in a 19-14 slugfest. Running right at these guys probably isn’t the best strategy for the Hokies. I like a steady diet of counter and misdirection plays that capitalize on KU’s desire to pursue ball carriers with a vengeance.

KU’s weakness on defense is its front four, which finished 80^th nationally in sacks despite the fact that teams were passing against the Jayhawks constantly because of the huge leads they ran up. However, the defense was 4^th nationally in scoring allowed, and 14^th in yards, so even this d-line isn’t weak. Just vulnerable. Sophomore stud DL Maxwell Onyegbule was the sack leader, but only got one in Big 12 play. The real star of the line is James McClinton, a second-team All-American who made 11 TFL and 38 total tackles this year, and made himself a fixture in opposing backfields all day, every day. Stop McClinton, beat KU. It’s pretty simple. Caleb Blakesley and Russell Brorsen are decent parts of the machine, but McClinton will draw the double teams, and rightfully so.

Special Teams

Kicker Scott Webb probably never dreamed that when he came to KU, he’d score 114 points in a season, good for 2^nd in the Big 12. But that’s what he did in 2007, a tribute to KU’s dynamite offense and his accurate kicking leg. An interesting thing about Webb is that he doesn’t really scatter his misses; he’s either on or off. In two games this year, A&M and Mizzou, Webb went 2 for 7 on FGs. Over the other ten, he went 15 for 17. I’m not going to call the kid a head case, by any means, but Tech should know early if he has it or not. Kansas is awful in the punting game, absolutely awful. Kyle Tucker averaged less than 40 yards a boot this year, and the coverage was bad, too. 111^th in the country in net punting is an awful way to try to win football games. The seams will start to show against the Hokies, when KU has to punt a little more than it likes.

Prediction

The Jayhawks aren’t the dog a lot of folks on the eastern seaboard think they are. This is a team that was much more in it against Mizzou than a lot of people realized that didn’t watch the contest, and any time a team scores 43 or more points in 8 of 12 games, I’m going to give their offense some credit.

However, I like Tech’s 8^th ranked sack unit and 2^nd ranked scoring D to be able to do some things KU hasn’t seen, better than the Jayhawks expect. Pressure leads to Reesing errors, and as we’ve established, Reesing errors lead to KU struggles. Conversely, the one thing KU doesn’t do very well, rush the passer, is something teams have to do to beat Tech. Reesing, Fields and Talib will each make a couple plays that leave Hokie fans shaking their heads, but VA Tech will get a big special teams play and take control of the game in the third quarter, bringing the Orange Bowl trophy for a year’s residence in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech 27, Kansas 17.

Konica Minolta Gator Bowl Preview

2007-12-28T17:13:00.000-06:00

KONICA MINOLTA GATOR BOWL – Jan. 1^st, 1:00 EST

Virginia vs. Texas Tech –

In the ACC’s only New Year’s Day contest, the Hokie-vanquished Cavaliers draw explosive Texas Tech as a reward for their surprising 9-3 campaign. As has been well-documented in my column space this year, I’m from the camp that thinks this UVA was at least as much lucky as good, benefiting from 5 wins of 2 points or less. But they obviously had some mojo working for them, taking only two losses since the opening beating at Wyoming. Texas Tech is a tough team to get a bead on, one capable of greatness (beating Oklahoma, 34-27) and utter mediocrity (losses to Colorado and Oklahoma State).

I’m excited about this game. There’s almost no way this game will not be exciting. On one hand, we’ve got UVA, who played to the wire time after time in 2007, and on the other, there’s Texas Tech, one of the nation’s most perpetually thrilling teams, a squad that will always keep both teams in the game. One of the great mysteries of the past season is why Graham Harrell never got the media love that Hawaii’s Colt Brennan did. Harrell led the nation in total offense, and the Red Raider passing attack was tops nationally as well. The QBs were almost identically matched in TDs and efficiency; obviously, Harrell’s competition was much tougher. One thing Harrell had that Brennan didn’t was Michael Crabtree – the freshman sensation topped the nation in receiving TDs and yards per game, and became the first freshman ever to win the Biletnikoff Award, for the nation’s top receiver. Crabtree is an unbelievable talent, and to say UVA will have its hands full with him is the understatement of the year.

Tech’s dink-and-dunk, quick strike passing attack should be able to neutralize the formidable UVA pass rush, which is led by future top-10 pick Chris Long. Long was 3^rd in the nation in sacks this year, but he won’t have near the time he’s used to against the Raiders. Cavalier defenders Clint Sintim and Jeffrey Fitzgerald are also in the top 12 in ACC sackmeisters, but this key component of the UVA defensive approach just won’t be in play against Tech. The Raiders will throw quickly, and pick on mismatches in the UVA secondary. Unfortunately, the Cavs weren’t a great outfit in the back four – middle of the ACC pack defending the pass, despite habitually clamping down in the red zone.

UVA just isn’t cut out to hang with Texas Tech in this game. This is a team just a few points away from being .500, facing an offense that will render completely useless its best defensive asset. A big win for the Big 12 on Jan One. Texas Tech 38, UVA 20.

Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl

2007-12-28T16:14:00.001-06:00

CHICK-FIL-A PEACH BOWL – Dec. 31st, 7:30 EST

Clemson vs. Auburn –

As far as New Year’s eve fare goes, this is a great one, matching up one of the ACC’s classic underachievers against one of the SEC’s chronic overachievers. Without a lot of high-profile talent, at least as far as the SEC goes, Auburn did wonders this year, notching wins over Florida and Alabama, and nearly, so nearly beating soon-to-be national champion LSU. On the other side of the coin, Clemson is the Alabama of the ACC, gagging in big games and looking like giant killers against the sisters of the poor. The Tigers went 9-3 this year, with impressive wins over Wake, South Carolina and Florida State; but against teams with nasty run Ds, they got creamed, taking three on the chin from BC and the two Techs.

There’s an inherent rivalry between the ACC and SEC, with so much mutual turf, and in Clemson, the ACC might have sent the wrong knife to a gun fight. The Tigers have big time weapons in rushers James Davis (83 ypg) and CJ Spiller (54 ypg), and receiver Aaron Kelly (tops in the ACC in ypg). Kelly and junior WR Tyler Grisham were both top five in the league in catches, and if Cullen Harper has time to get them the ball, they’ll do damage. On the other side of the ball, Auburn is a conundrum on defense. They’re awful at getting to QBs, with rankings in the 90s in sacks and TFL. But the pass D is outstanding, at 6^th in the country and 2^nd in the SEC. What’s the explanation? Some great, underappreciated corners, starting with senior Patrick Lee (51 tackles, 4 INT) and sophomore Jerraud Powers (57 tackles, 4 INT). Short of the VA Tech secondary, Auburn’s will probably be the best Clemson has faced this year. Harper, who tossed 27 TDs against just 6 picks this year, will be hard pressed to survive without throwing an INT or two. Despite all the weaponry boasted by Clemson, however, their history of collapsing in big games doesn’t excited me if I’m a South Carolinian.

On the offensive side of the ball, Auburn has the least yards per game of any 8+ win team in the nation, at just 327 ypg. As Ben Tate peaked in mid-season, the Auburn rush game carried the offense to wins at Arkansas and Florida. But Tate lost steam down the stretch, as did freshman Mario Fannin. Brandon Cox has caught a lot of heat from Auburn fans over the years, some deserved, but his lockdown, clutch as clutch can be performances against Florida and LSU this year signified that he’s really turned the corner, finally, to be a very solid SEC QB.

Cox will have a big game in his Auburn swan song, and the boys from Auburn win the battle of the Tigers in surprisingly easy fashion. Auburn 24, Clemson 10.

Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl

2007-12-28T15:51:00.001-06:00

GAYLORD HOTELS MUSIC CITY BOWL – Dec. 31st, 4:00 EST

Kentucky vs. Florida State –

One of the more intriguing bowl matchups went down the toilet when thirty-some Seminole players decided to take a little extra help on exams. Most Vegas books took this game off the live-wagering section a long time ago, with Kentucky as a 3 point favorite or so. Who knows what the line would be now, but it’s almost impossible to imagine that Florida State’s second teamers can hang with the Wildcats, a team that beat LSU and would probably win against FSU’s best.

So, we don’t really know what to expect in this one. We know Kentucky, so let’s talk about the ‘Cats. Andre Woodson is getting lots of buzz as a top ten draft pick in this year’s draft, and he gamely led the ‘Cats offense to the 14^th best scoring output in the nation. Woodson trailed only Heisman-winner Tim Tebow in the SEC in total offense and pass efficiency, and can certainly light up a scoreboard with the best of them. Woodson wasn’t the whole story in Lexington, though; Rafael Little was 3^rd in the SEC in rushing yards and 14^th in receiving yards. Woodson was as good as anyone in the world this season at spreading the ball around to multiple targets. Five, count ‘em five Wildcat receivers were in the top 13 in the SEC in catches. The list includes Keenan Burton, Steve Johnson, Jacob Tamme, Dicky Lyons and Little – all with 4+ catches per game, all great targets to stretch and confuse a defense.

On defense, Jeremy Jarmon is on track to be the next great SEC pass rusher. Jarmon posted 8 sacks this year, and 58 total tackles; if he keeps improving, he’ll be a great one. Wesley Woodyard, a senior LB, led the SEC in tackles with 10.25 a game, and is your classic chase ‘em all over the field type.

This is a short preview, because I’ve got no idea what to expect from the ‘Noles, or if more suspensions will come down in the next few days. This has been an odd season, but if FSU wins a split squad contest against Kentucky just down the road from UK, that’ll take the cake. Kentucky 38, Florida State 14.

Roady's Humanitarian Bowl

2007-12-28T15:32:00.001-06:00

ROADY’S HUMANITARIAN BOWL – Dec. 31st, 2:00 EST

Georgia Tech vs. Fresno State –

Now that Boise State has graduated to bigger and better bowl pastures, the H-Bowl folks have to bring in outsiders to luscious Boise, and they’ve got a contest this year that should compete for the bottom ladder run in bowl attendance and interest. From the ACC, the Ramblin’ Wreck was a walking, talking definition of “mediocrity” this season, finishing 7-5 with a 4-4 conference mark. Tech’s only win over a winning team came in late September, when it somehow beat Clemson, 13-3. From the WAC, Fresno State almost nipped Texas A&M early, then rebounded from a 1-2 start to finish 8-4. Of course, a 6-2 WAC record isn’t world-beater stuff, but when the two losses are to Boise State and Hawaii, you clap your hands, tip your hat, and say “nice year.” Whichever one of these teams wins in Boise will finish on an up note and feel good; the loser will realize how average their season truly was.

The Bulldogs of FSU have a kick return specialist with a name as flashy as his game. A.J. Jefferson, the nation’s leading kickoff return man, averaged 35+ yards per return this year, and ripped off TDs in back to back contests against Utah State and Hawaii. Jefferson’s success with the pig won’t make or break Fresno in this game, but it’ll be fun to watch. Fresno State’s defense doesn’t look great when you crunch the numbers on a national scale; 26.92 ppg allowed is nothing to write home about. However, in the offenses-on-crack world of the WAC, that number is good for 3^rd in the league, and illustrates that the Bulldogs should be able to stay competitive, especially against a lukewarm attack like Georgia Tech’s. The D is led by bruising senior LB Marcus Riley, a top 25 tackler nationwide and of the most effective and consistent stoppers in that league. The rush D isn’t top notch, at 88^th nationally, and that means Tech RB Tashard Choice should get his chances. Choice produced one of the more unheralded seasons of the year, rolling up 110 yards or more in 8 games and giving Taylor Bennett one of the best insurance policies in the country. To top it off, Fresno certainly hasn’t seen a pass rush like Tech’s, which was tops in the nation in sacks, led by linemen Vance Walker and Darrell Robertson.

You’ve always got to be careful of teams excited to play taking on teams in a let down game. I can’t imagine that, in the midst of coaching turnover and coming off an ACC divisional title last year, the mood around Atlanta is buzzing over Boise. Fresno gets an upset that defies explanation. Fresno State 28, Georgia Tech 23.

Meineke Car Care Bowl Preview

2007-12-28T14:09:00.001-06:00

MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL – Dec. 29^th, 1:00 EST

UCONN vs. Wake Forest –

Of all great football stories of 2007, UCONN might have been the most unpredictable. Randy Edsall built a program in Storrs virtually from scratch; ten years ago, before this team was even D-I, bowl games and national rankings weren’t yet a glimmer in Edsall’s eye. However, success didn’t happen over night. Change has been in the water for several years in the great northeast, and this year the tide turned big-time in the form of program changing wins over Louisville, South Florida and Rutgers on three consecutive weekends. Down in Winston-Salem, Wake followed up its ACC championship with a solid, but ho hum 8-4 campaign that would have been much, much better if it had only held off Virginia, to whom the Deacons lost by 1 in early November. Still, Wake boss Jim Grobe is getting offers from every big school that looks for a coach, a tribute to the overhaul he’s done there.

Just like it did to win the title last year, Wake won ugly over and over again this year. How many 8-win teams boast the 97^th best offense in the nation? Virginia Tech, Virginia and Auburn are the only 8-win teams lower on the offensive totem pole, but all three of those squads have defenses in the top 17 nationally; Wake’s isn’t nearly that dominant, ranking just 9^th in the ACC. Yet still, the Deacons have made a living under Grobe by gutting out the close ones, evidenced this year in gut-check wins over Maryland (7, OT), Duke (5) and Florida State (3). In general, Wake isn’t going to beat itself, ranking 16^th nationally in turnover margin this year, but sophomore QB Riley Skinner did show a weakness for the INT, throwing 12 against just 11 TDs this year.

When the Deacons look across the field at UCONN, they’ll see a familiar resemblance. The Huskies have a pretty bad offense (84^th nationally), a great turnover margin (7^th nationally), and won all their big games ugly (Louisville by 4, USF by 7, Temple by 5). These two teams even lost to Virginia by the exact same score, 17-16. Where UCONN is a bit stronger is under center, where Tyler Lorezen boasted a 13:5 TD:INT ratio on the year, and never threw more than 1 pick in a game. Lorenzen can run, too, with a 304 yard total the complimented Andre Dixon (80 ypg) and Donald Brown (68 ypg) throughout the year.

It’s the battle of the uglies in Charlotte, but with a home-state crowd and a lot more experience doing what they do, Wake should win the ball game. UCONN hasn’t won on the road since September 22^nd, and that won’t change now. Wake 20, UCONN 16.

Emerald Bowl Preview

2007-12-28T13:17:00.001-06:00

EMERALD BOWL – Dec. 28^th, 8:30 EST

Maryland vs. Oregon State –

The Terps were one of football’s most confounding squads in 2007. Maryland was as competitive as anyone against West Virginia in the season’s first half. A win at Rutgers and a win at home against Georgia Tech had Maryland at 4-2 and looking like a dark horse ACC title contender. Then home losses to UVA and Clemson preceded a painful road loss at North Carolina, putting Maryland at 4-5 and on the cusp of bowl elimination. But a huge win over BC in the home finale gave the Terps just the boost they needed to sneak in to bowl eligibility at 6-6. Over on the left coast, Oregon State got off to a dubious beginning, dropping lopsided battles at Cincinnati and Arizona State. What we didn’t know in September was that those two squads would be two of college football’s biggest surprises this year, and the losses weren’t nearly as bad as they looked at the time. Since September, the Beavers are a sparkling 6-1, with only a loss at USC against their record.

OSU is second to only Boston College nationally in stopping the run, surrendering just 74.92 yards a game in the pass-happy Pac 10. But the pass D is pretty solid, too, ranking 31^st nationwide in efficiency D, despite giving up quite a few yards. The Beaver defense is led by Derrick Doggett, who averaged 7+ tackles a game and finished 11^th in the Pac-10 in TFL. As good as the rush D was, the pass rush was even better. OSU was 3^rd in the country in sacks and 6^th in TFL; you don’t find a lot of teams that boast 3 of its league’s top 8 sackers, but the Beavers had Victor Butler, Slade Norris and Dorian Smith all in the Pac-10’s top ranks this year. All this is really bad news for the Terps, who were absolutely terrible at protecting its backfield this year. Maryland ranked 107^th nationally in sacks allowed, giving up a brutal 3.17 QB takedowns a game. With OSU bringing the heat, can Chris Turner (3^rd in the ACC in efficiency) avoid the rush and make throws down field? Not likely, as Turner isn’t exactly the model of escapability; with 39 rushes for -14 yards, Turner isn’t the type of QB to beat the Beaver D. To top it off, Keon Lattimore, who started the year with 4 100-yard games in his first five tries, disappeared at midseason, and hasn’t stopped the century mark since September. Leon Bell has been solid in his stead (7^th in ACC rushing yards), but the Terps just don’t have the horses to outrun OSU, especially in San Francisco, where the Beavers will get a virtual home game. Oregon State 35, Maryland 17.

Champs Sports Bowl Preview & Prediction

2007-12-28T12:52:00.000-06:00

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL – Dec. 28^th, 5:00 EST

Boston College vs. Michigan State –

Despite boasting different records, the Eagles and Spartans followed similar trajectories in 2007. MSU burst out of the gates 4-0, making the Mark Dantonio hire look like one of the most astute personnel moves of the offseason. But then came OT losses at Northwestern and Iowa and heartbreakers to Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio State in a 6 game span. The second-half swoon ended with clutch wins over Purdue and Penn State, but everything State did so well in the first half of the year (rush the passer, run the football) began tailing off and never fully recovered. In New England, BC was ranked #2 in the land, and people were touting Matt Ryan as the next great NFL QB, despite his weak pass efficiency rating, mired in the 40s nationally most of the year. Then BC came to Blacksburg, and even though the Eagles escaped with a 14-10 win, they didn’t catch their collective breath until three weeks later, after two devastating losses to Florida State and Maryland. And even though Tech didn’t get the win at home, it finished the job in December that it started in October, rolling to the ACC crown and giving BC its third loss.

Even though this contest hasn’t been talked about much nationally, it strikes me as one of the most intriguing bowl matchups of the season. Each team’s strength plays at the other squad’s strength. Michigan State started the year with the fiercest pass rush in the nation, and even though they’ve since dropped to 12^th nationally in sacks, but getting in to opponents’ backfields is still a priority and skill for the Spartan D. On the other side, BC’s front line was the ACC’s best at protecting its QB this year, allowing 1.46 sacks a game, tops in the conference. Flip the units, and you’ve got BC’s top-ranked national rush D taking on the MSU ground game, which was 23^rd in the country, and features Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick, two of the Big Ten’s top 9 runners.

I picked Michigan State before the bowl season started, but with key components Jonal Saint-Dic, SirDarean Adams and Terry Love left in East Lansing thanks to rules violations, I’ve got to take Boston College. Closer than some think, but a win for the ACC. BC 28, Michigan State 20.

VA Tech BB Preview: Hofstra

2007-12-24T11:56:00.000-06:00

There’s only one opponent for VA Tech over Christmas Week 2007, and it’s the struggling Hofstra Pride on Friday the 28^th. Tech will be looking to salvage some pride after a few recent rough outings. What’s the scoop? Read On:

Hofstra (2-6, 0-1 CAA)

The Pride currently occupy the cellar hole of the Colonial League, made famous to Hokie fans in recent years by the tourney successes of George Mason and James Madison. But Hofstra is on the other end of the 8-ball from those two mid-major beasts, staring at the business end of a 2-6 mark that has seen ugly early season losses to Holy Cross, Stony Brook, St. Francis and Fordham. Ouch. The only two wins have come by a deuce over Manhattan and Charlotte; but during a four game losing streak, the Pride dropped all four by four points or less. So I guess you could say they’ve got a lot of early experience playing in close contests.

The Hofstra attack is dominated by senior guard Antoine Agudio, a four year starter closing in on 2,000 career points. Agudio currently sits at 1,888 points, and its fair to say he knows a little bit about putting the ball in the basket. Agudio has averaged 15, 17, 20 and this year, 26.8 points a game. If he’s still averaging 27 points a game by year’s end, he’ll start to get some national attention as he approaches the 2,500 career point mark.

Agudio is a consistent outside shooter in just about every way. He’s been over 42% from beyond the arc in every year of his career, and he’s consistent game to game as well: in every game but one this year, he’s made at least 3 3-point buckets, and he’s shot at least 6 in every game. He’ll shoot, and he’ll make alot. No way around that. The key to stopping Agudio is - you can’t, really. He’s going to score. But with the added pressure of needing to carry a totally bad team this year, he’s forcing the issue a bit too much. Agudio’s turnover numbers are up to 3.9 a game from last year’s 2.2. If Agudio gets his 25, but Tech can force him in to 4-5 turnovers, Coach Greenberg ought to be satisfied with that performance.

The real key to beating Hofstra is to just not let anyone else beat you. Agudio will get his points. He scored 28 of his team’s 47 at Holy Cross, but the Pride still lost by 14. There just aren’t any other credible weapons. Charles Jenkins is a capable alternative, at 6-foot-3, 220 lb., with a 12.4 ppg, 4.5 rpg average line in his freshman season. He’ll contribute, but he’s nowhere near the put away threat Agudio presents, and not as deft with the outside shot either. Jenkins, too, has committed 3.9 turnovers a game; I think we’ll see as much pressure on the opposing guard corps as we’ve seen this year.

Beyond Agudio and Jenkins, Hofstra has relied on a steady rotation of bodies. No one else averages more than 26 minutes a game, but the leader is transfer Darren Townes, a 6-7 junior from New York City who leads the team with 5.8 boards a night. Townes is mostly a scoring threat on the put back, and hasn’t made a three all year. He’ll get a few rebounds. Some of the other threats are freshman swing Nathaniel Lester, who has exploded in to double digits in three of the last five, junior forward Dane Johnson, the biggest body on the squad, and Lithunian junior forward Arminas Urbutis.

Prediction: Tech is going to win this game by a lot. Antoine Agudio can only do so much. He’ll drain a few threes on the bigger stage, by if the Hokies don’t win this game going away, there’s big reason for concern. VA Tech by 19.

VA Tech BB Preview: Liberty & Wake Forest

2007-12-17T11:59:00.000-06:00

After a disappointing loss to Old Dominion, Virginia Tech returns home for tune it up against Liberty before they’ll have to turn it up at Wake in the ACC opener. What does the week have in store? Check it out:

*all team ratings are RPI, courtesy of www.kenpom.com

Liberty (5-5, 0-5 Big South)

Biggest Win: #71 Niagara, 86-81

Worst Loss: at #334 Campbell, 73-70

The Liberty Flames come to Blacksburg Wednesday looking to get over the .500 hump. Liberty started the year roughly, dropping their first three, but then kicked off a 5-1 run with the only loss coming at Kentucky. Former New Mexico coach Ritchie McKay seemed to have the Flames headed in the right direction; then came Saturday’s devastating loss at the Campbell Camels of Buies Creek, North Carolina. So what Flames team will show up at Cassell?

Senior forward Alex McLean has been unquestionably Liberty’s best player this year. McLean, a Bayshore NY native, came on strong last year with averages of 14.5 ppg and 8.9 rpg. He’s picked up right where he left off last year with numbers of 16.7 ppg and 8.6 rpg, and will probably be a no-doubter first team all Big South lock. McLean has been especially good lately, going over 20 points and 9 rebounds in three of the last four games, including a 33-11 night against Longwood.

However, McLean also played a big role in the brutal loss to Campbell. Despite entering the contest with an 11:6 turnover:assist ratio in his last 6 games, McLean committed turnover after turnover against the Camels, neutralizing his big scoring night and giving Campbell tons of free possessions. Another interesting stat is that McLean has only averaged 2 fouls a game in his last seven contests. That’s a very low number for a 6’8” banger and the team’s leading rebounder. Is he afraid to get physical on defense? I haven’t seen Liberty play quite enough to know for sure, but Tech will be well served to attack him on defense.

Elsewhere, the Flames will get plenty of production and tons of minutes from its guard duo of junior Anthony Smith and sophomore B.J. Jenkins. Smith and Jenkins both average 33+ minutes and 12+ points on the year, and rebound pretty well for little guys too, pitching in 4.2 boards per game to the cause. Jenkins is kind of your classic feast or famine type of player. In four games this year, he’s over 16 points. In the other six, he hasn’t topped 9. Jenkins has already thrown up 46 3-balls in just 10 outings, so he’s obviously not afraid to chuck the ball, whether he’s hitting or not. Smith is the more consistent of the two, with between 8 and 17 points in all but one game this year, but he’s a poor distributor by guard standards, with a brutal 1:2 assist:turnover ratio.

Prediction: Liberty has a few weapons, I guess, but in its one chance to hang with a really talented team, the Flames fizzled. No reason to predict otherwise, especially since Seth Greenberg ought to have his team’s attention. Tech by 14.

At Wake Forest (6-3, 0-0 ACC)

Biggest Win: #193 Bucknell, 72-56

Worst Loss: at #163 Charlotte, 63-59

Here’s what I don’t get about the RPI: The Deacons have lost to all three teams they’ve played above 163, and beaten all six teams they’ve played below 193. So what rating are they? 127. Ugh. But I digress…

The true big loss of the year happened in the offseason, as Wake coach Skip Prosser died suddenly, leaving the Deacons in the hands of longtime assistant and friend Dino Gaudio. We’ll know a lot more about this squad after Wednesday’s informative clash with USF, but for now, this team is a near blank-slate, with nary an interesting win or loss to speak of.

Wake’s best player looks to be freshman James Johnson. Johnson is a 6-foot-8, 200 lb. sinewy beanpole from Cheyenne, Wyoming, but he’s looked right at home on Tobacco Road so far, scoring a bit (12.4 ppg) and rebounding a lot (9.7 rpg). Throw in at least one block in every game but one, 2 steals a game, 5 straight 11 rebound games, and you’re probably looking at an ACC Freshman of the Year frontrunner. At 41.5%, Johnson’s field goal percentage reveals he hasn’t yet developed that college shooting touch, so forcing him to take uncomfortable shots is a key for the Tech D. Surrendering a layup is always bad business, but especially so in this case, because when Johnson gets near the hoop, he’s a beast, with 30 offensive rebounds in the last 6 games.

This is a young team all around, with sophomore L.D. Williams second in scoring, junior guard Harvey Hale third, freshman guard Jeff Teague fourth and sophomore guard Ishmael Smith fifth. The team is almost incredibly youthful, with Hale the only upperclassman averaging above 1 point a game. They’re also small; of the top five scorers, only Johnson is above 6’4, and three of them are sub 6’2, 180 lbs. This is a time for Tech’s bruiser mentality to simmer to the surface. Even if Wake tries to use its bench height to stack up with Tech in the middle, subs Jamie Skeen and Chas McFarland will be playing far more than they’re used to doing.

Prediction: Whatever the basketball equivalent of “punching them in the mouth” is, Tech

needs to do it in Winston-Salem. The Hokies have the horses to beat Wake inside, and I

think they will. Tech by 6.

VA Tech BB Preview: Old Dominion

2007-12-14T12:00:00.000-06:00

The Hokies take a little bus trip down south on Sunday, trekking to Norfolk to battle Old Dominion. What kind of challenge will the Monarchs present? Let’s take a look:

Old Dominion (5-4, 1-0 CAA)

The Monarchs have been a tale of two teams so far. They’ve looked very solid in all the games they’re supposed to win against other mid-majors, clubbing Toledo by 31, Iona by 11 and MD-Eastern Shore by 25. But ODU has been dominated by the big boys, losing by double digits to Clemson, UNC, Louisville and Georgetown, in a game many had circled as a potential upset. So, all told, ODU is playing like a solid mid-major team; taking care of business with clarity in the games they should win, but unable to matchup athletically with the big boys.

ODU is lead in both scoring and rebounding by Gerald Lee, who hails from Uusikaupunki, Finland. Gesundheit! Lee has been in double figures 6 of 10 times this year, averages 13.1 ppg and 6.6 rpg, and uses his 6-10, 255 lb. frame to create some matchup problems inside. Lee has been a nice surprise for the Monarchs this year after averaging just 4 points an outing last year. In Lee’s best outings of the year, he’s drawn some fouls and done damage from the charity stripe. Tech needs to play standup defense and make him make shots without giving him free throws. Even though he leads the team in rebounding, 6.6 isn’t a ton for a guy that large, so the task of keeping him off the boards certainly isn’t impossible.

Another key player to watch is senior point guard Brandon Johnson. Johnson is a 4-year contributor in the ODU system, and looks to be having his most well-rounded year yet. He’s not a big cat, at 6-1, 180 lbs., but Johnson is dropping in 7.4 pts, 4.9 rebs and 5.2 assists on the year. Johnson can do a little bit of everything, evidenced in his near-miss of a triple double in the Toledo contest (9-10-9). He’s the voice of experience out there for the Monarchs, but he is prone to costly turnovers. Johnson is averaging 4 turnovers a game in 2007, way up from 2.3 last year in similar minutes. He’ll make some great passes and some terrible ones, and he’s probably not quite good enough to beat Tech.

After Lee, Johnson and senior Brian Henderson, ODU has 7 guys averaging between 13 and 19 minutes a game. I’m not sure I’m ready to call this a deep lineup, as the Monarchs are trying to find the right mix early in the year. However, the team is obviously comfortable with a large number of different players on the floor, so if the game happens to turn in to a foul-fest or goes extra time, ODU will probably benefit.

Prediction: This ODU lineup feels like the perfect recipe for a big game from A.D. Vassallo. The Monarchs are within a field goal at half, but Vassallo leads a second half scoring run to give Tech a double digit victory. Tech 69, ODU 59.

Is College Football A Sport?

2007-12-05T03:16:00.001-06:00

When at a bar and bored of dull talk, I can always count on one back-pocket conversation piece to kick-start interesting dialogue, regardless of my company.

The game is “Sport/Not a Sport”, and it asks one simple question: Is _________ a sport, or is it not a sport? The game is great because everyone, even non-sports fans, have strong opinions. Women are typically quick to defend gymnastics; guys often advocate rugby. In the last three years, “Sport/Not a Sport” has never failed me, not once, in provoking some interesting barstool conversation.

When judging “Sport/Not a Sport”, I stick to one hard and fast criterion: if a game involves a judge, like figure skating or gymnastics, it’s not a sport. Because my number one standard for a sport, after all, is that its outcomes are settled on the field rather than in the imagination. Based on this standard, the game I love most, college football, must now sadly be reconsidered on its validity as a true sport. With this week’s anointing of Ohio State and LSU as the nation’s two best teams, college football fans have to ask themselves the question: Is this game we love still a real sport?

The NFL selects and seeds its 12 postseason qualifiers based solely on their records. The NBA and the NHL choose 16 on the same criteria. Major League Baseball takes 8. The list goes on; MLS, Wimbledon, the Masters, the World Cup…every major United States sporting event allows its finalists to play off for the title at season or event’s end. Even the NCAA basketball tournament, which does feature a selection process, chooses 64 teams and features one defining caveat: if a team wins their league tournament, they will get a chance to play for the national title.

And yet, college football, the only major American game without a season-ending playoff, is the institution which needs one the most.

Consider this: the most rudimentary of statistical understanding dictates that more trials of a given event will yield more accurate results. For example, flipping a coin 1,000 times will render a heads/tails frequency much closer to the coin’s true nature than doing so just 10 times. And now consider that college football offers its participants the least trials of every major American game. With just 12 games in every season, there are far less trials than the NFL (16), NHL and NBA (82) and Major League Baseball (162). The tiny amount of trials in college football, by comparison, yields a sample size that is woefully inept in its ability to determine a “best team”.

And then there is the matter of cross-pollination. Every NFL team plays 60% of its own conference every single year. Every NBA and NHL team plays every other team in the entire league at least once. There are far more opportunities in these other leagues to judge teams head-to-head, via common opponents, etc. But yet, in college football, top teams rarely, if ever, share a common schedule. Between the six major conference champions (Ohio State, LSU, Oklahoma, USC, West Virginia and Virginia Tech), there was just one head-to-head matchup during this season. How many common opponents did the six teams share? 3, between the 6 (Washington, Miami, Mississippi State), and not a single one of the matchups in question took place after October 20^th.

But see, even now, we are getting off the track. The entire debate, spurred on by the power brokers at ESPN and from the BCS, as to “Who Belongs in the Title Game?” is a red herring, a false choice with no true purpose other than to distract audiences from the lie that is the Bowl Championship Series. With identical records (5 of the above 6 champions have 2 losses) and no shared opponents, it is a puzzle with no interlocking pieces. They all deserve a title shot. There is no answer.

In what true sport would the four teams in competition with one another for a coveted spot (let’s say, Oklahoma, USC, LSU and West Virginia), “compete” against one another, but never see the field of play in the same city on any given Saturday, and have no idea if they had won or lost until the sun rose Sunday morning?

Let us do away, also, with the absurd notion that the BCS system must be preserved because “every week is a playoff.” This idea is ridiculous on its face. If every week were a playoff, Hawaii would be wearing the national championship crown already, as Division I’s only unbeaten team. If every week were a playoff, our two “national championship finalists” would not be teams that had lost their next to last game. If every week were a playoff, it would have to be called a triple-elimination beauty pageant playoff, since two-loss LSU has been selected as the “most impressive” two-loss squad, and given yet another chance at glory in this wackiest of college football seasons.

Advocates of the “every week is a playoff” argument make the crucial mistake of transposing the words “playoff” and “exciting.” No, every week is not a playoff. Every team in the season-end title conversation LOST. So stop with that right now. But yes, every week of football was exciting this season, as exciting as it has ever been.

And do you somehow mean to tell me that if we undertook a system where the 6 major conference winners and the 2 highest rated minor conference winners engaged in an 8 team playoff, things would somehow get less exciting? Do you mean to tell me that if Team A could be guaranteed a spot in the big huzzah by winning its conference title, but have no chance if it didn’t win the conference crown, the year would somehow become less exciting?

No, obviously not. You would have playoff games all over the map on the season’s final day. Missouri v. Oklahoma, LSU v. Tennessee and Virginia Tech v. Boston College would all have been outright, bona fide playoff games, instead of wait-and-see beauty pageants.

If the system rewarded teams for only their conference play, major powers wouldn’t be as afraid to play other powers out of conference. Games like 2005’s Ohio State vs. Texas would become more commonplace. Teams like Hawaii would have a fighting chance of getting a good team to play them, since that team wouldn’t be out of the national title conversation with a loss. Every game would truly matter, so much more so than it does now. It would be great for college football.

And isn’t that was this is supposed to be about? What’s great for college football? Not what’s great for the bowl executives, running their bowls like the exhibition-match, civic events that they are, picking teams who will “draw more” and not teams that are the best available? Not great for the networks, who are somehow convinced that they can squeeze more coverage out of the insulting “Who’s #1” debate instead of the undeniable cash cow that would be a playoff? Isn’t it supposed to be fair?

In closing, I ask you, fan of college football: what real sport would stand for this? What real sport would allow its greatest prize, the crown jewel of America’s favorite past time, the National Championship of College Football, to be decided by judges? What makes college football different now from figure skating, gymnastics, and the like? When records do not matter (LSU has more losses than Kansas and Hawaii combined), when the top teams in consideration never play each other, when the coveted bowls choose teams based on projected attendance instead of quality, what are we left to do other than wonder why the regular season even matters?

Why play a conference championship game, like Missouri did, when losing will put you below the team you just beat (Kansas) the previous week? Why play a season at all when you’re Hawaii, and you are the only team in the entire nation to go undefeated, but you can’t get anyone to come to the islands to play you? Why do it? What does it matter?

I have nothing against LSU. They are as good a choice as any given the false choice with which we have been presented. They may very well be the 1^st, 2^nd or 5^th best football team in the country. No one alive could make a convincing argument that LSU is definitively better or worse than Ohio State, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, USC or Hawaii.

As the old adage goes, “That’s why they play the games.”

Except in college football, they don’t.

Googling, Volume 2

2007-12-01T04:42:00.000-06:00

Hey guys. It's 5:42 Eastern time, the morning before the Marathon MAC Championship Game. As you know (I've you've EVER read this blog), I've been to 15 MAC games this year, and obviously the title tilt here in Detroit between Central Michigan and Miami is the culmination of not only my book, but also one hell of a MAC season.

I'm so excited I can't sleep.

Trying to pass the time until they start the continental breakfast starts here at the Comfort Inn (15 minutes and counting), I'm going to tell you some of the things people have been Googling to find this blog. I like to do this now and then because A. its hilarious, and B. I want to make sure these people come back.

Here's how my readers have been getting here the last few days:

"brian biere"
"why i hate brett favre"
"canadian club review" (is this a sandwich or a vodka? I can't decide)
"joe paterno shits himself on the sideline" (yep)
"Uva vs. va tech picks" (gamblers in the house!)
"utep power ranking" (single tear)
"bowl implications ECU vs. Tulane"

Let me address this last one for a minute. "Bowl implications ECU vs. Tulane". Tulane is totally out of the bowl picture, 4-7 or something. So, no implication there. ECU was solidly mired in 2nd place in the C-USA East when this game happened, and their bowl stock wasn't going to improve or deteriorate based on what they did in this game UNLESS UCF lost this weekend. So really, since ECU would go bowling really no matter what, and they're a better draw than anyone else in the East, I would almost venture to say that this game at ABSOLUTELY NO BOWL IMPLICATIONS WHATSOEVER.

This gives me an interesting idea, however, for a new feature on the website.

Why not do features on things people are looking for here, but can't find?

For example - why not do a profile on this?

A photo essay on Paterno shitting his pants on the sidelines?

Why not create a drink called the Canadian Club, and eat it with Canadian Club sandwich?

I'm saying its a very elite form of Grey Goose, except for you have to pay a monthly fee to get your monthly bottle, and the sandwich is a club, except with Canadian Bacon instead of regular bacon. Isn't this possible?

C-USA Title Game Preview

2007-11-30T18:52:00.000-06:00

The Golden Hurricane are a touchdown-sized underdog to UCF in this weekend’s C-USA title tilt in Orlando. Can Paul Smith and Tulsa make this trip to Disney a happy one? Let’s take a good hard look at the opponent:

UCF (9-3, 7-1)

Offense: The Knights’ offensive attack, quite frankly, begins and ends with running back Kevin Smith. All told, the offense is 33^rd best in the nation and 4^th in C-USA at 425.67 yards per game. The rushing attack has rolled up an awesome 237 yards per outing, good for 10^th nationally and 2^nd in the league. Smith is the horse, leading the nation at 180 yards per game. Smith is a fantastic running back in almost every way; he’s productive, obviously, but he’s also durable, with 20 or more carries in 11 of 12 games this year, and he’s consistent, with 124 yards or more in the same 11 games. A telling stat is this: in UCF’s three losses, Smith has put up his 9^th, 10^th and 12^th biggest rushing outings of the year. If Tulsa holds him to 140 yards or less, it’ll win. Period.

Under center, senior Kyle Israel has been the Knights’ mostly primetime signal caller after splitting a few early snaps with Michael Greco. The passing offense is 98^th in the nation and worst in the C-USA, but some of the weakness is due to the huge emphasis on running the football. In efficiency, UCF ranks 49^th nationally, a serviceable number, and Israel has been just good enough to take the heat off Smith. Israel is in the top 40 nationally in QB rating, with one of the best outings coming against Tulsa in October, where he threw for 21-29 for 224 yards and a TD. He’s certainly been better later in the year, with at least one TD the last 6 games, but he’s also thrown a pick in each of the last 4. The UCF attack shapes up as a classic “gang up on Smith, and make Israel beat you.” He might, but that strategy is truly Tulsa’s only hope.

Rocky Ross leads UCF in most receiving categories, with 3.75 catches and 47.33 per game. Ross is probably the only receiver in the country with almost 600 yards on the year that hasn’t topped 100 in any single game this year. He’s not a guy that is going to go off for 12 catches and 150 yards, but he is Israel’s standby in the passing game. The reality is, because Smith is going to draw all Tulsa’s focus, Ross will get his catches. Can they come at times which don’t break the D’s backs? We’ll see.

The offensive line O’Leary has built is a good one, and not just at plowing turf for Smith to conquer. They’ve protected Israel to the tune of just 1.33 sacks allowed per game, good for 2^nd in the C-USA. However, they are vulnerable. UCF doesn’t throw much, but Tulsa has to be much more active on the defensive front than in the October meeting. Roy Roberts got Tulsa’s only sack in part one. If Tulsa has to bring blitzes to get pressure, the potential for Smith’s home run scampers goes up a ton.

Defense: UCF’s D is one of the more balanced outfits in the C-USA. Ranking 46^th in rushing D, 53^rd in total D and 65^th in scoring. They haven’t been great in the red zone, so Tulsa will have to convert on every chance they can.

The overall strength of the D is certainly against the pass, setting up a great matchup with Paul Smith and the Tulsa offense. UCF’s pass efficiency is 1^st in the C-USA. They’re only 5^th in yards allowed, but that’s because they’ve got the most wins in the league and are constantly in the lead. It starts up front, where UCF is tops in the league in sacks and 3^rd in tackles for loss.

Sophomore linebacker Bruce Miller is a breakout star in the league, with 6 solo sacks and 33 total tackles. Miller got to Paul Smith twice in Orlando, Part One for two big sacks, and somebody better put a hat on him, because he’s got 5 sacks in the last 6 games, and will be Smith’s public enemy number one when he drops back to pass. Senior DL Leger Douzable also has 5 solo sacks and 12 TFL. It seems like Douzable’s tackles are always back breakers, with 50 total loss yards on the 12 this year. He’s a big key to UCF’s D, setting opponents in 2^nd/3^rd and unconvertible longs.

In the secondary, Joe Burnett is the guy avoid, with a conference leading 6 INT. Burnett is yet another member of the UCF defense that is on fire lately, with 4 picks in the last three games. Burnett is a pretty decent punt returner, too, when he gets the chance, but his main function is as a pass-deterrent, and he’s pretty good at it. Elsewhere in the secondary, Sha’reff Rashad is kind of a feast or famine ‘backer. Yeah, he’s got the 4 picks, but he also struggles to cover receivers in certain situations and is forced to make a ton of solo tackles to compensate. Rashad, in my mind, is the guy to pick on in the UCF secondary.

Special Teams: While Burnett is decent on the punt returns, Curtis Francis is the home run hitter returning kickoffs for the Knights. At 9^th in the nation with a 29 yards per return average, he hasn’t gotten a ton of chances to return balls since taking one to the house against East Carolina. Nevertheless, if he’s on the field, he shouldn’t be kicked to. Michael Torres is one of the nation’s most accurate kickers, with 16 of 18 field goals and 45 of 46 extra points. He’s obviously not part of the defensive game plan, but if Tulsa finds their chances riding on a Torres miss, they’ll be disappointed.

Prediction: Tulsa’s up against it in this one, folks. Almost everything UCF does well plays in to beating the Golden Hurricane, and we’ve already seen it once in the 44-23 drubbing in October. No way this contest gets that out of hand, but I don’t think Tulsa can hold Smith to a buck fifty, and Paul Smith might struggle just enough with the UCF corners to make one too many mistakes. I hope I’m wrong, but the money’s on UCF: UCF 38, Tulsa 28.

ACC Title Game Preview

2007-11-28T16:47:00.000-06:00

Here we go again. It’s VT and BC for all the ACC marbles. This is the rematch most, if not all, Tech fans wanted, and now they’ve got it. I would say ‘be careful what you wish for’, but it’s a bit too late for that. Here we go, Hokies. Saturday preview, ACC Championship style:

Boston College (10-2, 6-2 ACC)

Offense: The BC attack is still led by Matt Ryan, who is still a great college quarterback, but the bloom is off the rose to some degree since BC lost twice to start November. Once BC got a couple losses on its resume, people started to notice that Ryan’s efficiency numbers were still lingering in the mid 40s nationally. Right now, Ryan sits at 52^nd in the country, which is still startling low for a QB being talked up as such a high round draft choice. The myth that a QB should be judged by wins alone is one of the great fallacies of football analysis, and Ryan gets a pass for his shortcomings as long as BC wins. Nevertheless, all it took was 5 great minutes from Ryan and the offense to offset 55 great ones from the VA Tech defense to get a win in Blacksburg.

Rushing isn’t the focus of the BC attack, but even when it is, the Eagles haven’t been great. I find it hard to believe that Andre Callender’s 902 rushing yards rank him 4^th in the ACC, but it’s a fact, and Callender hasn’t been good at all down the stretch, gaining just 278 yards in the last 5 games. Where Callender, and the entire BC offense has been excellent is in finding RBs out of the backfield. The senior has 43 catches in just the last 6 games, for 438 yards. That’s big time performance out of the backfield. Big time.

Speaking of receiving, the attack obviously doesn’t stop with Callender. Junior Brandon Robinson caught 50 balls in the season’s first 11 games, for 14.4 yards per catch, but didn’t play in the finale against Miami and can’t be counted on this weekend either. Sophomore Ryan Gunnell was outstanding in his stead, catching 9 balls for 135 yards. Gunnell was surprisingly good all year, with 54 catches for 749 yards, but looked especially deadly filling in for Robinson. Junior TE Ryan Purvis has 50 catches for 521 yards. Senior WR Kevin Challenger has 40 catches for 500 yards. The scariest thing about this BC attack is not Matt Ryan. I repeat: it’s not Matt Ryan. The scariest thing is the massive allotment of capable receivers, and the fact that any can step up on any day.

Up front, BC probably has best offensive line in the league. Tops in the league in protecting its QB, the BC line gives up 1.50 sacks a game, and that’s a pretty good number considering how much the Eagles throw the football. Ryan isn’t winning any elusiveness contests either, so you’ve got to give this line credit. Fans of the hogmollies have to be licking their chops getting ready to watch the VT front 7 do battle with this line.

Defense: Brandon Ore had some nice success against the BC defense in Round One, rushing for 97 yards on 20 carries, and Sean Glennon wasn’t bad either, throwing for 149 yards on 15 of 25 passing. Of course, Tech only put up 10 points, but efficiency and yardage wasn’t a huge problem.

The BC rush D is tops in the ACC and 2^nd in the nation, giving up just 66 yards per game. There aren’t a ton of dynamic offenses on the BC schedule, but that’s a great number up front. Up front, LB Alex Albright has 8 solo sacks and senior DL Nick Larkin has 4 solo sacks. These guys aren’t just stout against the run, they’re beasts at rushing the passer, and can hurt you in any number of ways. Jolonn Dunbar and Mark Herzlich are the 2^nd and 3^rd top tacklers on the team, and both had double digit tackle numbers in Blacksburg. They must be stopped. Period. They must be stopped.

DB Jamie Silva has 254 career tackles and 11 picks, including 110 this year. Silva made 15 solo tackles against FSU, which probably meant he wasn’t covering receivers well enough. He’s not a top flight cover corner, but when he has a chance to make a tackle, he doesn’t miss often. BC’s overall pass numbers aren’t great, but they’re a bit misleading. When you’re almost always ahead, teams throw on you. However, this is a secondary that ranks 106^th in the nation in pass defense, a brutal number especially in a league lacking many truly top-flight QBs. In fact, the best QB in the league plays on their own team. VT has to win this game through the air.

Special Teams: The biggest special teams play of the year in perhaps the entire ACC came in Round One when BC recovered an onside kick and went on to win the game. Kicker Steve Aponavicius hasn’t had a chance to kick a ton of field goals, but he’s been decent when given the chance, making 10 of 15. Not great, but decent. He probably won’t lose the game for BC. Punter Johnny Ayers booted for a 45 yard average on 9 punts in Blacksburg, and helped keep the Hokies far away from the goal.

Prediction: Virginia Tech gave away one game this year to BC. It won’t happen again. The Hokies have been wanting this rematch since October, and they’ve got it. VT is a 6 or so point favorite, and justifiably so. Matt Ryan hasn’t gotten any better since Blacksburg, and Sean Glennon has gotten much, much better. BC will dare Glennon to beat them, and guess what: he will. Virginia Tech 27, Boston College 17.

SEC Power Rankings: Final

2007-11-28T14:51:00.000-06:00

Before we could blink, Nutt was out, and Nutt was in. The embattled Hogs coach has a new zipcode in Athens, and his hot seat in Fayetteville is still warm. How would the teams stack up on a neutral field tomorrow? Check it:

Georgia – The Bulldogs sit at 10-2, on the cusp of the national title contest, and cozily at home in front of the televisions for the SEC championship game. Obviously, every true Dawg would love a shot at the conference title, but with all the unpredictability in the nation this year, there has to be just a small part of every Georgia heart that doesn’t mind the view from the sofa. My SEC Coach of the Year ballot goes: 1. Mark Richt, 2. Sylvester Croom, 3. Tommy Tuberville.
Auburn – Yep, these are the best Tigers in the league. Auburn barely lost at LSU, and on a neutral field, there’s no reason to think Auburn wouldn’t pull out the win. Everyone freaked out early in the year when the Tigers lost at home to USF and Mississippi State. I’m not saying those were good losses, by any stretch, but looking at the season in hindsight: two September losses to quality bowl teams, two late season losses on the road to top-10 teams. Best 8-4 team in the country.
LSU – I’ve been saying it for weeks, but the Tiger defense has been incredibly average dating all the way back to the beginning of October. The repeated national recitation that LSU’s defense is a world beater is a classic example of how the national media picks a perception and then stops doing homework. Since beating Mississippi State 45-0, the Tiger D didn’t hold a single SEC offense below 24 points in regulation. Even in a league this loaded, that’s an impressive record of mediocrity.
Florida – Do you have any idea how badly the Gators are going to destroy whoever the Big Ten’s 4^th best team is in whatever Florida bowl they end up in? If Tim Tebow doesn’t win the Heisman, the biggest reason might be Tennessee and Kentucky’s 4 OT classic in Lexington. While Tebow was lighting up the ‘Noles with deadly passes to every part of the field, most of the country couldn’t see it because they were stuck watching UT and UK do battle.
Tennessee – The Vols got another “impressive” win that toed the line between lackluster and gutsy. Despite leading by a ton early, Kentucky had the game won at least twice, but couldn’t finish, sending the Vols to the title game. With UT and LSU both coming off multiple OT games with national and conference championships on the line, I’m betting we get some sloppy play in the first half of this weekend’s contest.
Kentucky – Only one team could win in Lexington, and somehow it didn’t end up being Kentucky. I get the feeling that 49 out of 50 states of the union were pulling for the ‘Cats, but a blocked FG and some poor red zone play calling by the UK offensive team kept the nation’s new longest heads up losing streak alive. You want the best evidence going that the SEC is much stronger than every other major league? UK finished 10^th in the SEC standings. 10^th place in the Big 12, Big 10, ACC and Pac-10? Nebraska, Northwestern, North Carolina, and Stanford. UK might be an all-star team of those four schools.
Arkansas – I gotta give credit to Arkansas for its win at LSU this weekend. Talk about vengeance. After a loss to LSU in the Rock last season cost Arkansas a shot at the national title, the Hawgs circled the wagons and exacted sweet revenge in the Bayou on the back of Darren McFadden and a very good offensive line. How do they celebrate revenge in Fayetteville? Sending the winning coach on the first train out of town, to Athens, Mississippi of all places.
South Carolina – Spurrier to LSU? That’s the whisper I keep hearing in SEC circles, and while I’m not totally sold, it would be an almost Shakespearean journey full circle. Nick Saban left LSU to coach in the pros, found himself overmatched and confused, and returned home to an SEC rival. Who might end up in his old digs? Spurrier, who left Florida to coach in the pros, found himself overmatched and confused, and returned home to an SEC rival. It’s rich. I hope it happens.
Mississippi State – Whew. The Bulldogs almost blew the whole thing with an awful first three quarters in the Egg Bowl, but somehow got it going just in time to beat Ole Miss and earn a bowl bid. I absolutely loved the display of emotion from Sly Croom after the game. In an era where plenty of coaches use every chance they get to campaign for players to win awards (Houston Nutt) or campaign for the next job (Brian Kelly), Croom almost couldn’t speak, he was so proud of his team’s journey this year. Bravo, Sly.
Alabama – What’s left to say about Alabama? 6-6 and probably out of the bowl hunt, ‘Bama had no offense (75^th in yards), no pass defense (9^th in the SEC), a poor QB (99^th in QB rating) and no consistency. Hold the groundbreaking on the Saban statue.
Vanderbilt – They brought this on themselves. Vandy had every chance in the world to go bowling this year. But they couldn’t finish against Georgia, couldn’t finish against Kentucky, couldn’t finish against Tennessee, and scheduled the defending ACC champion in late November. They brought this on themselves.
Ole Miss – Out with the Orgeron, in with the Nutt. David Cutcliffe had 5 of 6 winning season and got canned. Orgeron, hired as an ace recruiter, was given 3 seasons and 2 recruiting campaigns to build a team. Now comes Houston Nutt, who isn’t exactly known as a great game day schemer. ESPN’s Pat Forde wrote this week that no school in the nation has more ridiculous expectations than the Rebs. I can’t disagree.

C-USA Power Rankings: Final

2007-11-28T14:02:00.000-06:00

Two 2,000 yard rushers, three coaching changes and a boat load of points. And that’s just the last two weeks. Final C-USA Power Rankings of the year, on three. Ready, break!

UCF – I lean toward the Knights this week. Tulsa impressed me a lot in recent weeks, but didn’t bring it at Rice this weekend, and it’s hard to argue with the league’s best conference record and, perhaps, the league’s best player. Anyone a bit surprised that Vegas has UCF a full 7 point favorite over the Golden Hurricane. I am.
Tulsa – Paul Smith led the league in passing yards by almost 1,000, a pretty amazing feat in any league, and even more so in the C-USA where defenses almost seem disappointed if you don’t throw for 300 on them. And yet Tulsa just couldn’t put away Rice, giving up 700 yards and an astounding 38 first downs in 104 plays against the Owls. Will the defense make the trip to Orlando, or just let Smith fend for himself?
Houston – Cougar coach Art Briles is headed to Baylor to take on one of D-I’s hardest, least glamorous and most frustrating jobs. He leaves behind a Cougar program with a recent track record of success that should be bowling again this year. What kind of coach will Houston get to take over a program on the rise in prime recruiting territory in a conference where you can make a splash early? I’m betting it’s a good one. Todd Dodge from North Texas? Maybe.
ECU – I’ve said it before, but if the Pirates don’t snag a bowl bid, Skip Holtz needs only look at his schedule makers. This is truly a top flight C-USA team/program now. There’s no excuse to miss a bowl game because they’re playing VA Tech, No. Carolina, W. Virginia and NC State in the same season. None. You’re telling me the Pirates can’t get a home and home with a top MAC or Sun Belt school and get it on ESPN2 early in the year?
Memphis – The Tigers’ turnaround this year was truly one that could pay huge dividends for this program down the road. I’m not in the locker room, so I don’t know what went on in there, but Memphis rallied to win 6 of its last 7 C-USA games following the tragic death of lineman Taylor Bradford after the team had looked pretty awful, starting 0-3 against FBS teams in the month of September. Now, the Tigers are off to the New Orleans Bowl. Well done, Memphis.
Southern Miss – OK, Southern Miss. Who exactly do you think you are? The company line is that Jeff Bower “resigned”, but we’ve heard that one before. The writing is on the wall that FBS’ 4^th longest tenured head coach was forced out following a 5-3/7-5 season that will end when the Golden Eagles play a major Big East school in the PapaJohns.com Bowl on December 22. If, indeed, Bower was shown the door, there better be some serious behind-the-scenes stuff going on, because if not…So. Miss is buried in SEC territory, and now under the shadow of the improving Mississippi State. There’s a difference between ambition and folly. Firing Bower would qualify as the latter.
Tulane – You’re Matt Forte. You ran for 2,127 yards and 23 TD. You’re a beast. But the rest of your team is really, really bad, you’re getting no love from the national media, you’re going nowhere for the holidays except Christmas dinner, and there’s a great chance you won’t finish better than 3^rd in the voting for player of the year in your own conference. Maybe you can ask Santa for a passing game.
Marshall – From the Better Late Than Never File, Bernard Morris set the league on fire starting Halloween weekend, turning Huntington in to the C-USA’s most formidable homefield advantage over the homestretch. Marshall went 3-0 at home starting with the Rice win. Maybe next year they’ll win a road game.
Rice – If somebody has a fire extinguisher, they may want to use it on Chase Clement. Clement threw for 1,658 yards in the last four games, and ran for over 300 yards in those four contests as well. Good grief. 26:9 TD:INT ratio in C-USA play ain’t too bad either. Can Clement make a run in the player of the year race next year? It almost helps that the Rice D is so bad…the more 60 passing attempt games for Clement, the better.
UTEP – Second half Miners, meet first half Miners. First half Miners were 4-2, and they beat Tulsa, the league’s most explosive team. The First Half Miners fought until the end of games, and always provided exciting finishes. Isn’t that impressive? They even battled deadly Texas Tech all the way to the end of the game. What’s that, Second Half Miners? You don’t know how these guys turned in to you and your 0-6 second half record? Me neither.
SMU – When did Phil Bennett lose this time? The season opening 49-9 drubbing vs. Texas Tech? The brutal 21-7 loss at TCU they really should have won? The official announcement of his firing? Maybe he never did, considering the Ponies were with 10 points in 6 of the 8 C-USA losses. Regardless, it’s the beginning of a new era in Dallas. Here’s betting the coaching pool at Houston is a bit better.
UAB – The Blazers outpaced SMU in wins, but the losses were much, much uglier. Where as SMU was within 10 in 75% of the league games, UAB was beaten by 16 or more in 60% of its losses this year. Looking across the border at the Southern Miss coaching staff getting pinkslips, you think the UAB staff expanded office hours?

MAC Power Rankings: Final

2007-11-28T12:32:00.000-06:00

This is it for 2007. We’ve got a championship game in the offing, but the regular season is in the can. It’s been a typically wild year; lots of great finishes, explosive offense, and great storylines all over the league. For old time’s sake, how do they stack up this Wednesday morning? Let’s do it:

Ball State – I’ve thought all year that the Cardinals are the league’s best team, and I’m sticking to it. BSU has only itself to blame for not earning the trip to Detroit this weekend, and that’ll be true if they don’t go bowling as well. But they really deserve it. This team could definitely give a mid-pack Big East team a run in the International Bowl.
Central Michigan – CMU is a 4 point favorite in Detroit this weekend, and I think the Chips will defend their title with a win over Miami. The Chippewas have taken care of business in every MAC game that mattered this year, and I think they’ll earn a touchdown win the title tilt. Dan LeFevour and Antonio Brown are near locks for Player and Freshman of the Year.
Miami – You could make a compelling argument for Bowling Green in this spot, based on its 8 wins and better overall MAC record. However, I give the Redhawks a pass of sorts for the Ohio loss. They already had the East wrapped up, and they were playing a road game against a rival playing for a .500 season. Oh yeah, and they beat BGSU by about 200 just four weeks ago. Will Shane Montgomery edge Turner Gill for coach of the year? It’ll be close, believe me.
Bowling Green – The Falcons should be bowling somewhere after a dominating win over Toledo with the Peace Pipe on the line. Let me make a quick case for the Falcons making a bowl game: they’ve won their last 4 games, they’re 8-4, they score a ton of points, they have three players that can throw, run and catch TDs, and after speaking to a few fans at the Battle for I-95, I have a gut feeling they’ll travel.
Buffalo – I’m sticking with the Bulls in the upper division even though they undeniably lost a step late in the year. Still, 5-7 is a monumental step forward for this team, and I’m in the camp thinking that Coach Gill will be around for a couple years, at least. Buffalo will have to go a bowl game before speculation turns to offers, and I’m telling you right now – next year will be that year. Meet your 2008 MAC Champs.
Ohio – The Bobcats showed glimmers of what we expected from them all year in a season-ending win over Miami, and a wrap-up streak that saw them win 3 of their last 4, including triumphs over BGSU and the Redhawks. Based on results alone, you’d have to conclude this team had a hard time bringing it’s A game every night: wins over the division’s best two teams, and losses to the worst two.
Western Michigan – I’ve been skeptical of WMU all year, but I’ve got to give them big ups for finishing the year strong when some teams would have packed it in and gotten out the golf clubs. The win at Iowa wasn’t over a great team, but it was a Big Ten win, and the Broncos capped the year by pounding Temple. Can Bill Cubit figure out how to get along with QB Tim Hiller in the offseason?
Akron – Akron gave CMU a big scare on the penultimate senior day in the Rubber Bowl before succumbing to the top seeded Chips. Jabari Arthur had a pretty monster year statistically, with 86 catches and 1171 yards, but every time I saw this team in person, Arthur never really seemed in the flow of the offense. Still, the numbers don’t lie, and he was the best receiver in the league on numbers alone.
Eastern Michigan – Along with Ohio, the Eagles were the most confusing team in the league this year, bringing the big guns to in-state showdowns against WMU and CMU (to win the Michigan MAC), but failing to do much of anything against the rest of the league. In hindsight, it makes a bit of sense – the cross-state showdowns gave EMU a little extra juice, but Jeff Genyk doesn’t have the horses for the entire 12 game grind. Yet.
Toledo – If you want to be entertained, the Rockets are your team. No team in the league was as capable of putting up 70 (vs. NIU), giving up 30 (9 times out of 12), winning dramatic last-minute victories (by 1 over ISU and Liberty) or possessing any number of thrilling characteristics. Jalen Parmele is the most underrated player in the league, but at least the Rockets are exciting.
Temple – The budding rivalry in this league is Al Golden vs. Turner Gill, and Temple vs. Buffalo. Geographically, the schools are the league’s two outsiders to the East. They’re also the league’s two most recent admits. Throw in to the mix that each coach has his program on the rise and you’ve got a rivalry for the MAC’s eastern seaboard that will last as long as each coach does at his respective school. In this writer’s mind, they’re also the top two picks for the East in 2008.
Kent State – Hopefully, KSU coach Doug Martin gave thanks for Eugene Jarvis over Thanksgiving turkey. Jarvis ended the year with a league leading rushing 1669 yards, and a team leading 306 receiving yards. That’s almost 2000 yards on a team where no one else topped 500, and that player, Julian Edelman, missed the season’s second half with injuries. How bad would 3-9 KSU have been without Jarvis?
Northern Illinois – Congratulations, Joe Novak. You built a solid program, gave the NIU fans tons of great memories, gave the NFL some great small-college running backs, won a couple division titles. You also made a lot of friends along the way, known around the league press as the consummate nice guy who did things with class and a sense of humor. Well done, sir.

C-USA Preview: Week 13

2007-11-20T00:26:00.000-06:00

Some of the nation is done for the year, but not C-USA. All 12 conference teams are in action on the season’s final big weekend, and both divisions are still in question. What’s big, what’s blah, and what’s somewhere in between? Check it:

Game of the Week:
Tulsa at Rice - Win, and you’re in (Part 1). Tulsa needs a win over Todd Graham’s old Rice squad to advance to the conference title game. The ‘Cane deftly avoided a landmine at Army last week, and should come to Houston a bit more focused and sharp than they were in upstate New York. Still, these are the kind of games that tend to surprise folks, what with Rice’s resurgent play of late and the Graham factor to add a little awkwardness to the equation. I think Tulsa returns to its days of squeakin’ it out, getting a late Paul Smith TD to ice the win and the title. Tulsa 38, Rice 30.

UTEP at UCF - Win and you’re in (Part 2). With a victory over UTEP, the Knights won’t just advance to the title game, they’ll host it, with the league’s best overall mark at 9-3 and 7-1. The Knights are currently on a 5 game heater that started with a Week 8 triumph over Tulsa. UTEP has stunk up the joint since failing to capitalize on a fortuitous midseason homestand, but I’ve gotta think the Miners have one big outing left in them. IF UTEP comes out with a chip on its shoulder, this one stays close. That’s a big IF, but I don’t think UCF ices it until late, late in the fourth. UCF 41, UTEP 30.

Best of the Rest:
Tulane at E. Carolina - The Pirates are still shaking their heads over the Marshall loss, which will haunt the bunch well in to the offseason. Still, if ECU gets to 7-5 with a win over Tulane, they’ll be bowling. ECU is one of the best equipped Ds in the league to stop yardage machine Matt Forte, and nobody takes care of the ball better than the Pirates, who lead the league in turnover margin with a whopping +1.27 per game. Forte gets 150, but ECU gets the win and the postseason ticket. ECU 38, Tulane 20.

Ho Hum:
Arkansas State at Southern Miss - The Golden Eagles are one of three key C-USA teams sitting on 6-5 and needing a win to really cement the bowl hopes. The Indians are a scrappy Sun Belt squad that caused big problems for good teams early (lost by 8 to Texas, beat Memphis), so So. Miss knows they’re dangerous. Still, the gut says that the Eagles are significantly better and have too much to play for following a topsy turvy regular season. Show me another team that has lost to Rice but beaten ECU. So. Miss 38, Arkansas State 29.

SMU at Memphis - The Tigers are rolling, with four wins in their last five, and only the triumph over UAB not coming down to the wire. Now, they get SMU, who hasn’t won sine September, trying to send off coach Phil Bennett in atypical fashion: with a win. Martin Hankins might be the second half MVP of the C-USA, and he should be in line for another big game here. Still, beware: SMU has a ton of close losses, and the Tigers have a ton of close wins. Eventually, the ball has to bounce the other way. Memphis 34, SMU 30.

Booooooring:
UAB at Marshall - OK, this game probably won’t BE boring, but the implications are. UAB is playing for...uh, pride? The term is loosely defined when applied to a UAB squad that hasn’t been within two TDs in any of its losses since September. The Blazers are trying to claw their way out of last, but no visiting team has won in Huntington since Southern Miss on October 21st. When you look at this UAB squad, do you see “trend buster”? Didn’t think so. Marshall 40, UAB 16.

Texas Southern at Houston - The Cougars will put on a good show in whatever bowl they end up in, assuming they take care of business against Texas Southern this weekend. It shouldn’t be a problem, although it may take until a bowl game for the Cougs to get over the humiliation at Tulsa. I don’t know alot about Texas Southern, but I know this: this is a 0-10 FCS team playing on the road against a relative in-state power. They’ll play with heart, but very little skill. Houston 48, Texas Southern 9.

Preview: Virginia Tech at Virginia

2007-11-19T23:15:00.000-06:00

This is it. In-state ACC rivals that took last spring’s basketball crown down to the wire are headed to the finish line neck and neck in football as well. No hype necessary. Who wins the Commonwealth and the division in 2007? Let’s get to it:

Virginia (9-2, 6-1 ACC)

Offense: The Cavs haven’t been very good on offense this year. Their rushing attack ranks 88th nationally, the passing attack is 73rd. On total yards, they rank 99th. Scoring, 80th. However, that being said, the ACC has been a league dominated by defense. Even the 99th ranked total yardage D is only 8th out of 12 in the league, not bad considering there are only 20 worse teams in all of FBS, and 4 of them happen to be in the ACC.
QB Jameel Sewell ranks 5th in the league in total offense and is one of the big reasons the Cavs have been able to squeak out 5 wins by 2 points or less. Sewell has made some big throws down the stretch to put UVA in positions to kick late FGs or run clock at crucial moments. In the two recent games where his arm hasn’t been the story, his legs have been. Sewell ran for 64 yards against Pitt and 66 against UCONN, meaning he’s put up 200 yards of total offense for 7 straight games, dating back to September 22. You can’t buy that kind of consistency at QB, and Sewell deserves serious consideration for ACC MVP - not best player, but most valuable player.
The running game isn’t great, but sophomore back Mikell Simpson has come on in recent weeks. After gaining negative -9 yards in the Cavs’ first 7 games, Simpson has come on in full time duty for 328 yards in the last 4 games, giving UVA an efficient counterpunch to Sewell’s passing. Simpson hasn’t had a big game against a top-flight D of VA Tech’s caliber, so this test should be interesting. Keith Payne hasn’t seen much playing time since Simpson started to heat up, but when he goes, the freshman can gain some yards as well; 69 against Maryland and 70 vs. MTSU. Sewell gets a few carries as well, averaging about 20 yards a game rushing, a decent number considering how harmful the 2.07 sacks per game surrendered by the Cavs hurt his rushing numbers.
As for the rest of the offense, UVA does a nice job of distribution, getting 3 catches per game from three different receivers. Simpson hasn’t been consistent throughout the year, but his astounding 13-catch, 152 yard performance against Maryland has him at the top of the catch list. Jonathan Stupar, a senior TE, has been a rock for Sewell, catching 2 or more passes in every game but one all year. Stupar is one of the best safety valves you’ll see, and look for him to have a huge game as Sewell will likely have to throw a lot of dump passes in the face of VA Tech’s pass rush.
The offensive line has been pretty ho hum, giving up 2.09 sacks a game, 5th in the league. Sewell does have some scramble ability, so that’s not a great number. Like every unit on the squad, this bunch has stepped it up in the fourth quarter. They won’t wear down - VA Tech has to bring heat for 60 minutes.

Defense: Overall, the D has been the strength of the Cavs, by far. 17.45 points allowe per game is good for 10th nationally, and second in the ACC to only your Hokies. The D is also 18th in yards, and the squad as a whole is 39th in turnover margin. You’d be hard pressed to find an overall unit as balanced as UVA. The Cavs are 23rd nationally against the pass and 18th against the run. More than anything, this may be a function of how many close games UVA has been in, so teams rarely go in to strictly run or pass modes.
The front seven is pretty darn good, ranking 13th nationally in sacks, and that all starts with Chris Long, son of legendary linebacker Howie Long. Long is a ferocious talent at DL, with 12 sacks on the year, good for an ACC-leading, 5th national average of 1.09 per game. Unlike some other big sack guys, Long isn’t just a sack artist, either. He has 69 tackles, 19 of which have come in opponents’ backfields. Stop Long, move the ball. It’s that simple.
Long isn’t the only big skill player in the front seven, though. Junior LB Clint Sintim has 67 tackles on the year and 5 solo sacks. Sintim is hard to erase from the the game plan, with 7 or more tackles in each of the last three games. Junior LB Jon Copper is UVA’s leading tackler, with 92 stops, good for 11th in the ACC. Copper has hit the 7 tackle mark in every single game this year, an astounding comment on the junior’s commitment and consistency. He’s also come from the LB spot to get 10 TFL, 3 sacks and 2 picks, and is easily the squad’s most versatile playmaker.

Special Teams: Senior Chris Gould doesn’t have a ton of FGs (1.36 per game, 8th in the league), but he does have at least one in 10 of the 11 games and has hit big kicks in the clutch to help UVA get the close ones. On the year, he’s 15 of 19, a pretty doggone solid number, and if he has a chance to win this game in the final minute, VA Tech is in trouble. Punter Ryan Weigand is outstanding, averaging 45.86 per kick, 4th nationally and best in the league. His giant foot has been a key to UVA’s success in the field position, defensive battles of the ACC.

Prediction: It all comes down to this. In my opinion, if VA Tech wins this game, they’re division champs and probably headed to the title game as a favorite. If they win, this year has a chance to be a success, with 11 and even 12 wins a possibility. If the Hokies lose, however, the season is a disappointment, and will be marked by a “so close” memory.
There are times in life when two smart people can look at the same data and draw vastly different conclusions. It is certainly possible to look at UVA’s season and see a team full of clutch players, to see a team with a huge heart, to see a team that “knows how to win close ones”. And that’s probably all true, to some degree.
But, frankly, I see an average team that has gotten very good bounce, good break, and borderline call possible down the stretch, and is truly 6 points away from not being bowl eligible. VA Tech is 3.5 point favorites, and will cover the spread and then some. VA Tech 30, Virginia 17.

SEC Power Rankings: Week 13

2007-11-19T22:08:00.001-06:00

We’ve got teams playing for the BCS, teams playing for bowl eligibility, teams playing for rivalry trophies, and teams playing for pride. It’s the SEC, Week Thirteen. Who would beat who on a neutral field tomorrow? You might be surprised...

1. Georgia - Who would you pick to beat the Bulldogs on a neutral field right now? LSU, and its defense that hasn’t held an SEC team under 24 points since September 22nd? Florida, and its defense, that didn’t hold a single SEC team under 20 points all year? For now, I’m taking the ‘Dawgs, who are just about toe to toe with either of those squads on offense, and have held Okie State, So. Carolina, Ole Miss, Vandy, Auburn and Kentucky to 20 points or less.

2. LSU- The Tigers are going to the national title game, in all likelihood, after this week’s win over Arkansas and a title game triumph over Tennessee. When they get there, I’m a little concerned that folks will expect last year’s Florida Gators and be down on the SEC when they don’t get it. I’m not concerned at all at the close margin of LSU’s recent losses - what alarms me is how quickly their defense seemed to go from world beater good to just plain average once the competition level stepped up.

3. Florida - Congratulations to Tim Tebow, who seems like a pretty good guy despite being a Gator, and will likely walk away with the Heisman Trophy in Manhattan two weeks from now. 20 passing TDs, 20 rushing TDs, SEC competition? That’s definitely Heisman worthy, and will give Urban Meyer’s program a nice little offseason jolt as they prepare to pound the Big Ten’s third or fourth best team in some Florida bowl.

4. Auburn - Here’s another defense that looks elite against the lowlifes but can’t stop SEC’s best teams. Auburn’s D gave up 20 points in a four game span from October 6 to November 3rd - problem is, when they played LSU and Georgia, they couldn’t get off the field. Quick shout out to the Tiger punting game, which leads the nation in net punting average on the heel of Ryan Shoemaker’s toe. The kid averages 44.19 yards a kick, best in the league, and boasts great hang time.

5. Tennessee - The road to Atlanta runs through Kentucky, and Vegas’ early line has the Vols as 2 point underdogs to the home field Wildcats. UT has won four straight and seven of eight, but the wins aren’t quite like LSU’s gutcheck specials. The Vols keep squeaking by teams, and now head on the road for the first time since October 20th when they got pounded at Alabama. Here’s my tip: create some fake news headlines that suggest Fulmer’s job is on the line. That usually makes UT play its best.

6. Kentucky - The ‘Cats couldn’t finish the first half against Georgia, and paid for it by surrendering locker room momentum to the Bulldogs. The defense isn’t raking up nearly enough TFL, ranking 11th in the league, and also hasn’t been able to keep teams out of the end zone, at 11th in the league in scoring. There could be a big difference in how this season is viewed in Wildcat Country based on Saturday’s finale vs. Tennessee.

7. Arkansas - I have to give the Hogs credit for knocking off a hungry Mississippi State squad in the “home” finale this weekend. Even more shocking was how successful Casey Dick was throwing the football. How much would you have bet that Dick would never throw 4 TD against no picks? Well, it happened. Bad news: McFadden will be the first draft pick, but isn’t even the MVP in his own conference.

8. South Carolina - The Gamecocks aren’t getting the respect of Vegas this weekend, as a 2.5 point underdog on their home field against Clemson. With two weeks to prepare on its home turf against the road-weary, hated Tigers, I’ll take the Gamecocks and the points, thank you very much. The league’s best pass D is going to thrash whatever poor squad it gets in the Nobody Cares Bowl.

9. Mississippi State - After the huge win over ‘Bama, Mississippi State couldn’t defend the pass in Little Rock and now needs an Egg Bowl win to go bowling. Jamayel Smith looked like Terrell Owens against the Hogs, and if Anthony Dixon follows suit, this should be an easy win. However, programs like MSU’s are pretty good at finding ways to lose games like this one against Ole Miss. I’m rooting for them. The SEC could use another good team.

10. Alabama - Nick Saban’s contract: $32 million. Season tickets to Crimson Tide football games: $450. Senior Day loss to UL-Monroe: Priceless.

11. Vanderbilt - Vandy!! The sad inability to finish off a potential season-making win at in-state bully Tennessee puts the Commodores in the unenviable position of needing to beat Wake Forest in the finale to get to .500. Will this be a let down game after the big fourth quarter choke? On talent alone, Vandy can and should win. Above the shoulderpads, I’m skeptical.

12. Ole Miss - Here’s your task, Rebs: ruin your rival’s season by beating them on their home turf and keeping them out of bowl consideration. No doubt the Egg Bowl is going to be close, but the Rebel defense is 12th in the league in every single major category; rush D, pass D, total D, scoring D, turnover margin. That’s a bad recipe playing against a team with a hot offense and a mission.

C-USA Power Rankings: Week 13

2007-11-19T16:58:00.000-06:00

Here we are. One week to go. Some teams have nothing to play for, and some teams have everything to play for. How would they stack up a neutral field tomorrow?

1. UCF - I keep wiggling back and forth between Tulsa and UCF for the top spot. The Knights are riding a 5-game winning streak which includes wins over Tulsa and Southern Miss in to El Paso this Saturday. You can’t look past the Miners, but if UCF wins and then hosts the C-USA title tilt, that’s a 10-win season. Anything short of a league title is a big disappointment now.
2. Tulsa - The Golden Hurricane looked just vulnerable enough at Michie Stadium for me to yank them from the top spot. I’m not concerned that Tulsa will lose the West, by any means, but 39 points is a lot to surrender, even to an inspired Cadet bunch playing on senior day. That’s the 115th best offense in the country we’re talking about, and it lit up the Tulsa D for 500 yards.
3. East Carolina - The Pirates are still trying to figure out how they lost to Marshall. They can still go bowling, perhaps, with a win over Tulane on senior day. Looking back on the schedule, and seeing how hard they’ll have to fight to get 7 wins, wouldn’t it be nice to trade either VA Tech, W. Virginia or NC State for an easy victory? The difference between 7 and 8 wins is huge come bowl season.
4. Memphis - Without any breakout candidates, Memphis’ Tommy West might be the C-USA coach of the year. After team member Taylor Bradford was slain, the Tigers were 1-3 and looking terrible. Since then, they’re 5-1 in C-USA with only a loss to ECU. Memphis will probably be bowling with a win over SMU on Senior Day. The offense has climbed all the way to 23rd nationally on the arm of Martin Hankins, and the Tigers are one of C-USA best teams in the turnover battle, ranking 17th nationally.
5. Southern Miss - The Golden Eagles are another team on the cusp of bowl eligibility, and will get there with a win over Arkansas State Saturday. What does this say about the league - So. Miss has the C-USA’s best scoring defense, but the unit ranks only 45th nationally. If this team scheduled like Kansas, it would be 8-3.
6. Houston - Call me when the Cougs recover from the Tulsa beat down last Saturday. Houston almost became the third team in a month to fall prey to the upstart Herd, but survived to get to 7-4 and keep their West hopes a live. If they win, it’ll be backdoor style, as their C-USA slate is done, and they have to hope that Tulsa loses to Rice. My gut tells me this a defense that could get exposed in a bowl game.
7. Tulane - Matt Forte will be a victim of Troy Davis syndrome, getting no Heisman love whatsoever because his teammates are so bad. I’m not suggesting Forte should win the award, or even be a finalist, but you haven’t heard his name mentioned at all, despite the fact that 2,000 yards is still a sacred mark in college football. Well, it used to be. Don’t you think of Forte played for Tulsa or Houston, he’d get some votes.
8. Marshall - There’s a big cleft right now between bad C-USA teams that stopped trying and bad C-USA teams that kept fighting. Marshall has kept fighting, and will likely get its third win in the last 5 over UAB this weekend. That’s an admirable turnaround, if only dual threat stud Bernard Morris were going to be around next year. Running back Darius Marshall is the future in Huntington, but he’s got a ways to go, especially without Morris to distract attention next year.
9. Rice - I’ll throw Rice in the “still fighting” camp as well. Ever sine the watershed win in Hattiesburg, the Owls have been in every single game, losing by 8 and 3 to Houston and Memphis and 13 and 14 to Marshall and Tulane. How worried am I that the Owls can spring one on Tulsa? Not terribly, but with the way Chase Clement is throwing the ball right now, who knows what kind of chances will be there against the Tulsa D?
10. SMU - 100 copies of Phil Bennett’s resume from Kinko’s: $99. Season tickets to SMU football: $200. 9 straight losses to end an embattled coach’s regime: Priceless.
11. UTEP - And now we get to the teams that stopped trying. Either El Paso is the biggest home field advantage in football, or UTEP gave up after losing by a FG to ECU and Houston back in October. Since then, the defense has been in offseason mode, giving up 56 to Rice and Southern Miss, while the offense mustered only 19 against Tulane. And still, I wouldn’t be one bit shocked if the Miners laid the wood to UCF this weekend. They’re just that kind of team.
12. UAB - When you’re ranked behind a team on a 9-game cooler and another that hasn’t given a crap since Halloween, you know you really stink up the joint. UAB is the rare C-USA squad: awful on both offense and defense, leaving the Blazers down and out but with hope for the future. Of the big playmakers, only senior QB Sam Hunt won’t be back next year.

MAC Power Rankings: Week 13

2007-11-19T15:53:00.000-06:00

1. Ball State - I have to admit, I’ve been dying to put the Cardinals in this spot all year. Not because I’m a BSU fan or anything; I’ve just thought Ball State was the league’s best team all year, but had one terrible defensive game on the worst day possible, losing the division to CMU. Don’t get me wrong, the Chips deserve the West title, but if the season started over today, I’d pick Ball State.
2. Central Michigan - OK, being upset in a rivalry game is one thing, but giving up 48 points to Eastern Michigan? Seriously? How CMU responds this week at Akron will be one of the league’s most interesting stories. The undefeated MAC campaign is over, but now CMU has to beat Akron to guarantee a bowl game regardless of how the title tilt turns out. Will the defense answer the bell against the MAC’s worst offense?
3. Miami - Other than a midseason loss at Temple, the Redhawks have stepped up every single week, mostly on the strength of what is easily the league’s best defense. He won’t win the award, but LB Clayton Mullins deserves your consideration for Defensive Player of the Year. With an average MAC defense, the Redhawks have 4 wins tops, and Mullins seems to be in the mix on every big play.
4. Bowling Green - Who has the most wins in the conference? Yep, its the Falcons, after last week’s emphatic win at UB Stadium, which had already vexed East counterparts Ohio and Toledo. With a win this Friday in the Battle for I-95, the Falcons will have 8 wins, a 4-game winning streak, a rivalry win, and the league’s top passing attack. You think some bowl scouts aren’t dying for that combination?
5. Buffalo - Turner Gill’s awesome second campaign in Buffalo won’t end in Detroit, courtesy of the squad’s 31-17 loss to BGSU this weekend. I was a little surprised, as I thought the Bulls would knock off the Green, but it didn’t happen. Still, this is probably my pick to win the East in 2008. Drew Willy, James Starks, Mario Henry and the vastly underrated Naaman Roosevelt all return, giving Buffalo the league’s most potent returning combination on offense.
6. Akron - With the return of John Mackey, Akron’s defense has improved, peaking in a stunning shutout of Miami last week at Yager. Here’s the problem - the offense is worse than ever. Neither Chris Jacquemain or Carlton Jackson can throw downfield to save their life, and opposing Ds have been strong enough to take away Jabari Arthur from the Zip attack. The future is sophomore HB Alex Allen, who has looked explosive each of the three times I’ve seen the Zips in person.
7. Ohio - The Bobcats are a 3 point favorite over East Champ Miami on senior day at Peden, and I think it’s warranted. Now that Miami has the title wrapped up, they might lose a step, and with Ohio fighting for a .500 record on Senior Day, we should be in for a great ball game. Even though the Bobcats have been a bit of a disappointment this year, the D is still 2ndin the MAC in both sacks and TFL, led by Landon Cohen.
8. Toledo - After 85 seconds last Tuesday, the Rockets and Cardinals were on pace for 600 points. Both teams cooled their jets, but Toledo didn’t score in the second half, giving BSU a 41-20 victory. A victory this Friday over BGSU claims the Peace Pipe and gets Toledo to 6-6. The next time they get 7 home games, they’ll have to do better.
9. Eastern Michigan - You and I both know it: nobody has any clue how EMU is going to play on any given day. The league’s least predictable team beat up on the CMU defense for a 48-45 win, taking home the Michigan MAC trophy in style. Lost in all the unpredictability is the defense: how did a really salty unit in the early season, led by two of the league’s top 5 defenders, get so bad? In the last 5 MAC contests, EMU’s D held one opponent under 39 points.
10. Western Michigan - Credit to the Broncos. I’m telling you, the win at Iowa isn’t quite as impressive as some would like to think, but a major bravo for rebounding from a crushing loss to their rival to stun a Big Ten team in its own house. As bad as the MAC has been out of conference this year, this could really be the league’s signature win, not counting bowl season. Sad but true.
11. Temple - The Owls, like Buffalo, fought valiantly this year, but ran out of horses at season’s end. In hindsight, Adam DiMichele was easily one of the league’s most valuable players; Temple lost a ton of production and clutch play when he went down for the year. Al Golden and Turner Gill are going to be duking it out for league coach of the year honors for as long as both of them stick around.
12. Northern Illinois - The Huskies battled a capable Midshipmen squad, getting yet another 100 yard outing from Justin Anderson and what is backup QB Ryan Morris’ best game in awhile, certainly. Alex Kube was a beast, racking up 15 tackles, including 9 solos, but the Navy running attack was too much. Is this Joe Novak’s last year roaming the sidelines in DeKalb?
13. Kent State - Even in defeat, the Flashes represented the league well this weekend, battling Temple with a third-string QB, broken spirits, and nothing to play for but pride. The offense was brutal as Jon Brown threw 4 picks and converted just 2 of 12 third downs. Yet somehow KSU led 14-12 after three quarters before succumbing 24-14 in the fourth. Another valiant effort, another tough loss.

SEC Review: Week 12

2007-11-19T15:13:00.000-06:00

The finish line is the next stop, but for now we’ve still got teams positioning themselves in the SEC’s year end pecking order. Here’s what went down this weekend:

Game of the Week

Tennessee 25, Vandy 24 - UT clung to its East lead by the slimmest of margins, and beat Vandy by 1 in a game the Commodores have made a career out of losing. After three quarters, Vandy led 24-9, but the Vols got off the mat with a 7 yard TD toss from Erik Ainge to Josh Briscoe. A few minutes later, Austin Rogers caught a 5 yard pass from Ainge, but a failed 2-point conversion left the Vols down, 24-22. A Daniel Lincoln FG won it with 2 and a half to play. How did Vandy get so bad in the fourth quarter? In the entire fourth, the Commodores got one first down, and that came courtesy of a UT pass interference call. This one is going to sting.

Best of the Rest

Georgia 24, Kentucky 13 - The Bulldogs took another step toward the BCS with a 24-13 win over Kentucky that was never over until the 2 minute mark, when Brandon Coutu hit a 46 yard FG to seal it. Things looked really bleak, as UGA trailed 10-0 late in the first half, but the ‘Dawgs trekked 80 yards in 4 minutes, getting a Knowshon Moreno 1-yard tumble to head to the locker room within 3. Then UGA took command, coming out gangbusters in the second half, forcing two three and outs and getting two quick rushing TDs to take command, 21-10. Moreno and Brown got a perfect 22-22 carry split, while the defense held UK’s rushing game to just 29 yards on 29 carries.

Arkansas 45, Mississippi State 31 - I can’t believe I’m writing this, but Arkansas actually beat a good football team on the strength of its passing game, not the running game. Casey Dick threw 14 of 17 for 199 yards and 4 TDs. Yes, I’m serious. Darren McFadden didn’t even get to 90 yards, but everything Arkansas tried through the air worked to perfection, including a D-Mac TD pass. Jamayel Smith, where have you been all my life? The MSU junior caught 10 balls for 208 yards, doubling his output on the year.

Ho Hum

UL-Monroe 21, Alabama 14 - I just want to go on record saying that this could have happened to any coach at any school. But for some reason, it’s just funnier that it happened to Nick Saban. Thank you, seniors, for your 4 years of toil. As a parting gift - you lose to UL-Monroe, a Sun-Belt squad fighting the war against mediocrity in its own league. Nevertheless, “flat” is a kind word to describe how Alabama played Saturday, turning the ball over 4 times and allowing Monroe to grind out 121 rushing yards. The average wasn’t great, but Monroe kept pounding, and Alabama couldn’t score after the 12 minute mark of the 2nd quarter. Ouch.

LSU 41, Ole Miss 24 - The Tigers haven’t been great for awhile, but luckily the brunt of their schedule is over. LSU got outgained by 70 yards and 4 first downs, but Ole Miss gave the ball away 4 times, and LSU benefited from Matt Flynn’s efficient passing. The Rebs got to within 10 with 9 minutes to play, but LSU milked some clock and got a 2 yard Jacob Hester TD run to really put it out of reach. Ole Miss rang up 466 yards of offense, and was solid with the ball in hand all day, but LSU’s attacking defense kept them from turning yards in to points.

Boooooooring

Florida 59, FAU 20 - This game has a scoring summary about as mercurial as they come. Florida scored the first 21 in a 7-minute first quarter flurry, before FAU roared back with 3 scores in 6 minutes to bring the margin to 21-13. By half it was 35-20 Gators, but the Owls wouldn’t score again. Tebow became the first player in college history to run and pass for 20 TDs in the same year, and pretty much wrapped up the Heisman Trophy with the achievement. FAU isn’t an awful football team by any stretch, but the ease with which the Owls scored in the first half has to trouble Gator fans a bit.

C-USA Review: Week 12

2007-11-19T15:12:00.000-06:00

We’re coming up on season’s end now, and the final bell tolled for a bunch of teams across the land this Saturday. How did they finish the year, and who lived to tell about it? Check it out:

Game of the Week

Houston 35, Marshall 28 - The Cougars got off the mat following last week’s humiliating shellacking at Tulsa with a close win over Marshall that was still in doubt until the end. For three quarters, the game was quietly subdued, as Houston led 20-14 with 15 minutes to play. Then, the cork popped, as the teams traded TDs throughout the fourth, with the last coming on Kelvin Turner’s 1 yard run with two and a half to go. Marshall couldn’t score again, though, and the Cougs held on. If Todd Graham and Tulsa fail in the homecoming game vs. Rice, UH still grabs the West title.

Best of the Rest

Tulsa 49, Army 39 - It certainly wasn’t a defensive performance to write home about, but the Golden Hurricane dodged a textbook “Trap game” scenario and escaped Army with a win. Tulsa never really had the game wrapped up until 93 seconds remained, when QB Paul Smith ran in from a yard out, making it a 10 point margin for good. Smith dazzled, throwing with sharp efficiency and big play potential (22-32, 390 yards, 2 TD). Tulsa was especially clutch on third downs, grabbing 7 of 12 conversions.

Ho Hum

Southern Miss 56, UTEP 30 - The Miners didn’t just go in the tank during this year’s second half, they crawled in the tank, set up shop, and started getting their mail forwarded there. UTEP completed an epic second half collapse with a 26 point loss at home against Southern Miss, and gave up 40 points on D for the sixth time this year. The way the Miners are going right now, they wouldn’t fare well in the Texas High School Playoffs; all Southern Miss had to do was stay in bounds and not beat themselves; RB Damion Fletcher did that and then some, galloping for 211 yards on 34 carries, along with three scores.

Tulane 45, Rice 31 - Matt Forte is now the single season rushing leader in C-USA history, and there’s still one game left on the ticket. Forte has ripped off 2,007 yards in 2007, with 194 yards on 39 carries in this one, getting his fifth score with a full seven and a half minutes left in the game. Rice cut it to a 14 point game after that, but Ade Tuyo got in from 1 yard out to ice it for Marshall with two minutes to go. Chase Clement broke some records of his own on the Rice side of the ball, with 353 passing yards, setting a school record for 3,319 offensive yards in a season.

Booooooooring

UCF 49, SMU 20 - The Knights drew one step closer to holding C-USA’s annual post season pow wow in Orlando, and that’s what’ll happen if they do to UTEP next week what they did to SMU this Saturday. The Ponies haven’t won since Sept. 8th, and the Phil Bennett farewell tour continued in style, as SMU was once again unable to overcome turnovers and mental letdowns to stay competitive. This is the kind of play that has marked the Bennett regime in Dallas, and it was on display yet again in the second quarter; with SMU just 2 minutes from heading to the locker room competitive, down 28-13, the ‘Stangs let Kevin Smith tromp 80 yards for a score, to send them to the break tails between their legs. Smith finished with 177 on just 20 carries; Kyle Israel was efficient as ever with 11-16 passing for 173 yards.

Memphis 25, UAB 9 - Memphis cracked the ranks of the bowl eligible for the fourth time sine 2003 with a boring win over UAB that brought the Blazers’ abysmal campaign one step closer to a merciful end. The Tigers got their fifth C-USA win of the year thanks to Martin Hankins’ ability to terrorize the UAB defense on a day when he averaged 21 yards per completed pass. He only connected on 14, 4 of which went to rising star Duke Calhoun, but those accounted for 159 yards, including a long of 70. Kicker Matt Reagan nailed four FGs to keep Memphis scoring even when its drives were stalling in the red zone.

Miami 7, Akron 0

2007-11-15T02:57:00.000-06:00

Miami moved one game closer to the MAC Championship game with a bizarre 7-0 win over Akron on Senior Night at Yager Stadium.

Neither offense scored the entire game, as the Redhawks picked up the night’s only score on defensive end Craig Mester’s fumble return touchdown with just under ten minutes to play. The score was Mester’s first at any level of football, and came on his final game in Yager Stadium.

“I picked some pretty good timing, don’t you think?” Mester quipped afterward.

Both defenses suffocated the offenses all night, forcing 17 punts altogether. The Redhawks were more successful moving the ball, but Akron picked off Daniel Raudabaugh passes in its own endzone on three straight possessions to keep the Redhawks at bay.

A Miami fumble gave Akron its best field position of the night to start the fourth quarter. The Zips advanced to the Redhawk 29 yard line before QB Chris Jacquemain badly underthrew Zip WR Jabari Arthur in the end zone for an interception. That drive followed 9 straight Akron possessions ending in punts.

Finally, Miami (4-1, 5-1, 6-5) broke the ice on Mester’s fumble return. Akron coach elected to give backup QB Carlton Jackson a try after Jacquemain struggled terribly all night (12-33, 116 yards, 2 INT). On Jackson’s first series, the Zips took over at their own 23.

Facing a third down and long, Jackson dropped to pass but was rushed by Miami LB Clayton Mullins. Mullins rocked Jackson’s arm as he went to throw, and the ball fell right in to Mester’s arms. The senior took it 7 yards for the score.

Mullins and the Miami defense owned the night, holding Akron to just 216 yards on 70 plays. Mullins himself had 5 TFL as the Redhawks repeatedly frustrated Akron’s offensive attack.

Both quarterbacks had brutal nights throwing the ball, with Jacquemain unable to find open targets and Raudabaugh continuously giving the ball away deep in Zip territory.

Most importantly for Miami, the Redhawks are now one win away from winning the MAC East and advancing to face CMU in the MAC title game in Detroit. If Miami loses to Ohio next Saturday at Peden Stadium, the Redhawks can still advance with a Buffalo loss to either Bowling Green or Kent State.

C-USA Preview: Week 12

2007-11-14T15:54:00.001-06:00

Tons of seniors playing their final games, bowl bids in the balance, and division titles going down to the wire. If you don’t care by this point, I can’t help you. Here we go:

Game of the Week:

Southern Miss at UTEP – The Golden Eagles have been up and down all year, and now find themselves on the brink of elimination in the bowl hunt. A win over UTEP would make their case much stronger, but will the Miners make one last exciting stand on their home turf? No way this game gets decided by more than a TD either way; like every UTEP game, it’ll down to who can put together drives and get stops in the last 7 minutse of the contest. So. Miss has lost two C-USA battles by a FG or less – time to make it 3. With the year UTEP has had, I see no more fitting end than a 3 point win in 2OT. UTEP 44, So. Miss 41

Best of the Rest:

Marshall at Houston – All of a sudden, the Herd is putting a couple wins together and looking like they might be a mid-tier squad next year. How will Houston respond to the embarrassment at Tulsa last week? Marshall has been brutal on the road, going 0-5 with an average defeat of 19.6 points. The defense did a number on the ECU attack last week; how will they respond against the wounded Cougars? I gotta think Houston bounces back on the running of Aldridge this weekend…they’re too good not to. Right? Houston 37, Marshall 20.

Tulsa at Army – Michie Stadium is one of the nation’s finest football-watchin’ venues, and the Golden Hurricane get an exciting road trip as a reward for the huge Houston win. Any chance of a letdown? Maybe – there’s no way Tulsa is quite as good as they looked against the Cougars, given how uneven their early season performances were. On the other hand, will Army even be focused on Tulsa two weeks before the Navy game? I’d say the “overlooking the opponent” possibilities for each team cancels each other, and the best team will win by 2 touchdowns. Tulsa 38, Army 24.

Ho Hum:

Tulane at Rice – Rice has a shot at 4 C-USA wins, which would be a great feat for the weak Owl squad. Matt Forte would love to win that national rushing title, for something to tell his grandkids about, and if Tulane could notch a 4^th win of the year, that would be good too. Have I mentioned that Tulane’s actually had one of the league’s pass rushes this year? The Green Wave’s strength is up the middle, the weakness is on the edges. I think Forte tops 200 one more time, and the Wave rides him to a tight win. Tulane 30, Rice 26.

UCF at SMU – This one would be surely in the boring category if it weren’t for UCF’s newfound East lead. The Knights are two wins away from the title game, and SMU will be trying to give the title back to East Carolina in Phil Bennett’s last home game as SMU coach. The Ponies have lost their last 4 by 27 total points; not bad, but still, as Bill Parcells says, “You are what you are.” SMU is a 1-9 team, and some things never change: UCF 40, SMU 35.

Boooooooooring:

UAB at Memphis – The Tigers deserve some credit for rallying after the emotional death of Taylor Bradford for 4 wins in their last 6. Now, at 5-5, they could be going bowling with 2 wins over UAB and SMU. Two home games against the league’s two worst teams. Should be no problem, right? Well, Memphis hasn’t exactly overwhelmed anybody, and UAB is surely due for a good outing, since they haven’t given one since September. I don’t know why I’m doing this, call it a gut feeling: UAB 28, Memphis 24.

Virginia Tech vs. Miami Preview

2007-11-14T15:27:00.000-06:00

Tech kept rolling against the Seminoles and I got back on the horse with an accurate prediction on the Tech vs. Florida State game. How will both of us perform this week when the wounded Canes come to town? Here we go:

Miami (5-5, 2-4 ACC)

Offense: Beware the wounded animal. Miami got absolutely humiliated in its final Orange Bowl game ever, 48-0, by the Cavaliers. How has it come this far? There’s been plenty, plenty of ink spilled lately over the Hurricanes’ descent from prominence, so I won’t beat the drum too hard here. But it still amazes me how this squad that was the boogeyman for my generation of school kids has fallen to mid-tier ACC status at best.

Looks like Kyle Wright will go in Blacksburg after a horrendous 9-21, 94 yards, 3 INT outing against the Cavs that made Virginia look as if a Tech should be added to their jerseys. The senior certainly doesn’t want to be as the rare ‘Cane QB that doesn’t lead his squad to a bowl game, but he hasn’t completed more than 9 passes in a game since October 6^th. Sure, he’s been splitting time under center, but the question has to be asked: even if he has the full confidence of his coaches, can Wright play strong for an entire game? The Tech D should be able to feast on this guy. His big outings this year have come against weak competition: 224, 275, 230 and 302 against FIU, TAMU, Duke and No. Carolina. Against Oklahoma, GA Tech, Florida State and Virginia? Not an outing above 94 yards, and a 2:4 TD:INT ratio.

‘Cane RB Javarris James has the bloodlines, and he may also hold the key to Miami’s offensive success. In James’ 5 biggest outings of the year, the ‘Canes haven’t lost in regulation (they went down in OT on his biggest performance against NC State). In games where he runs for 55 yards or less, Miami is 1-4. Obviously, the young James gives Miami a spark it can’t duplicate elsewhere. RB Graig Cooper has been more solid game to game (7 of 10 games between 48 and 80 yards), but isn’t quite the sparkplug James is. Both players are young and should struggle against a hungry VA Tech D.

Darnell Jenkins is the only Hurricane WR that has even been passable as a big play threat this season, at 25 catches for 570 yards, but even then, the 2.5 catches per game is a really small number for a program built on speedy playmakers at the edge. Jenkins has been hut by QB play, to be sure, but hasn’t been nearly consistent enough to warrant high praise. The entire WR corps has been plagued by inconsistency, as almost all have had one big game but not been able to get open steadily. Lance Leggett, Sam Shields and Cooper all have some potential to hurt a defense, but don’t do it consistenly.

Defense: The D isn’t awful statistically but doesn’t have the stunning athleticism of the past top ‘Cane units. Overall, the D is 27^th nationally and 6^th in the ACC in yards surrendered, but just 43^rd and 8^th in points given up. The ‘Cane D hasn’t been mentally tough enough to be able to get the big stops needed to stop yards from turning in to points.

Up front, Miami does have 3 of the league’s sackers in Calais Campbell, Vegas Franklin and Teraz McCray. This is a unit where the ‘Canes have been good this year, at 4^th in the ACC in sacks and 3^rd in TFL. Campbell is probably the best athlete of the bunch. He’s picked off a pass, caught a pass, and registered 13 TFL and 7 sacks this year. For his career, the 42 TFL have resulted in 144 lost yards – that’s a fairly high number, and indicates that when he gets in to the backfield, he makes it count for a substantial loss. Senior DL Franklin hasn’t done much lately, but looked great with a combined 3 sacks against Duke and TAMU. If he steps it up for his final trip to Blacksburg, the Tech line could have some issues defending both these guys.

Senior LB Tavares Gooden is the ‘Canes’ leading tackler, with 91 on the year, including 10 at Florida State and 14 against Duke and Oklahoma. Gooden mostly hangs back and makes stops on the mid-range plays; only 3 of his 91 tackles have come in the backfield. Getting him to miss an assignment will be a tough task for the Tech offense. Sophomore Colin McCarthy is Miami’s most versatile LB, with 57 tackles, a pick, and 10 TFL on the year. McCarthy could be Miami’s next top-flight ‘backer if he continues to improve in coverage.

The pass defense has numbers that look fine at first glance, but look closer: despite being just 2^nd in the league in yards surrendered, the ‘Canes are 9^th in the league in pass efficiency defense. So teams aren’t trying to throw all that much against Miami, but when they do, it doesn’t prove too hard. This plays right in to Virginia Tech’s hands. Randy Phillips is the most dangerous ‘Cane in the secondary; not only does Phillips have a team-leading 5 INT, but boasts a combined 150 return yards on the 5 picks. When Phillips snatches the ball, everybody look out, dude’s a home run threat. 3 of the picks have come in the last 3 weeks. As long as Glennon doesn’t let Phillips snap off a big play, VA Tech should be able to throw.

Special Teams: Francesco Zampogna lost his job after early season struggles saw him make just 9 of 14 FGs. Darren Daley took over at Florida State, cashing in on all 5 kicks, but then tanked on two FGs against NC State that could have helped Miami beat the Wolfpack. Who knows what we’ll get this weekend, but odds are, it won’t be good. Miami is actually pretty bad in all areas of special teams. Punter Matt Bosher is 11^th in the league, as is Graig Cooper on punt returns. Advantage: VA Tech.

Prediction: I think its reasonable to think Miami may come out with an inspired effort on the heels of last week’s embarrassing OB finale. On the other hand, I think its reasonable to expect Miami to come out lifeless after last week’s embarrassing OB finale. So really, I don’t know what’s going to happen. I do know that VA Tech isn’t going to lose this game, not in Blacksburg, not on Senior Day, not one chance. Virginia Tech 32, Miami 14.

Ball State 41, Toledo 20

2007-11-14T14:29:00.000-06:00

Ball State won a battle of two 5-5 teams seeking bowl eligibility Tuesday, 41-20, in front of the ESPN2 cameras on Senior Night at Scheumann Stadium.

After 80 seconds, the teams were on pace for 600 total points, but the brisk offensive pace cooled and Ball State dominated the second half en route to a decisive 6^th win of the year.

Toledo jumped to a 7-0 lead just 28 seconds in to the game after two Jalen Parmele runs combined for 46 yards and a score. But the Cardinals wasted no time answering, marching 68 yards in just 4 plays to score on a 27-yard TD catch by Darius Hill to know the contest at 7.

Ball State turned out an impressive home crowd for the season finale at remodeled Scheumann Stadium. Not only were the ESPN cameras in town, but there may have been some bowl scouts watching as well. Buzz around the stadium focused on the International Bowl in Toronto, and the Cardinals’ offense would likely appeal to the folks in Toronto, who have the right to select third in the MAC bowl pecking order.

Despite the speculation, Cardinal QB Nate Davis and coach Brady Hoke focused their post-game comments on the importance of sending Ball State’s seniors off with a win. But it was a crew of underclassmen that carried the Cardinals to victory.

Davis, a sophomore, had one of his best games of the year, throwing for three scores and running for two, including a spectacular 1 yard run in the second quarter that tied the game at 20. Davis dropped to pass, was flushed from the pocket, and sprinted toward the right pylon. From about a yard and a half out, Davis leapt for the end zone and snuck the ball across the endline. Ian McGarvey’s extra point tied it.

The QB’s main partner in crime on this night was another underclassman, junior Dante Love. Davis found Love on two gorgeous deep throws, including a 39-yard toss in the first half that Love snatched just behind him while streaking in to the end zone. That score brought Ball State to within 17-13 late in the first quarter. With 7 catches and 34 receiving yards in the season finale, Love will have 80 catches and 1000 yards on the year.

Sophomore RB Chris Clancy gave Ball State plenty of tough yards on the ground while the Cardinals protected their lead. The third string RB finished with 13 carries for 103 yards.

Neither team let off the accelerator much in the first half, but Ball State was the squad able to keep pushing the hardest after the break, thanks in part to Toledo injuries. Jalen Parmele, Toledo’s star RB, rung up 94 yards on 16 carries in the first half, but only carried 8 times in the second half after getting dinged up with an unspecified injury.

Rocket QB Aaron Opelt threw some great deep passes in the first half, but injured a shoulder in the third quarter. DJ Lenehan was 0-4 with an INT in his stead.

Toledo wraps the season at Bowling Green in the battle for the Peace Pipe on the day after Thanksgiving. Ball State goes to Northern Illinois next Saturday.

MAC Power Rankings: Week 12

2007-11-14T14:06:00.001-06:00

Central Michigan – The Chips are in the title game courtesy of the big win at Western Michigan last Tuesday. In my heart of hearts, I still think Ball State is better, but there’s no way to take CMU out of the top spot after they drubbed the Cardinals by 20 at Schuemann. What are the odds of a letdown now that the title is locked up with two games to go? You know EMU will be coming for the Chippewas.
Ball State – The Cardinals rolled Toledo last night and looked like a great candidate for the International Bowl in doing so. If Ball State wins at Northern, and it should, the Cardinals will be 7-5 with an explosive passing attack. I have a feeling the folks in Toronto would love to match up Ball State with a Big East team like Louisville. The schools are very close geographically, and the over/under would be about 150.
Miami – The Redhawks will be put to the test over the next couple weeks. Miami’s been great under the radar all year, but now with the East title firmly in sight, how will this squad respond to the sight of the finish line? Shane Montgomery is one of only two plausible choices for Coach of the Year; for him to win it, Miami needs to win out and then win the title in Detroit.
Buffalo – Don’t count out the Bulls from the East race just yet. Turner Gill’s staff has had two weeks to prepare for BGSU’s visit to UB Stadium, where Buffalo is 3-1 this year. After that, Buffalo road trips to Kent State to face a DOA Golden Flashes squad. Gill is obviously the run away choice for MAC Coach of the Year, and if Buffalo sneaks in to the MAC title game, he’ll be getting votes for the national award as well.
Bowling Green – I finally saw the Falcons in person last Friday in Ypsilanti, and the offense looked pretty sharp. Who’s the best passing team in the MAC? Not CMU or Ball State – the answer is BGSU, at 292.70 yards a game. The rush D is the major handicap, and I think it’ll haunt the Falcons in Buffalo this weekend. James Starks and Mario Henry should get plenty of cracks at the nation’s 114^th best rush D.
Toledo – All the teams in the MAC’s third tier are closely bunched; I’ll take the Rockets here, begrudgingly. The Rockets have played an astounding 7 homes games to date, inflating their record a bit. 1-point wins over Iowa State and Liberty probably go the other way on the road, but hey, they’ve gotten the job done. In 4 road games, the Rockets haven’t yet held a team under 41 points. That be bad.
Akron – JD Brookhart probably quelled any silly talk about his job being in jeopardy with the high scoring win over Ohio on ESPN2 last Wednesday. The task gets tougher the next couple weeks with the two division leaders, Miami and CMU. Can Akron play spoiler? Alex Allen looked like a potential first team all-MAC talent at the Rubber Bowl Wednesday.
Ohio – The Bobcats shot their bowl hopes in the foot with the major letdown at Akron. Ohio is the one team in the league not afraid to pound the running game over and over, but when you’re playing 3 games in 12 days, that’s tough. Ohio now gets 16 days off before getting a shot at spoiling Miami’s East title in the season finale. McRae and the line will be rested; Solich has 17 days to craft a defensive game plan. The upset is very possible.
Eastern Michigan – EMU has too many defensive talents to send its seniors off giving up 38 points to BGSU on Senior Night. The running game looked nasty against BGSU, but whose hasn’t? How bad will the Eagles be looking for a finale win against Central on Saturday? Answer: Really bad.
Western Michigan – Who’s a bigger disappointment this year, Western or Kent State? Most folks say Kent, but I’m going with Western. The secondary was highly touted, and the media (not me) picked this team for 1^st in the conference. Eyebrows are really starting to go up around the league with all the criticism coach Bill Cubit has leveled at QB Tim Hiller. Hiller hasn’t been great, but you didn’t hear a word of criticism last year when Cubit’s son was throwing passes.
Temple – Al Golden was spitting fire after Penn State’s 31-0 victory over his Temple team Saturday. The game was much, much closer than the score indicated, especially after three quarters. Temple had a TD called back for penalty, dropped a pass in the end zone, missed a chippie field goal, and made several other back breaking mistakes. This team will win an East title in the next three years.
Northern Illinois – If this is Joe Novak’s last year in DeKalb, and it may be, at least the Huskies got off the schneid in conference play by beating Kent State 27-29 this Saturday. Now NIU heads to Navy to face a Middie squad that scored 74 points Saturday…but gave up 62. Justin Anderson will be forgotten in postseason voting, but he’s been the best thing in DeKalb all year.
Kent State – Shield your eyes, the glare from the car accident that has been Kent’s 2007 campaign is harsh. When your pass defense gets shredded by Dan Nicholson of NIU, you know you’ve got a problem. Eugene Jarvis continues to toil in losing efforts, at 5^th nationally with 143 ypg.

SEC Power Rankings: Week 12

2007-11-14T13:25:00.001-06:00

LSU – The Tigers sit back on top the national title chase, and the mantle is well deserved. Only a 3 OT loss at Kentucky stands between this team and a flawless campaign, and with the ledger of ranked teams they’ve beaten, the Tigers deserves a shot at all the marbles. Can Arkansas do damage against the suddenly mortal defense?
Georgia – The Bulldogs have looked amazing since the Tennessee loss, ripping off wins against Vandy, Florida, Troy and Auburn. Now they get Kentucky at home before heading to Atlanta on Thanksgiving weekend. With all the attrition among the nation’s top teams, the Bulldogs have to be looking like a BCS contender, especially in one of the southern bowl games. Still – the Wildcats will be a challenge. UGA’s 8^th ranked SEC pass D could struggle against Woodson.
Auburn – The Tigers finally came off their cloud between the Hedges Saturday. The loss didn’t shock me; the method did. Auburn gave up 45 points to Georgia, revealing some cracks in a D that had looked unbelievable the last few weeks. The bye week before Alabama should help Auburn get healthy – the pass rushers could use a little rest. Despite boasting the nation’s 11^th best defense, Auburn is only 94^th in sacks. Antonio Coleman needs to attack Wilson against ‘Bama.
Florida – Tim Tebow deserves to win the Heisman. That fact is really undeniable now, with the punishment he’s taken from the nation’s best defensive league, and the numbers he’s put up in the process. Tebow is 9^th in the SEC in rushing, 2^nd nationally in scoring, 2^nd nationally in passer rating, 7^th in total offense and has just been abused by opposing defenses. The late press rush has been gaga over Oregon’s Dennis Dixon, but Tebow deserves the trophy.
Tennessee – Erik Ainge owes the Vol offensive line a steak dinner. UT’s hogmollies have surrendered only 3 sacks this year, giving Ainge the time he needs to develop from a good QB to a very good one. Jerod Mayo and Rico McCoy might be the league’s best LB duo. At 8^th and 9^th in the SEC in tackles, they’re both underclassmen and back next year.
South Carolina – The Gamecocks have faded from a possible national title contender to an SEC East has been who could conceivably miss a bowl game altogether. They won’t, with the Spurrier factor and a fan base that will likely travel, but at 6-6 on a 5-game losing streak to end the year, SC isn’t exactly driving bowl scouts nuts right now. Beating Clemson won’t ease the pain this year.
Mississippi State – Thank you, Sylvester Croom, for justifying my year-long campaign to get your team more respect. This team will be bowling, and a win over Arkansas or Ole Miss will cement it. Things get really fun if the Bulldogs can pull the double. Arkansas will be a tough task on senior night in the Rock, but a win over Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl makes this 7-5 season a smashing success.
Alabama – Thank you, Nick Saban, for justifying my year-long campaign to convince the public that your team is mediocre. The Tide is probably on its way to a 7-5, 4-4 season after a likely loss to Auburn in the Iron Bowl. I’m not dogging Saban; the guy can coach and will have this team in the title game in a few years. But this year the hype machine has been out of control for a team that is ranked 67^th nationally in offense and 34^th in defense.
Kentucky – The Wildcats came back to earth after a stunning start to the year, but UGA had better not sleep on Woodson & Co. this week in Athens. The UK offense is still the best passing attack in the SEC; luckily, UGA could have similar success through the air – UK has only one d-back with more than one pick, and that’s Trevard Lindley with 2. The pass D is 8^th in the league in efficiency and should give Stafford enough time to do what he does.
Arkansas – Don’t get me started on Arkansas. If this team goes 6-6, and it might, with losses to Mississippi State and LSU, it truly does not deserve a bowl bid. ESPN will go nuts if Darren McFadden isn’t in the postseason, but for the one millionth time, here are the ‘Hogs wins to date: Troy, N. Texas, Chattanooga, Ole Miss, FIU and South Carolina. Four non-BCS teams, brutal Ole Miss, and South Carolina. If Arkansas gets to 7 wins, they’ll sneak in. And get beaten.
Vanderbilt – Vandy really could have gotten the UK win Saturday; the Commodores notched 30 first downs, 239 rushing yards and 193 passing yards against no picks. But they did what teams without a history of winning do: failed to make enough big plays down the stretch to beat a slightly better team. Can they snap off a vulnerable Wake Forest squad in the season finale, with a bowl berth on the line?
Ole Miss – No one’s going to be pleased with a 4 win season, but a win over Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl can change the vibe of the entire season. Anthony Dixon is mission #1 for the Ole Miss D, 104^th ranked in the nation. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is one of those SEC athletes that gets so overshadowed in this conference, and when he’s gone, people finally realize what an athlete he was.

C-USA Power Rankings: Week 12

2007-11-14T12:25:00.001-06:00

Tulsa – Tulsa redefined “answering the bell” with the huge win over Houston, and now only a season finale against Rice stands in between the Golden Hurricane and a West title. This was the Tulsa squad we’ve hoped for all season long, and then some. Given how uneven the team has been all year, it’s remarkable that after all the inconsistency, 10 wins is still in play.
UCF – The Knights are back atop the East courtesy of ECU’s gag in Huntington. Two more wins and UCF is in the C-USA title tilt versus the Golden Hurricane. This week’s road date at SMU shouldn’t be much of a problem; next week’s home date with UTEP might be. You never know what you’re going to get with the Miners; a steady quarterbacking performance by Kyle Israel will be essential.
ECU – This was the ultimate “wha happened??” game of the year. How did the Pirates lose at awful Marshall and cost themselves the the East title in the process? I have no idea, but it was a disastrous performance from a program that might be wearing down from a brutal non-conference schedule early in the year. Greenville’s like a church on Monday right now; after leading the East race almost the whole way, one brutal road outing has them solidly on the outside looking in.
Memphis – If you told me this was only the 8^th best team in C-USA, I wouldn’t argue with you. But the Tigers have won close game after close game, getting 4 C-USA wins by 10 total points. So maybe they’re lucky or maybe they’re clutch. Your guess is as good as mine, but with all the other teams in the league prone to choking when they need a win, I’ll take this team in a street fight.
Houston – Maybe we ignored the signs that this team was ready to be beaten. The loss to Tulsa was preceded by a weak outing vs. SMU and a narrow escape at UTEP. Maybe the offensive balance I praised all year really just means the Cougars have no outstanding players. Tulsa obviously did on Saturday. Regardless, the Cougars are still an attractive bowl team, with the 6^th best offense nationally.
Southern Miss – The Golden Eagles could sneak in to a bowl with two wins over UTEP and Arkansas State in the next two weeks. As it turns out, the narrow loss to Memphis this week could cost them a shot at the C-USA title. This team is probably closer than any second tier team to being an elite team in the league. 7 turnovers doomed So. Miss against Rice in a 2 point loss earlier in the year; giving up 400 passing yards to Martin Hankins did the trick this week.
Rice – The Owls have a genuine shot at a .500 C-USA record with Tulane coming to Houston this week; that would be a quite a feat, not only because of how bad Rice has been, but really, because of how bad they are this year. The Owls are 100^th or worse nationally in the following major categories; total yardage D, scoring D, punting, returns, pass D, sacks allowed, rushing yards. 4 wins will be a major accomplishment.
Marshall – How’d they do it? Marshall stunned East Carolina with a 26-7 upset, ruining the Pirates’ season and giving the Herd something to build on for next year. The offense really isn’t that bad – 7^th in the league overall and 5^th in passing yards. But in the Herd’s two wins, they’ve won with defense. Holding ECU to 7 and Rice to 21 are both feats that the nation’s 101^st ranked D can build on for next year.
Tulane – As long as the Green Wave have competence under center, Matt Forte will carry the team to its share of C-USA wins. That’s what happened Saturday, as Kevin Moore and Anthony Scelfo combined for 16-21 passing for 277 yards and Forte lugged 38 times for 171 yards. David Skehan is looking like he could anchor a decent secondary next season.
UTEP – After only finishing 1 of 3 games in the big homestand, this team mentally checked out and hasn’t been the same since. Maybe they can turn it around back in El Paso against Southern Miss this week. Marcus Thomas and Trevor Vittatoe kept the offense going, but the defense couldn’t stop Matt Forte and UTEP only got 19 points out of 412 yards.
SMU – The Ponies have been close now four straight weeks, but I can’t move them up without the ability to finish in the league. The porous pass defense has killed SMU, despite a decent pass rush (6^th in C-USA in sacks) and an offense that has been, at least, competent. Good news: Thomas Morstead is the league’s punter at 44.17 yards per kick.
UAB – The Blazers improved against UCF, but still weren’t close and now close the year with two road games against Memphis and Marshall. This team has fallen so far since playing out of their mind at Mississippi State. After beating Tulane the next week, it’s been 4 losses by a combined 118 points. In a league this balanced, that’s a mark of a team behind the times.

Bowling Green 39, Eastern Michigan 32

2007-11-10T02:45:00.000-06:00

Bowling Green (3-2, 4-3, 6-5) overcame two turnovers to beat Eastern Michigan 39-32 and keep its fledgling MAC East title hopes alive.

Quarterback Tyler Sheehan led the Falcons in both passing (20-32, 230 yards) and rushing (10 cars, 65 yards) and accounted for two touchdowns to spoil Senior Night in Ypsilanti.

The Friday night ESPNU telecast was a back and forth affair, marked both by Eastern’s strong straight-ahead running game and its inability to capitalize on opportunities.

Eastern Michigan (2-2, 2-4, 3-8) got 155 yards on 31 carries from the game’s leading rusher, Pierre Walker, and also got 114 more rushing yards from six additional ball carriers. But the Eagles couldn’t take advantage of some gifts, courtesy of the BGSU offense.

Early in the third quarter, a BGSU running back fumbled while running towards the end zone. The ball laid on the ground, was kicked and grabbed for by players from both sides and seemed certain to be recovered by the Eagles. But Eastern was unable to either recover or kick the ball out the back of the end zone, and BGSU lineman Shane Steffy recovered for a touchdown. The score made the tally 21-20, with the one point difference courtesy of Zach Johnson’s missed second quarter extra point.

Eastern was able to add two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, but in each case, failed to convert 2-point plays that they were only attempting because of the original missed point after. Therefore, after QB Andy Schmitt scored on a nifty fake Statue of Liberty QB keeper, the Eagles lead only 32-31 when they should have, by all rights, led 34-31.

After that play, the Falcons moved right down the field with a mix of mid-range passes and off-tackle runs, getting a 1 yard sneak from Sheehan on his second try. BGSU did convert on its 2-point play, to grab the lead back, 39-32.

The Eagles were unable to move past the 50 on offense, and the Falcons took over, earned on first down, and ran out the clock.

Eastern Michigan’s offensive distribution was impressive; seven receivers caught 12 passes for 134 yards, and seven ball carriers rushed for 269 yards. The Eagles were hurt, once again, but a surprisingly inept defense and an inability to capitalize on opportunities.

To win the East, BGSU must beat Buffalo next Saturday, have Buffalo beat Kent State, and get a Miami loss to Akron or Ohio. Then, to this writer’s current understanding of the MAC’s convoluted tiebreaker formula, the Falcons would win a three-way tiebreaker between Buffalo, Miami and themselves to advance to the title game.

Akron 48, Ohio 37

2007-11-08T01:03:00.000-06:00

contest that most predicted Ohio would win in a low-scoring affair, the in-state rivals put up 85 total points and returned two kicks for scores as Akron moved to 4-6 with the victory.

The Zips got a 95-yard kick return from Bryan Williams in the first to start their scoring, and didn’t stop until Alex Allen’s 1-yard dive gave them a 48-31 lead with 35 seconds to play. Akron’s offense scored double digits in every quarter, and got an impressive outing from junior Alex Allen, who rushed for a season high 96 yards and 3 TD on 14 carries.

Akron (2-3, 3-3, 4-6) ended any remaining chance the Bobcats had to win the MAC East, and kept its own scant bowl hopes alive.

The Bobcats moved the ball well at first, as all-time leading rusher Kalvin McRae sprung 54 yards up the right sideline on his way to a 90 yard first quarter. After McRae’s scoring run, the Bobcats led, 10-7, but the Akron D stiffened. McRae got less than 25 yards the rest of the way, and the visitors didn’t reach the end zone again until thirty seconds remained in the third quarter.

By that time, Akron had built a 34-16 lead, but the incredible leaping catch by Taylor Price in the end zone cut the deficit to 12. A two-point pass to Chido Nwokocha made it a ten point game. The Zips’ stalled offensively, and Ohio got an 11-yard TD pass from Brad Bower to Andrew Mooney with 8 minutes remaining to slice the lead to 3.

But Akron had an answer. Alternating hand offs to Bryan Williams with short tosses to Jabari Arthur, the Zips moved down the field in nine plays, getting a 22-yard toss from Chris Jacquemain to tight end Kris Kasparek for a 41-31 lead.

Both teams scored again in a wild final minute. The Bobcats final score, another TD toss from Bower to Mooney, came with no time remaining, and an extra point was not attempted.

Ohio’s Brad Bower threw for 239 yards and 3 scores, but spent most of the night making inaccurate passes in to the Akron coverage. McRae paced the Bobcats with 21 carries for 109 yards.

The Akron attack was aided by Jabari Arthur’s biggest receiving game in a month. Arthur, who two weeks ago was the MAC’s leading receiver, had struggled to get uncorked in recent weeks. He finished the night with 8 catches for 129 yards and a score.

Ohio (2-3, 3-4, 5-6) now gets 16 days off before its season finale, following an intense run of 3 games in 12 days. Akron, who had the same 12 day stretch, is back in action at Miami next Wednesday, before wrapping 10 days later at home against West champ Central Michigan.

C-USA Week 10 Review

2007-11-04T22:38:00.000-06:00

Game of the Week:

Rice 56, UTEP 48 – UTEP’s inability to compete for a full four quarters has been the Miners’ undoing all year, and this one, a 28-point fourth quarter gag undid them right out of any hope to win the C-USA West. Rice rattled off three Chase Clement TD passes and and a Clement TD run with 8 minutes in the fourth quarter to turn a 10-point deficit into an 8-point lead. Of course, this was after UTEP dominated the 2^nd and 3^rd quarters with an A-game performance, 39-14. Rice junior Jarrett Dillard is now the conference’s second leading pass catcher on the year.

Best of the Rest:

ECU 56, Memphis 40 – ECU lit the lamp for the fifth straight week against C-USA foes, with at least 37 points against every single opponent in that span. The only conference foe to hold the Pirates below 37 was Southern Miss, and that was way back on September 15^th. Chris Johnson vaulted himself in to the nation’s top 30 rushers with a 301 yard, 4 score performance on just 20 carries. ECU only got 105 yards throwing from Patrick Pinkney, but it didn’t matter, as the swashbucklers out ran the Tigers by a whopping 491-77. Memphis got a big day from Martin Hankins, but they’re not going to win many games where they attempt 60 passes.

Houston 38, SMU 28 – Phil Bennett’s troops came out with an inspired effort in front of the ESPN cameras, stomping on the Cougar logo before the game. I guess when you’ve already gotten your public pink slip, you can just stop caring. Regardless, the buzz wore off faster than a cappuccino, as Houston got 153 rushing yards from Alridge and 117 yards from Avery to win by 10. The tally was 31-14 at half before Houston let up a little bit and allowed the Ponies with 3 before icing it late.

Ho Hum:

Tulsa 49, Tulane 25 – This game was a surprisingly dull affair, but that’s a welcome thing for Tulsa fans after some too-close-for-comfort calls in the last few weeks. Tulsa rolled up 600 yards and kept Matt Forte dutifully in check, limiting the nation’s leading rusher to just 103 yards on 26 tries. Jamad Williams dazzled in his debut as a Tulsa feature back, busting off 153 yards on 31 carries to outduel Forte. Tulsa also won the QB battle, as Paul Smith looked surehanded, throwing for 319 yards on just 27 pass attempts.

Booooooooring

Southern Miss 37, UAB 7 – Man, the Blazers have gone in the tank. Southern Miss blew UAB out of the water, leading 30-nil at the half, and winning by 30. UAB’s leading rusher, Joseph Webb, had just 38 yards, while 5 Southern Miss Golden Eagles topped the half-century mark as part of a smothering rushing attack that netted 362 yards on 56 attempts. Bright spots for the Blazers….mmm…Sylvester Mencer, 4 catches for 65 yards? It’s a stretch, I know. I’m trying.

UCF 47, Marshall 13 – The Herd got back to business after last week’s stirring win with a predictable 34 point loss to UCF. Outside of his 87-yard score, Kevin Smith only had 101 yards on 28 carries, but that’s kind of a classic “Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how’d you like the play?” The home run sprint put UCF up 20-0 and really knocked Marshall out of the game. Redshirt freshman Brian Watters caught a couple of TD scores from the arm of Kyle Israel. The Knights looked crisp, without a single penalty all day.

C-USA Week 11 Power Rankings

2007-11-04T22:37:00.000-06:00

East Carolina – The Pirates are an offensive machine, and I’m shocked, quite frankly. Where did this come from? It doesn’t matter who’s playing QB, RB or anywhere: ECU is dropping points left and right on everybody, with five straight 37-plus point performances against C-USA foes. That kind of offensive output isn’t exactly novel in the conference, but when it’s coupled with a defense like ECU’s rush D (3^rd in league), the combo is deadly.
Houston – After finishing off SMU despite a lot of Pony moxie Sunday night, the Cougars come to Tulsa next week with the C-USA West lead and the conference’s most balanced offense, by far. If any of you caught tonight’s ESPN telecast, commentator Bill Curry called RB Anthony Aldridge and WR Donnie Avery “one of the most dynamic playmaking duos in the history of the NCAA.” Really? Wow. They’re good, but, Bill….come on….
UCF – Down half a game plus a tiebreak to ECU, the Knights need a Pirate loss to either Marshall or Tulane to keep their title hopes alive. Even if they don’t make the C-USA title tilt, the resurgence of football in Orlando might make UCF an attractive bowl option with 8 wins. With UAB, SMU and UTEP on deck, I’d be shocked if UCF doesn’t get to at least 8-4.
Tulsa – Tulsa got a solid win over a C-USA foe for the first time in forever, and with the UTEP loss to Rice, the Golden Hurricane will win the West by beating Houston and the Owls. Houston’s supremely balanced offense will test Tulsa’s struggling defense, which ranks in the bottom 20 nationally against both rush and pass. Still, the solid performance this weekend against Matt Forte has to encourage TU fans.
Southern Miss – The Golden Eagles have been all over the map this season, but can still win the East if they get in to a tiebreaker with ECU, who they beat way back on September 15^th. If So. Miss gets to 7-4 by beating Memphis and UTEP, an intriguing cross-conference season ender with Arkansas State could make the difference between bowl game or bust.
Memphis – Martin Hankins threw 60 passes this weekend against ECU, and even though Hankins continues to impress, there’s no chance Memphis will win any more games if he’s throwing that often. The Tigers need more from Joseph Doss on the ground, where he’s only given Memphis more than 50 yards once since September 1^st. The O-Line continues to excel, allowing Memphis QBs to be sacked just 1.11 times per game, but the D-Line is getting pushed around, better than only one other C-USA team in sacks and TFL.
Tulane – I can’t believe I’m ranking this 2-7 team 7^th, especially since they’ve lost so many close games. But the five below teams have looked incredibly poor at so many times on the year, and the Wave have always looked at least competent. I would be more alarmed at Tulane’s 111^th ranked pass D, but maybe I shouldn’t be – the conference has 5 teams in the bottom 9 nationally.
Rice – Let’s try to not get crazy here, but the Owls are 2 wins from a .500 C-USA campaign, which would be a nice achievement considering how bad this program has been lately. SMU is a dead duck this season, so Rice should be 3-3 with home dates against Tulane and Tulsa. Can Brian Raines, Scott Solomon and the big boys up front keep a lid on Matt Forte and get win #4?
UTEP – This may be a bit low for the Miners, who probably won’t win or lose a game by more than 7 the rest of the year, but my gut tells me that after letting the West lead slip away in a three game home stand against the league’s best, the Miners are mentally done for the year. How else do you explain the outing against Rice, where the Miners gave up 56 points, 550 yards and 26 first downs to what is still the league’s 11^th best offense?
Marshall – Somehow, the Herd is two rungs off the floor despite having just one win on the season. This is more a function of SMU and UAB futility
SMU – Perhaps reports of the Ponies’ demise were greatly exaggerated by yours truly. Four of SMU’s last five losses have come by 10 or less, but nonetheless, Phil Bennett is still gone at season’s end. If Justin Willis can cut down on the INTs (14:11 TD:INT ratio), he could join the league’s elite QBs next season.
UAB – The Blazers have been the walking dead since beating Tulane, losing their last three by a total tally of 127-23. That’s horrendous in a league that boasts close games every single week. The UAB offense can’t do anything, converting just 4 of 17 possession downs, and getting no more than 38 rushing yards from one player. Yow. Things are bad when you’re ranked below SMU and almost certain to be a dog to Marshall in the season finale.

C-USA Week 11 Preview

2007-11-04T22:27:00.001-06:00

Game of the Week:

Houston at Tulsa – The battle for the West comes to Oklahoma this weekend with a bit of a role reversal. Tulsa has been squeaking by teams all year, but comes in to the contest off a big win over Tulane, while Houston got more than it wanted from SMU on Sunday night. The Golden Hurricane benefits from a few things here – both the home field and an extra day of rest compared to the Cougars. UH is probably the C-USA’s most solid team across the board, but has a weakness for turnovers. The Cougars don’t protect the ball like they should, so if Tulsa wins the turnover battle, I think they’ll win the game. They will, and they will. Tulsa 41, Houston 34.

Best of the Rest:

Memphis at Southern Miss – The Tigers don’t have one of the C-USA’s best teams, but still do possess one of the league’s best records, at 3-2 in the league. The three wins are by a combined 7 points over Marshall, Rice and Tulane, so Memphis should be no match for a So. Miss squad that, though inconsistent, is one turnover-plagued night against Rice away from leading its division. Incumbent to the Golden Eagles’ success is pressure on Memphis QB Martin Hankins. Memphis protects its QB better than anyone in the league, but So. Miss’ Maratavius Prince leads the league in sacks and will put Hankins on his back at least once. Southern Miss 38, Memphis 21.

Ho Hum:

UTEP at Tulane – This one doesn’t interest me too much, except that UTEP can’t play a non-exciting game, so you know there will be some fireworks. If you told me before this game that the final score would be 77-74, Trevor Vittatoe would pass for 600 yards, Matt Forte would run for 800, and aliens would land on the field just in time to overturn the final referee decision via instant replay, I wouldn’t be surprised at all. Tulane 40, UTEP 3

Boooooring:

Rice at SMU – The Ponies put up a fight against Houston, and I think the letdown comes this week. Another Texas tussle it is, but this time streaking Rice is the opponent. OK, so the Owls have only won one game straight, but that’s a streak by Ricean standards, and if Chase Clement is anything like the Clement that showed up against UTEP, SMU will be in for a long, long day. SMU’s best offensive weapon is punter Thomas Morstead, 15^th nationally with a 44.11 yard average per kick. He’ll get plenty of practice. Rice 30, SMU 27.

ECU at Marshall – The Pirates are rolling squads left and right, and Marshall enters off a 34-point loss to UCF. If Marshall does one thing well, it’s pass; behind Bernard Morris’ arm, the Herd ranks 28^th nationally throwing the ball, which may serve them well against ECU’s 115^th ranked pass defense. The best team in the C-USA has the nation’s 115^th ranked pass D? Is that even possible? Apparently it is, and the Pirates are good enough elsewhere to overcome a big day from Morris. Closer than you think, but not close enough. ECU 39, Marshall 30.

UCF at UAB – The way UAB is going right now, the Blazers could have played the Dallas Cowboy cheerleaders, and it would have bored me to tears. They’ve lost three straight C-USA games by 102 combined points and look absolutely stinkerrific

Virginia Tech vs. Florida State preview

2007-11-04T20:38:00.002-06:00

Just when you thought the tough part of the schedule was in the past, here comes Florida State. The Seminoles beat BC in a game that might go a long way toward getting FSU’s once proud program off the mat to become ACC title contenders again. Let’s take a look at the challenges FSU presents.

FLORIDA STATE (6-3, 3-3 ACC)

Offense: Drew Weatherford might define the word “embattled.” It seems like the junior QB has won, lost, and won the QB job all over again almost every week this year, but after all of it, Weatherford finally seems to be peaking. Check out the numbers the last two weeks: 35-47 for 339 yards vs. Duke, 29-45 for 354 yards at Florida State. When you pair those kind of numbers with the raw athleticism FSU boasts on the edges all over the field, the combination is there for a very potent offensive attack. Weatherford has thrown just 1 INT in 192 attempts this year, a gigantic improvement on the 11 picks he threw in 311 attempts last year.

Antone Smith is FSU’s leading rusher, with 643 yards on 162 attempts. With Xavier Lee now riding pine, FSU doesn’t have anyone other than Smith with more than 87 rushing yards on the season. Obviously, the onus is on Smith to carry the load, and FSU seems to now exactly how much they want him to do offensively. The last three weeks, Smith has lugged the pig 22, 23 and 22 times. Another added consideration for the Hokies on D is that all of Smith’s big receiving days have come with Weatherford under center. Smith caught 5 passes in both the Clemson and Boston College games; Tech needs to mark him coming out of the backfield.

Preston Parker, Greg Carr and De’Cody Fagg represent a fearsome trio of talented receivers. All three are in the ACC’s top 9 in yards, and Parker leads the way with 46 catches for 609 yards and three scores. De’Cody Fagg is the hottest right now, with 15 catches and 245 yards from the hot hand of Weatherford in the last two weeks. The offensive line has allowed 1.78 sacks per game this year, good for 55^th nationally and 5^th in the league. The protection numbers aren’t bad, but considering the unit spent a good portion of the year blocking for the elusive Xavier Lee, and the pretty bad rushing numbers (96^th nationally), the offensive line has to be seen has a weakness Tech must exploit.

Defense: Although not quite the wall-to-wall athlete fest of old, Florida State’s defense is still a fearsome unit with big play potential in every line of defense. Geno Hayes is a stud linebacker with 136 career tackles and 31 career TFL. Hayes had the game sealing INT and TD at Boston College, and had at least one TFL in each of the previous six games. Derek Nicholson is a junior linebacker that has really come on this season. After recording just 6 tackles in the first five games of last year, Nicholson has 64 in his junior campaign, good for first on the team.

Up front, Everette Brown leads the team in sacks, with 5, but hasn’t had one since October 11^th against Wake Forest, and has actually only registered 4 total tackles since that game. DeKoda Watson is in the opposite boat from Brown, with all his TFL coming in the last five games. Watson is a sophomore with a really high upside, and a growing danger to make plays all over the field.

After FSU’s two leading tacklers, Nicholson and Hayes, the next four leading tackle men are secondary players, which may or may not be a good sign. Since the FSU pass D is 72^nd nationally and 10^th in the league, I have to think part of the reason for those padded tackle stats is the corners’ inability to cover receivers tightly. Roger Williams, Myron Rolle, Michael Ray Garvin and Tony Carter are the four players in the question, and have only 5 INT this year between them. You have to think part of FSU’s strategy will be to go after QB Sean Glennon in a big way. If that happens, FSU will likely play tight coverage against the Tech receivers. If the ‘Nole corners can’t hang with Tech’s deep threats, Glennon could uncork some big plays.

Special Teams

Senior kicker Gary Cismesia has 277 career points, and is a lock for high ACC honors this year. Cismesia has kicked 19 of 25 FG on the year and is tied for 2^nd in the nation in made kicks. Punter Graham Cano has been good too, with a 42.38 yard punting average that ranks 32^nd nationally. None of the return teams have distinguished themselves in either a positive or negative light.

Prediction

I doubted Tech last week, and I won’t again. FSU got a big win at BC, and in some cases that would be cause for alarm. But over the last couple years, the ‘Noles have been mercurial as it gets. This is a team prone to proving itself in a big way, then losing the chip on their shoulder and laying an egg the following week. I think Tech clamps down on the dormant FSU rushing game, forcing Drew Weatherford to beat them. He can, but he won’t, not this time, anyway. Virginia Tech 24, Florida State 13.

MAC Power Rankings: Week 11

2007-11-04T20:38:00.001-06:00

Central Michigan – The Chips’ ticket for Detroit is all but punched, as CMU needs to win just one of the in-state clashes against WMU and EMU to advance to the title tilt. Both clashes should be emotional, but with the way Central has rolled conference opponents this year, I don’t see them losing both. So the question is: how good can they be the rest of the year, and who will be the opponent in Detroit? The defense still ranks 114^th nationally in yards and 113^th nationally in scoring; can they hone the attack in preparation for a title run?
Ball State – The Cardinals went for the Big Ten over the last two weeks, a disappointment to many in the MAC still hoping the league would accrue one signature non-conference victory this year. Still, the Cardinals should finish 7-5 with wins over Toledo and NIU. Ball State has been great at protecting the football this year (7^th nationally in turnover margin), and will make an enticing bowl participant if the International or GMAC bowls pick them up.
Miami – I’ve seen the Redhawks in person three times this year, and every time, they’ve won intense, down-to-the wire battles with defense. This week, the Redhawk D stuffed Buffalo with the MAC East on the line, and now two more wins will give the ‘Hawks a division title. Daniel Raudabaugh’s passes have more zip on them every time I come to town, and the D deserves a lot of credit for stuffing James Starks after the initial 92-yard run.
Buffalo – So close. The Bulls were three points away from locking up the MAC East for all intents and purposes, but came up just short with a valiant effort at Oxford. The defense wasn’t quite tough enough to contain Miami on the edges, but the Bulls never quit, getting 10 points in the last 34 seconds of the first half, and almost pulling it out at the end. Naaman Roosevelt is going to be a big, big-time player.
Ohio – My trip to Athens this weekend came just as Ohio is peaking, and I think I’ve got a scenario figured out that would still bring the East title to The Plains. Either way, the Bobcats are running and stopping the run better now, and might get a chance to play spoiler on the season’s final weekend against Miami. Kalvin McRae is third in the MAC in rushing yards, but leads the league in hilarious facial expressions.
Bowling Green – The Falcons are still the league’s most mercurial team, sandwiching brutal losses to Miami and Ohio between convincing wins over Kent, Akron and Temple. The BGSU secondary hasn’t gotten much league-wide attention, but sophomore P.J. Mahone is 4^th nationally with 6 INT, and the unit is 2^nd in the MAC against the pass.
Toledo – Offensively, the Rockets haven’t been held under 28 points since September 15^th against now #4 Kansas. So, they should be a MAC leader, right? Well, the defense hasn’t met a missed tackle it didn’t like, and no one in the Glass City has heard the term “coverage sack” since 2006. 115^th nationally in sacks (with 9), and 118^th in TFL (with an awful 4.2 per game), the Rockets need to create negative plays to win this week at Ball State.
Eastern Michigan – Jeff Genyk is making baby steps with the EMU program, but are they coming quickly enough? The defense is a solid unit, but just got bombed over and over again by Toledo this weekend en route to surrendering 52 points. How do these things happen, just 7 days after the unit holds WMU to a 2-point safety? You got me.
Western Michigan – Although I’d vote for Kent State, a lot of MAC observers would say the Broncos are this year’s biggest disappointment. That can all change if Western beats Central to kick off a three-game run that culminates in a MAC West title. To do it, they’ll need to beat Central, have EMU beat Central, and hope that Ball State loses twice. In the words of Jerry Seinfeld, “good luck with allll……that.”
Temple – The Owl D kept Temple in it Friday night at Peden, but the offense misses QB Adam DiMichele. With Penn State coming to town this weekend, the chance of going .500 is almost 0. For my money, Temple needs to beat either Kent State or WMU in the season’s final two weeks to cement all the momentum it built up this year over the offseason.
Akron – You get the feeling the Zips have never quite recovered from their little two-game roller coaster on which they won and lost a game in the final seconds. Carlton Jackson and Chris Jacquemain might consider these last three games an audition for next year’s starting job; hopefully for Akron, one of the two steps up and wins the job. QB by committee hasn’t worked this year.
Kent State – After an impressive debut against CMU, let’s see how freshman Giorgio Martin improves with the help of a bye week before facing NIU this weekend. Kicker Nate Reed has been a bright spot, with 15 of 20 FGs on the year.
Northern Illinois – Larry English really should get some serious consideration for MAC defensive player of the year. English has 8 of NIU’s 13 sacks; imagine what he’d be able to accomplish on a team with other defensive weapons that demanded attention. Not only has the rest of the Huskie pass rush been non-existent, but the entire D only has 6 picks in 9 games. NIU’s offense can occasionally move the ball behind Justin Anderson, but they don’t get big plays; that kind of handicap demands a turnover hungry defense.

SEC Power Rankings: Week Eleven

2007-11-04T15:59:00.000-06:00

Auburn – I’m going to go out on a limb here. Yeah, yeah, Auburn lost to LSU on a last-second play on LSU’s home field two weeks ago. I know that. But these rankings represent which squad would win on a neutral field if they played now, and how can anyone argue against Auburn? The defense has been absolutely lights out, and with as weak as LSU’s D has been lately, you’d have to think they’d stand a good chance to reverse the 6 point loss on LSU’s turf.
LSU – The Tigers cling to BCS title game hopes, but with Arkansas and the East winner waiting in the title game, it won’t be easy. Furthermore, the defense has been very substandard the last few weeks. Get this: after giving up 32 total points in the first five weeks, LSU hasn’t held an opponent below 24 for the last four games. LSU will be a fine representative for the SEC wherever it goes, but with Ohio State, Oregon, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Boston College looking very good, I’m no longer convinced this is one of the nation’s best two teams.
Georgia – The Bulldogs got a bit of a scare from Troy, but no matter. The Trojans are a very capable Sun Belt squad which had a lot to play for, and Georgia survived. I think UT is going to lose again, so if UGA beats Auburn and UK, they’ll win the East. But the pass D has to be better: at 10^th in the SEC in efficiency defense, UK’s efficiency captain Andre Woodson could give them fits.
Florida – The Gators are still fighting, but three losses means 2007 is a letdown, and the best plan now is to continue to experiment with schemes that work offensively while taking pressure off Tim Tebow to do it all. Vanderbilt didn’t pose much of a threat, but getting 100 yards from two running backs helped Tebow survive.
Alabama – I guess I finally have to give the Tide credit, after a solid performance that saw them give LSU a game that should have been at least headed to overtime before a John Parker Wilson fumble in the final minutes. The future is bright with Terry Grant in the backfield; Wallace Gilberry has turned in to quite the sack machine, with seven QB sacks in his last 4 games.
Tennessee – The Vols are typically mercurial this year, with major disappointments against Cal, Florida and Alabama sandwiched around super-impressive wins against Georgia and South Carolina. Which Vols show up this Saturday against Arkansas? With the 74^th ranked rush defense in the nation preparing to face the law firm of McFadden & Jones, UT fans better hope Good Vols leave Bad Vols at home.
Arkansas – The Hogs finally got a big-time BCS win by putting up a ton of points against South Carolina and kickstarting what they hope is a late season Heisman run by Run DMC. Let’s see now how the Razorbacks perform as road warriors in Knoxville this week against the nation’s 74^th ranked rush D. Too bad the Arkansas offense lives in the pre-forward pass stone age; UT’s 84^th ranked pass D is pretty bad, too.
South Carolina – The Gamecocks’ early season flirtation with BCS glory is over, and so are their SEC title hopes. I can’t really prove causality here, but the ‘Cocks have really struggled since Spurrier showed the quick hook with freshman QB Chris Smelley. SC is now 6-4, and with Florida and Clemson up ahead, it is conceivable, don’t laugh, that the Gamecocks could miss a bowl game altogether. That would get the chicken coop crowing.
Mississippi State – The Bulldogs got a well-deserved week of rest after the big win at Kentucky, and now lie in wait for Alabama. The offense, especially the passing game, is still pretty bad, ranking at 113^th nationally. However, with two weeks to prepare for a ‘Bama squad coming off its biggest game of the year, MSU has a great chance to pull off a program-defining upset to get bowl eligible.
Kentucky – All of Lexington feels like a church on Monday now, just three weeks removed from being the talk of college football after the LSU game, the ‘Cats have a losing SEC record and it’s officially basketball season. Still, with three winnable games on the schedule (Vandy, UGA and Tennessee), and an underrated pass D (20^th nationally), Kentucky still could sneak their way to New Year’s Day with a 9-3 record and a hungry fan base.
Vanderbilt – The Commodores had hopes of catching UF napping Saturday, but those dreams went bye-bye pretty quickly, and Vandy got routed by 27. At 5-4, the Commodores need one more win to go bowling, and if it comes in the SEC, they’re in for sure. I’m not sure how many receivers in SEC history have caught for 800 yards and 70 catches four straight years, but junior Earl Bennett is already on that pace for the third straight year.
Ole Miss – The Rebs take up the cellar for the umpteenth week in a row, and the offense, which had been a bright spot for awhile, has only scored 11 total points in its last 2 SEC games. Greg Hardy has 10 sacks in 10 games. Well done, sir.

SEC Review: Week Ten

2007-11-04T14:31:00.000-06:00

Game of the Week:

LSU 41, Alabama 34 – The Tigers are an instant classic every time they step on the field, and the only ones disappointed Saturday were ‘Bama fans, as the Bayou Bengals kept their national title hopes alive and well by scoring the last 14 points to beat Alabama. Things looked bleak when Javier Arenas returned a punt for 61 yards and a TD to give Bama the lead with 7 and a half to play. But LSU came back as usual, getting a 32-yard TD pass from Matt Flynn to Early Doucet on fourth down to tie it. Then Christmas came early in Baton Rouge, as John Parker Wilson coughed up the ball inside his own 10 with two minutes left, leading to Jacob Hester’s winning 1-yard plunge. Really, LSU should have won by a lot more; they outgained the Tide by 220 yards, but Flynn’s 3 picks and some special teams breakdowns were costly.

Best of the Rest:

Arkansas 48, South Carolina 38 – Darren McFadden finally got uncorked, and just in time for the big stage, going off for an SEC record 323 yards. McFadden threw for a TD, too, and we’ll see if the horse has left the barn on his Heisman candidacy. If the enormous outing gets some run in the national media, he’s got a great chance to be in New York. SC’s offense had no problem, but the Gamecock defense was chicken feed against the Hog rushing game, surrendering 650 total yards, 541 of which came on the ground. This game should serve as some measure of proof that time of possession is the dumbest stat around: Arkansas had the ball just 22 minutes, but they were scoring so quickly, they didn’t have the pig that often.

Georgia 44, Troy 34 – This one got a little dicey for the ‘Dawgs, but in hindsight, Georgia fans should look at this one as a slightly off day against a very sound, talented, motivated opponent. If I had a vote (and I don’t, damn the AP), Knowshon Moreno would be easily a top-three choice for national Freshman of the Year, and a lock for the freshman All-America team. The kid cemented his candidacy with a 26 carry, 196 yard, 3 TD performance that included the put-away score late in the fourth. Omar Haugabook lit up the Bulldog D with 310 passing yards, a figure that has to alarm the Georgia secondary just a little. The only place more exciting to watch this than Stanford was Las Vegas: Troy scored with 5 seconds left to cover the game’s 16 point spread.

Ho Hum:

Florida 49, Vandy 22 – The Gators did what they needed to do, beating up on a less-skilled opponent to the tune of a 2-1 yardage ratio and a 27 point win. Vandy’s defense had been solid to date, but was absolutely no match for a motivated Florida squad. Gator offense got a lift from Percy Harvin and Kestahn Moore, who both rushed for their highest totals since September, as Florida continues to search for ways to leave Tim Tebow with fewer Sunday bruises. Vandy’s offense went pretty much nowhere, but Jeff Jennings looked solid in limited duty, getting 37 yards on 6 tries.

Ole Miss 38, Northwestern State 31 – The Rebs will take whatever they can get right now, and good thing too: this was an ugly old win over a bad, bad opponent at Vaugh-Hemingway. The Rebels led by 17 twice, but couldn’t exorcise the Demons, letting NW State back to within a touchdown on each occasion. Oh, and they were outgained by 112 yards and 9 first downs. The best thing Ole Miss can do for their future right now is to start doing whatever they can to prepare for Mississippi State and the Egg Bowl. Ruining their rival’s season is their best get some attention and public respect this year.

Booooooooooooring:

Tennessee 59, UL-Lafayette 7 – The Vols got a perfectly useless win headed in to next week’s showdown with Arkansas. Tennessee only needed 460 total yards to crush the Ragin’ Cajuns, getting two non-offensive TDs and 100 rushing yards from both Lennon Creer and Adrian Foster to win easily. On the other hand, UT surrendered 234 rushing yards to the Cajuns, a number that doesn’t bode well with Arkansas coming to town next week.

Auburn 35, Tennessee Tech 3 – The Tiger defense is playing absolutely amazingly right now, and even though the opponent wasn’t high quality, it’s still so impressive how the Auburn D seems to bring it week after week. With the exception of the LSU, Auburn hasn’t surrendered more than 7 points since September, and their across the board excellence (3^rd SEC in rush D, 3^rd SEC in pass D, 1^st in scoring D) will present Knowshon Moreno, Matt Stafford and the Georgia offense their stiffest test.

Buffalo at Miami Game Story

2007-11-04T02:19:00.001-06:00

Miami used crisp passing and a run-stuffing defense to beat Buffalo 31-28 in a showdown of MAC East leaders Saturday at Yager Stadium.

The Redhawks (3-1, 4-1, 5-5) gave up a 92-yard first quarter TD run to James Starks, but buckled down and limited Buffalo’s potent ground game to just 103 yards. Starks finished with 148 rushing yards for Buffalo, but 6 sacks of Bull QB Drew Willy were harmful both to UB’s rushing totals and their chances of winning in Oxford.

Daniel Raudabaugh was Miami’s big gun on offense; the quarterback, who is still filling in for an injured Mike Kokal, completed 20 of 26 passes for 259 yards and 2 TDs. Raudabaugh was never sacked, and afterward Redhawk head coach Shane Armstrong cited Miami’s lack of negative plays as a big reason for their success.

“We did very well on third down today,” Armstrong said, “because we put ourselves in a position to have a lot of third and shorts instead of third and longs.”

Miami converted 8 of 15 third down chances, and scored on 5 of 6 red zone opportunities. Despite the Redhawks’ solid all-around performance, and a yardage disparity that saw Miami outgain Buffalo 475-320, the Bulls had a chance to win late, but came up empty.

After Naaman Roosevelt caught a 3-yard fade pass from Willy with 2:54 to play, Willy threw a 2-point pass to Brett Hamlin to cut Miami’s lead to 3. The Bull defense forced a three and out, and after a Miami punt, Buffalo took over at its own 30 with 2:27 to go. The Bulls got one first down to the Miami 45, but on 2^nd and 10, Willy was sacked by Jeff Thompson and fumbled. Travis Craven recovered, and the Redhawks needed merely to burn the last minute of clock to seal the win.

Buffalo (3-1, 4-2, 4-6) now gets a bye week before facing Bowling Green at UB Stadium in two weeks. The Bulls are still very much alive in the MAC East race, along with only Miami and Bowling Green. But both other squads are now dependent on a Miami loss, and Raudabaugh said after the game that repossessing first place was the goal on this gorgeous late autumn afternoon.

“It’s a good feeling to be in this position, and it’s a good position that we’re in,” Raudabaugh said. “We wanted to come in today, and take back the MAC East.”

One of the MAC’s traditional powers got all it wanted from the conference upstart who proved yet again, even in defeat, that it is a dangerous football team.

Naaman Roosevelt sparkled again for the Bulls, with 6 catches for 39 yards and 2 scores, including the late TD that brought Buffalo within 5. Roosevelt’s first score came with just 34 seconds remaining in the first half, and cut an early Redhawk lead to 17-14. On the ensuing kickoff, Miami fumbled, giving the Bulls great field position with just seconds to go in the half. An A.J. Principe field goal at the first half gun tied the score and sent Buffalo in to the locker room riding the wave of momentum.

“I just told my guys that I was going to tell them the same time I told them at half time of the Bowling Green game,” Armstrong said, in reference to a recent contest which Miami led, 30-7, at half. “I told them that we have to get better and play better in the second half.”

The Redhawks did just that, scoring a TD on its first second half drive to go up 24-17.

Miami plays Akron at Yager in 11 days then travels to Peden Stadium for a date with Ohio in the regular season finale. If the Redhawks win both, they’ll be in Detroit for the MAC Championship game. If Miami falters, Buffalo can take the title with wins to close the year against Bowling Green and Kent State.

For Bowling Green to win the East, one of the following scenarios must occur:

BGSU wins out, and both Miami and Buffalo lose out.
Miami and Buffalo each lose once more, and BGSU wins out.
BGSU beats Buffalo and Miami loses twice.

If Bowling Green ends up one-on-one with Miami, they will lose the tiebreaker, but the Falcons can still grab a tiebreaker over Buffalo with a win in two weeks.

Temple at Ohio Game Story

2007-11-04T02:18:00.001-06:00

Ohio continued its late season surge with a 23-7 victory over Temple on a chilly Friday night at Peden Stadium.

The Bobcats (2-2, 3-3, 5-5) have won three of their last four, are still mathematically alive for the MAC East crown.

Ohio dominated the Owls, outgaining them 404-209, and holding Temple to just two rushing first downs. The Owls earned just 48 total rushing yards on 31 attempts, a result that reminded many of the way Ohio won games last year, when it won the East title.

Temple (2-3, 3-3, 3-6) was able to move the ball with hard, quick-hitting runs right at the heart of the Ohio defense early in the contest. Owl RB Jason Harper, who finished with 49 yards on 14 carries, had a couple nice runs on the first drive alone. But the Bobcat defense buckled down, and the Owls’ only points would come on a 42-yard pass play from QB Vaughn Charlton to Bruce Francis.

Ohio RB Kalvin McRae, one week after crossing the 4,000 career yard mark to become Ohio’s all-time leading rusher, led all ball carriers with 151 yards on 28 carries. McRae’s 30-yard scoring run at the 4:20 mark of the first half gave Ohio a 10-0 lead.

The Bobcats opened the scoring with a 47-yard field goal from Michael Braunstein to lead 3-0. The ex-Washington Huskie would miss his next two attempts, but bounced back to second half field goals from 43 and 19 yards to finish with 11 points. A 22-yard gallop by backup running back Vince Davidson with under a minute to play in the third was Ohio’s other score.

Temple appeared to have the game’s momentum heading into half, following Charlton’s touchdown toss. After the half, the Owls stiffed Ohio three and out to earn first and ten at their own 39. But one penalty, one short play and one sack later, Temple faced 4^th and 19 and was punting again. The Owls would gain -2 yards on just 10 third quarter plays. Their only third period first down came courtesy of an Ohio pass interference penalty.

Ohio starting QB Theo Scott left the game in the second half with an undisclosed injury, and replacement Brad Bower filled in admirably, recording 7 of 9 completions for 91 yards.

LaVon Brazill led Ohio pass catchers with 59 yards on 4 catches. Francid led all receivers with 101 yards on 8 catches and the touchdown.

Ohio plays Akron on Wednesday at the Rubber Bowl, while Temple tangles with Penn State in Philadelphia next Saturday.

C-USA Preview: Week Ten

2007-10-31T15:55:00.000-05:00

If ESPN were trying to hype this week in the C-USA, what silly name would they give it? BorderWar Saturday? There are two border wars, and two in-state clashes…OK, that’s a stretch. Forget it, Week Ten needs no hype. Both the divisional leaders are looking to deliver another knock out punch, and the second place squads, Tulsa and UCF, are hanging on for dear life. What’s on tap? Wait no longer:

Game of the Week

East Carolina at Memphis – This has to be the game of the week, right? Surprising Memphis, who earlier this year I had all the way down at #10 in the power rankings, has a chance to seize the East with a win over visiting ECU. The Tigers have three C-USA wins by 7 points over bottom feeders Marshall, Rice and Tulane but nonetheless, control their own destiny in the title quest. ECU looks much better on paper, but Martin Hankins has this team turned over and looking surprisingly potent on offense (18^th nationally in passing). It’s the C-USA, so when in doubt, pick overtime. ECU 35, Memphis 32 (OT)

Best of the Rest

Tulsa at Tulane – Tulsa has been one of the best C-USA stories of 2007, a team with a bunch of talent that can’t seem to put bad teams away yet always seems capable of dropping a 50 spot on an opposing D. Paul Smith is one of the conference’s premier players, but with the help he’s getting from the defense, would need to be Heisman-worthy to lead this team to a marquee season, and he hasn’t been that. Matt Forte is finally getting some national love, but it isn’t to half the degree he deserves. Every person in the building knows he’ll be carrying, and Forte’s still good for 190 a game. David Skehan will pick a Paul Smith pass, but the Golden Hurricane eeks another close one. Tulsa 34, Tulane 30.

UTEP at Rice – You know that friend you have who you’re not really sure what to make of, but you always call him to hang out because he turns every night in to a crazy party, even if it ends in disaster? That’s UTEP. 6 of the Miners’ 7 games against FBS opponents have been decided by 5 points or less, including the last four coming down to a field goal or less. Rice is back at the bottom of the standings after gagging at Marshall, but is there any reason to think this will be a blow out? UTEP is the master at “keeping both teams in the game,” and if Chase Clement can keep Rice in the game, UTEP certainly won’t stop him. UTEP 38, Rice 34

Ho Hum

Marshall at UCF – Fresh off the heels of their first win, the Herd travels to Orlando for a date with a UCF squad clamoring to get back in the East race. Bernard Morris is actually a pretty exciting dual threat QB for the Herd, but the offense will be no match for the Knights, who are just now fully recovered from the USF beat down. I’m saying Kyle Israel out dual-threats Morris, and the Knights have it on ice by the late third. Let’s hope Marshall at least gets an Epcot visit out of the deal. UCF 41, Marshall 17.

Boooooooooooooring

Southern Miss at UAB – The Blazers have been absolutely awful lately, delivering two out and out stink bombs against Houston and ECU. Southern Miss, on the other hand, has been a tough team to peg, what with the big win at ECU and the awful loss to Rice at home. This seems like a classic trap game, for some reason, what with the Eagles coming off UCF and looking ahead to Memphis and UTEP the next two weeks. I know I’ve spilled a lot of ink on the woes of UAB, but I’m playing the trap game card and expecting the Blazers to create a lot of turnovers and squeak out the home upset. UAB 29, So. Miss 21.

SMU at Houston – Raise your hand if you want to see a Cougar eat a Pony? That’s what you’ll get this Saturday in H-Town as SMU ushers in the post-Bennett era by playing sacrificial lamb at the hands of the Cougars. I guess the Ponies could come out with a loose and wild performance, but I’m not counting on it against a Houston team that now sports a top-15 offense nationally in both rushing and passing and seems to be clicking on all cylinders with three straight conference wins. Donnie Avery catches 2 TDs and Rocky Schwartz takes an INT to the house: Cougars by a lot. Houston 40, SMU 20.

C-USA Power Rankings: Week Ten

2007-10-31T14:40:00.000-05:00

For the first time in a long time, we had a week without a bunch of movement among the top dogs. We’re one week closer to the finish line, though, so how will each team respond to the challenges in front of it?

Let’s take a look at how they’d stack up on a neutral field tomorrow:

1. East Carolina – The Pirates have been on top of the ladder for what seems like so long now, their feet ought to be checked for numbness. Any concerns that the NC State loss would wreck ECU’s confidence quickly eroded with the Pirates’ spanking of UAB. When you beat a team by 35, there are plenty of heroes, but Quentin Cotton was a beast on defense, nailing Blazer backs in the backfield three times. I’m still amazed that a team who looks so incredibly mediocre on paper is this solid on the field. But ECU leads the C-USA in one extremely important category: turnover margin.

2. Houston – Last month’s 37-35 loss to the Pirates looks more and more like a title game preview, with the Cougars 4-1 and getting dead beats SMU and Marshall at home in November. Ah, but wait – don’t forget Tulsa, who makes a last stand for the West title with a home date Houston next weekend. Unfortunately for the Golden Hurricane, their greatest strength is the Cougars’ as well. Houston’s 36^th ranked pass defense is tops in the league, as is their total D, scoring D, rush O and scoring O.

3. UCF – Exxon Valdez-like ink has been spilled over the Golden Knights’ offense and RB Kevin Smith. So what’s left to say? The defensive front has stepped up in an unheralded role, and the Leger Douzable unit has UCF third in the league in sacks. DB Sha’reff Rashad looks like he might be regaining his form of last season, when he had 4 picks. Rashad has two in the last two games.

4. UTEP – The big homestand ended with a thud as the Miners lost 34-31 to Houston Saturday, effectively ending their inside track to the West title. Down a game and a half plus tiebreaker to the Cougs, and with three of four road dates to end the year, the Miners have awfully long heads of winning the division. Marcus Thomas is yet another top-flight C-USA back, but the nation’s 117^th ranked pass defense hasn’t stopped anyone all year; it certainly won’t start doing so this week at Rice.

5. Tulsa – The boys from Oklahoma are C-USA’s best, last line of defense against an ECU/Houston title tilt, and you’d better believe that when Houston comes to town in two weeks, Tulsa will defend any chance they’ve got left like the Alamo. It was nice to see senior Chris Chamberlain post a 14-tackle game against SMU, and Chamberlain is just a few stops away from 250 career tackles now. Tulsa is a maddening outfit; they seem to boast so much potential, but have struggled against the better teams and beaten the C-USA’s bottom feeders by the skin of their collective teeth.

6. Memphis – The dark horse in all the title talk is Memphis, who is now getting some nifty QB play from Martin Hankins to go with a Jake Kasser-led defense that forces turnovers. Can the Tigers give ECU a run for its money this weekend? Vegas has made ECU a mere 5-point favorite, which might mean the upset is in the offing. Hankins is getting great protection from an offensive line allowing just 1 sack per game.

7. Southern Miss – The Golden Eagles had a big chance to make a statement Sunday against UCF, but didn’t, and now it’s a short week of prep for UAB, a team So. Miss should beat, but might not, given their recent history of struggling with weaker clubs. Like almost everyone else, the Eagles couldn’t slow Kevin Smith. Props to some defensive standouts: Martavius Prince still leads the C-USA in sacks, with 6.5, and Gerald McRate is the nation’s leading tackler, at 12.88 per game.

8. UAB – Halloween came early to Birmingham as UAB put up a frightful performance in the 41-6 loss to ECU. The Blazers haven’t been close at all in their last two outings against the C-USA big boys; will an extra day’s rest give them an edge over Southern Miss? Regardless how fresh the legs are, they’ve got to throw better. UAB’s just 116^th nationally in pass efficiency, and Sam Hunt’s TD:INT ratio of 8:10 has been brutal.

9. Tulane – This team just cannot finish close games. Tulane is literally three plays from being 5-3 and in the hunt for a bowl bid, but has given up scores with 36 seconds left and no time left to lose two close ones, and couldn’t finish against UAB in a game it should have won. If the Wave were leading the East and headed for a bowl bid, Matt Forte would have a real shot to make it to New York as a Heisman finalist, but as is, he’ll be just another colorful story of the 2007 season.

10. Marshall – We are Marshall! Somehow, the Herd exploded in to the win column with a thunderous 34-21 win over Rice Saturday night in Huntington. Bernie Morris threw for 227 and ran for another 120 as Marshall jumped to a 17-0 lead at the half. C.J. Spillman, James Johnson and Maurice Kitchens all had at least 9 tackles in a solid all-around effort from the embattled D. Let’s enjoy this while it lasts, Marshall fans: UCF, ECU and Houston are next.

11. Rice – The Rice Owls, spreading wins to all corners of the globe. Rice did Saturday what no team has found a way to do since 2006, and drove Marshall straight in to victory lane with a stinker of a performance on the road. Let’s play a game: you tell me which of these stats is more shocking. A. Rice’s leading rusher, C.J. Ugokwe, averages 28 yards per game, B. Rice is 118^th or worse in the nation in 4 of the 5 major defensive statistical categories, or C. statistically, Rice looks about like Notre Dame?

12. SMU – The Ponies are coach-huntin’ after Phil Bennett got the old heave ho this week, and it’ll be hard to replace his…OK, maybe it won’t be that hard to replace Bennett. But for now, the team is in disarray, despite really not being that bad so far in the C-USA. Sure, the record is 0-4, but that’s two OT losses and a last minute Tulsa TD we’re talking about. However, that’s all immaterial now. 1-7 teams don’t replace their coach if the season ain’t over.

Virginia Tech vs. Georgia Tech Preview

2007-10-30T13:11:00.001-05:00

Two Techs enter. One leaves victorious. That’s the guarantee against Georgia Tech, as the Hokies try to forget Boston College. Last Thursday, VA Tech snatched defeat from the jaws of victory; can they turn it around in the Tech Bowl? Let’s take a look at the opponent:

GEORGIA TECH (5-3, 2-3 ACC)

Offense

There aren’t a whole lot of offenses in the nation that rely on one player more than the Yellow Jackets with Tashard Choice. Coming in to this Thursday, GT’s rush offense is 13^th in the nation, and the pass offense is 107^th. Choice is by far the workhorse among the running backs, leading the ACC at 108 yards per game. That’s why the GT attack should be so benign without him. At press time, word on the e-street was that Choice would definitely miss this weekend’s contest. For some reason, I’m not convinced. The senior running back has never missed a game since he transferred to Atlanta from Oklahoma three years ago. Furthermore, despite his apparent absence, Las Vegas still has GT listed as a 2.5 point favorite, which would be almost inconceivable were he not in uniform. Confused? Me too.

Regardless, other offensive weapons will have to step up; as good as Choice has been, the 2-3 ACC record shows that he can’t carry Tech all by himself. One option is career backup, senior RB Rashaun Grant, who has shown promise this year, gaining 231 yards on just 39 carries. Grant is a fifth-year senior that, at the very least, will know where the holes are supposed to be, and shouldn’t make a ton of mental mistakes. He picked up 119 yards on just 11 carries against Army, so the explosiveness seems to be there. Freshmen Jonathan Dwyer and Josh Nesbitt represent the backfield of the future, and both average over 25 yards per game.

Those Tech fans hoping the QB situation would dramatically improve with Reggie Ball moving on to greener pastures have been left wanting in 2008. GT is a startling 113^th nationally in pass efficiency, and despite some good outings from Taylor Bennett, has been crippled offensively by its one way limitations. Bennett’s best game of the year was a 22-34 for 309 outing against Maryland, but even then, the junior couldn’t led his team to victory. Any running back that plays will be a better offensive option than Bennett and the passing game so, as usual, the key for Tech on defense is to swallow the run game and force Bennett to beat them. He can’t.

No GT receiver is in the ACC’s top 12 in receptions or yards per game, so there’s probably not a whole lot to fear here. Sophomore wideout Greg Smith and freshman WR Demaryius Thomas are the 1-2 punch, both averaging between 3-3.2 catches and 40-50 yards per game. The two young guns can hurt the Hokies, but they won’t beat them. Up front, Georgia Tech sports an impressive offensive line that has given Bennett every chance to succeed this year. The Ramblin’ Wreck is a killer across the front five; 4 of the 5 o-line starters began the year with 26 consecutive starts. Even though the unit has been beset my some injuries, including a recent one to right guard Nate McManus, they’re still great. The unit has allowed Bennett to be put on his back just six times in eight games, good for 3^rd best nationally.

Defense

The Wreck defense has kept GT in games even when the offense wasn’t clicking, and is easily the strength of the team. There’s balance here, too; Tech boasts the nation’s 6^th best rushing D and its 34^th best passing D. GT is 1^st in the ACC in both yards allowed and points allowed.

The defensive front four has been just as dominant as Tech’s offensive line. Opposing QBs have gone down in heaps this season, as the Yellow Jackets have sacked signal callers 3.63 times per game this year, good for 4^th nationally. That’s a net gain of 3 sacks per game over their opponents; it’s a big number, and so is their 9.50 TFL average, 2^nd nationally. VT absolutely must keep this swarming crew out of the backfield. Tech has three of the ACC’s top 12 sackmeisters; junior DL Vance Walker, senior LB Philip Wheeler and senior DL Darrell Robertson. All three are deadly in opposing backfields.

If VT can cross the line of scrimmage, there’s hope for success, but Tech boasts playmakers at several positions in the back 7 as well. At DB, freshman Morgan Burnett is looking like a possible future star; with 30 tackles on the year, and 3 picks in GT’s last five games, Burnett is quickly becoming a fixture on opposing coaches’ game plans. Shane Bowen is another young player with talent to burn. The sophomore LB is improving a lot on the job in his first starting year, with 4 TFL and 3 sacks. Senior LB Gary Guyton is a leader on the unit, with 45 tackles and 12 TFL; junior DL Darryl Richard has 4 sacks.

Special Teams

Senior Travis Bell will be an all-ACC kicker after the season is over. Bell has hit 17 of 20 FGs on the year for a smashing 85% accuracy mark. Bell has been doin’ it for four years in Atlanta, and if you throw out his awful sophomore slump, the career numbers are excellent: 44 of 55 on 3-pointers. If Choice is out, punter Durant Brooks will have to be a weapon and, to date, the senior has been up to the task. Brooks’ average is 45.22 yards per kick, good for 7^th nationally.

Pick

The BC loss was such a gut-wrencher that it’ll take a very special week of focus, intensity and practice to exorcise the ghosts from that one. GT’s defense is every bit as solid as the Virginia Tech side, but without as many SportsCenter highlights. If Choice is out, how successful will the VT D be at completely crushing the GT run game so that Bennett has to beat them? It’ll be close either way, but I think Georgia Tech comes in rested off its bye week and secures a win. Yellow Jackets, by a nose. Georgia Tech 20, Virginia Tech 17.

SEC Power Rankings: Week Ten

2007-10-29T17:25:00.000-05:00

In the West, LSU can effectively wrap it up with a win at ‘Bama this week. On the east side, Tennessee and Georgia are neck and neck with the Vols holding the tiebreaking head-to-head win. How do they all stack up on a neutral field? Let’s check it out.

LSU – The Tigers coast in to T-Town this Saturday, and hopefully their pulses have slowed after three consecutive down to the wire battles. LSU is an 8-point favorite at ‘Bama, and the defense has a lot at stake, after getting violated in three straight outings. They’ve lost their #1 spot in the nation’s rankings; don’t expect them to lose their top spot in the SEC East.
Auburn – This Tiger D is easily a top-5 unit right now; after a slow start, Auburn’s stoppers are 8^th nationally in yards and 9^th in scoring. Watching them feast on Ole Miss this Saturday was like…well…watching a Tiger feast on an old rebel with a huge moustache. Raise your hand if you can’t wait for Auburn to visit Sanford.
Georgia – The Bulldogs got a season-turning win over Florida Saturday in the Cocktail Party, and now it’s home for at three-game Sanford Stand before the season ender in Atlanta. Knowshon Moreno might finally get the national press he deserves after the huge outing vs. the Gators, and let’s hope he stays healthy. The depth chart looks bleak below the freshman sensation.
Florida – Despite all the talent, what’s obvious now is that Florida has some big holes on defense and lacks the overall talent to fend off teams that are lying in wait. November 10^th’s Spurrier Bowl is an elimination game in the East; do the Gators have the horses to handle the Gamecocks? Taking the nation’s 87^th best pass defense in to Columbia is a big no-no.
Alabama – Nick Saban: time to earn your keep. This weekend’s clash against LSU is the kind of game that ‘Bama fans are paying their multi-gazillion dollar coach to win. The Tide will need a very special effort to move the ball against a rested and hungry LSU defense. LSU’s weakness is their poor protection of Matt Flynn. At just 10^th in the SEC in sacks, ‘Bama may not be able to capitalize.
Tennessee – The Vols crack me up. Tennessee’s squeaker win over South Carolina was a classic example of why some folks in college football are absolutely insane. After UT got two chances on a last-minute field goal, and then SC’s Ryan Succop missed his try at glory, Philip Fulmer pounded his chest in a post game presser, saying: “Everybody who thought our season was over just doesn’t know what Tennessee football is all about.” If either of those two unlikely events don’t happen in the final seconds, both of which were totally out of his control, Fulmer might be getting a pink slip.
South Carolina – The shine is off the Gamecocks a little bit, now that the Kentucky win doesn’t look so great and the offensive struggles at LSU look even worse. Seems like Blake Mitchell is back at QB…for now. Mitchell tossed for 290 at Knoxville, but this is Steve Spurrier and his gnat-like attention span we’re talking about. Chris Smelley better keep the helmet on. After the 14-catch, 151-yard game at UT, maybe Kenny McKinley will get some of the great press he deserves.
Mississippi State – MSU got a landmark win over Kentucky Saturday, and now the Bulldogs are a win away from going bowling. I’ve beat the Sylvester Croom drum all year long, and the Bulldogs finally put it all together at Commonwealth Stadium, soundly beating a UK team that beat LSU just two weeks ago. Could this team go 8-4? Probably not, but with two weeks to prepare for Alabama, and then Arkansas and Ole Miss, the bar should definitely be set at 7-5.
Kentucky – The ‘Cats have fallen hard and fast after beating LSU just two weeks ago. Andre Woodson won’t be going to New York, and the rush D is still getting handled, giving up 190+ rush yards a game (11^th in SEC). Sometimes you don’t realize until a team loses a guy just how valuable he was. Woodson has gotten all the hype, but UK’s offense struggled with Rafael Little. The defense is now 11^th in the conference in scoring, and 5^th in the East is looking very likely.
Arkansas – I’m sorry, but I’m singing the same tune with the Hawgs week after week. When will they beat a BCS team? Here are the five wins so far: Troy, N. Texas, Chattanooga, FIU and Ole Miss. This late in the year, when so many other teams have played the teeth of their schedules, this disparity renders Arkansas’ stats almost meaningless. All we have to go on is DMac’s highlight reel and the hope that maybe, just maybe, the weak schedule has Arkansas more rested than its upcoming opponents, South Carolina and Tennessee.
Vanderbilt – The Vandy D is an unheralded unit, led by senior LBs Jonathan Goff and Marcus Buggs. The unit is 14^th nationally in yards allowed, and continues to pick up an offense that has been plum awful at 105^th nationally in yards and 111^th in passing yards. Despite the big win over SC two weeks ago, the ‘Dores lineup with Florida, Kentucky and Tennessee the next three weeks, before getting Wake Forest at, in all likelihood, 5-6. The nation will be sick of the SEC, but if Vandy gets one more conference win and then plays Wake tough, they’ll deserve a bowl bid.
Ole Miss – And, trailing the pack by 25 lengths: the Rebs. At 12^th in the SEC in the following categories: rush O, scoring O, rush D, total D, punting, punt returns and turnover margin, and without even the future to look forward to (Ben Jarvus Green Ellis and Seth Green are both seniors), Kinko’s may be expecting a work order for resume printing from head coach Ed Orgeron and his staff very soon.

MAC Power Rankings: Week Ten

2007-10-29T15:12:00.000-05:00

We’re heading full bore down the stretch in the 2007 MAC season, and the leaders are an even mix of surprises (Buffalo, Temple) and favorites (CMU, Ball State). Miami, Bowling Green, and E. Michigan are still in the mix, too. Will the real thoroughbreds please stand up?

How do I think these teams would fare if the played tomorrow on a neutral field? Let’s take a look:

1.Central Michigan – The Chips are still the clear cut MAC favorite, although I was a bit disappointed in their defense giving up 32 points to the Giorgio Martin-led Kent State attack. I’ll give CMU a pass, however – Martin is probably a better downfield thrower than Julian Edelman, and Eugene Jarvis is a load to bring down, no matter the circumstances. It’s going to take a major hiccup for the Chippewas to give away the MAC West to Ball State. No chance they lose to both WMU and EMU.

2.Ball State – The Cardinals were good against Illinois, but not good enough. The Cards led the Illini 10-7 early in the third quarter, courtesy of a Mike Dorulla INT return for a score, but ultimately couldn’t stop Rashard Mendenhall and got beat by the better team. No shame in that, and the oddsmakers see this week’s clash at Indiana as being much closer, with the Hoosiers opening as just a 6.5 point favorite. Is it too late to ship Nate Davis to Ypsilanti to help EMU beat the Chippewas?

3.Buffalo – I finally saw the Bulls in person this weekend and trust me, these Bulls are for real. Buffalo is playing tough, tackling hard, bringing emotion and finishing games right now. If every remaining contest were played on a neutral field, I have to think Buffalo should be the East favorite. Unfortunately, they head to Miami, where they’re a 7 point dog this weekend. The Bulls are 4-1 at UB Stadium and 0-4 on the road; a win this weekend clinches no worse than a tie for the East.

4.Miami – It’s go time for the Redhawks this Saturday. For all intents and purposes, they’re locked out of the East race with a loss, and the favorites with a win. Miami brought no running game whatsoever to Vanderbilt last Saturday, but Raudabaugh did throw for 200+ yards and a couple scores. How will the Miami D fare against the 1-2 punch of Starks and Henry? On a neutral field, I think Buffal wins by 3. In Oxford, Miami has to be the favorite.

5.Bowling Green – BGSU played itself clean out of the East title hunt with a disappointing outing against Ohio Saturday. Falcon defenders were allergic to Kalvin McRae, and the big back punished the D again and again to the tune of 200 yards on 42 carries. The East is still not mathematically out of reach, but the Falcons need a lot of help. They probably won’t get it, so now the focus turns to bowl eligibility and keeping the Willie Geter machine humming.

6.Temple – I’m rethinking last week’s call of Temple at 3C despite the Owls’ bye week this week. Adam DiMichele was just too monumental in Temple’s early season success for the Owls to keep getting wins at season’s end. However, beware of the Owls this weekend at Peden Stadium – Temple, on 13 days rest, gets a Bobcat squad on just 6 days rest since Kalvin McRae’s 42 carry performance Saturday.

7.Eastern Michigan – The Eagle defense, sick of getting no help from the offense, did the job all day long against WMU, and got EMU a big, big win against the in-state rival Broncos. The linebacking corps did a number on Brandon West and Mark Bonds while EMU’s Pierre Walker ran wild for 151 yards on 33 carries. Can EMU win the West? They’ve got to beat Toledo and CMU to earn a three-way tie for the division lead. It’s going to be very tough – can Walker keep it going?

8.Western Michigan – The Broncos had been a little overrated all year, and the bottom finally fell out at Eastern in an embarrassing 19-2 loss. What went wrong for the preseason West favorite? They’re still 106th nationally in turnover margin, and they haven’t protected Hiller (95th nationally in sacks allowed). Now, they get to play spoiler against the hated Chips next Tuesday at Waldo.

9.Toledo – 70 points? 70 freakin’ points? Aaron Opelt and the passing attack went positively berserk against Northern Illinois Saturday. Opelt threw 4 TDs and 387 yards, while two Rocket backs (DaJuane Collins and Jalen Parmele) topped the 100 yard mark. 430 yards passing, 382 yards rushing, three TDs in each of the first three quarters. Egads, what an outing.

10.Ohio – The Bobcat offense was All Day Kalvin McRae against Bowling Green Saturday, bringing some respectability back to a season that had fallen apart. Could Ohio still make a bowl game? At 4-5, it’ll take a sweep over Temple, Akron and Miami to get it done. But the Bobcats get 2 of those three at home, so 3 for 3 is possible. However, Akron will be the ‘Cats third game in 12 days; we’ll see how they hold up.

11.Akron – The Zips ran in to a buzzsaw in Buffalo, with the weather getting really nasty just as the Bulls iced a fourth quarter lead. The Zips defense is still capable (3rd in the MAC in total yards), but the offense just can’t get enough going on the ground, and Chris Jacquemain isn’t good enough to carry the load by himself. Oh well – Akron’s holding that Wagon Wheel for another year.

12.Kent State – Future met present in Kent Saturday as Giorgio Martin looked pretty doggone good in his first collegiate action, throwing for 247 yards and 3 scores against CMU. Neither defense really wanted to do anything; it was 21-13 at the end of the first quarter. KSU was in it late, trailing by just 6, but couldn’t get the ball rolling in the fourth quarter.

13.Northern Illinois – The Huskies got absolutely torched at Toledo to the tune of 70-21, and it’s really looking like this team lost some heart when they lost any hope of a winning season. Justin Anderson hasn’t gotten nearly enough praise in MAC circles this year for his rushing performance, but when you’re following Garrett Wolfe, I guess that’s bound to happen. Another bright spot continues to be Larry English, who had two more sacks on Aaron Opelt.

SEC Review: Week Nine

2007-10-29T01:46:00.001-05:00

Georgia stole the spotlight from Mississippi State and Tennessee with a big ole’ win in the Cocktail Party to deal Florida its third SEC loss. The eight point dogs got a twelve point win for their third win over the Gators in eighteen tries. What happened around the rest of the league? Check it:

Game of the Week

Georgia 42, Florida 30 – The ‘Dawgs opened a can on Florida with great execution and passion, using a bye week’s fresh legs to outlast the Gators late in the game, outscoring UF in the second half 21-13. Knowshon Moreno was enormous, earning 188 yards and three touchdowns on 33 carries and bursting full-force on to the national stage. The Bulldogs looked pretty sharp in all facets, and pounding Tebow to the tune of negative 15 yards rushing. Percy Harvin got free out of the Florida backfield for some nice gains, but Tebow is the key, and Tebow didn’t beat UGA. Huge gameballs to Mark Richt and the entire Georgia team for yet another major league win away from Sanford.

Best of the Rest

Tennessee 27, South Carolina 24 – If this weren’t the UGASports website, this one could easily be game of the week. The Vols surrendered a 21-point halftime lead and got outgained by nearly 200 yards on its home turf, but somehow squeaked out an OT win when kicker Daniel Lincoln outdueled SC booter Ryan Succop in OT. Succop thought he had it won with a FG under 90 seconds to play, but Lincoln answered with just five minutes to go to send it to OT.

Ho Hum

Mississippi State 31, Kentucky 14 – It was a great day for SEC Bulldogs, with Mississippi State getting a landmark road win at Commonwealth and, probably, knocking Andre Woodson out of any Heisman consideration. This is MSU’s third road win of the year, and they got it by forcing 6 UK turnovers, including three Woodson INTs and three Wildcat fumbles. Sophomore Christian Ducre cut loose for 119 rushing yards and freshman Wesley Carroll played very well, with 158 passing yards and two scores against no picks. If MSU goes bowling, and they’re one game away from doing so, this will be the landmark win of the Sylvester Croom era to date.

Vanderbilt 24, Miami 13 – If you want to hold a beauty pageant, ask the Vandy student body, not the football team. It wasn’t glamorous, as the Commodores trailed Miami with five minutes left in the third when Chris Nickson got in from two yards out to give Vandy a four point lead. It wasn’t really over, though, until Jackson-Garrison scored from 15 to give Vanderbilt an 11 point edge with 6 minutes to go. To Vandy’s credit, the front line was dominant, outrushing the Commodores 290-26, but the back end gave up 212 passing yards and got no picks from a struggling Daniel Raudabaugh and the Redhawk passing game. Still, this is Vandy, and a win’s a win; one more, and they’re bowl eligible.

Auburn 17, Ole Miss 3 – This wasn’t quite as close as the score made it look, with Auburn winning the yardage battle by almost 250 yards, and surrendering only a 51-yard field goal at the first half gun to prevent the shut out. The Auburn defense is just so good – 123 passing yards on 28 attempts, 70 yards on 29 carries. Dominant. Auburn was great on third down, perfect on fourth down, and only committed one turnover. Despite the losses, this team is playing like a top 10 squad right now.

Boooooring

Arkansas 58, Florida International 10 – Big deal. Big freaking deal. You’re the SEC West champs, you have two of the best five running backs in the country, you’re an SEC team, BEAT A REAL TEAM. Arkansas beat FIU by 48. Darren McFadden looked fairly average yet again, and even Felix Jones struggled to go in to liftoff, but the Hogs spread it around to several backs and actually got competent passing from Springdale product Nathan Emert. It’s Halloween, and the defending West champs have beaten one BCS football team.

C-USA Review: Week 9

2007-10-28T23:48:00.000-05:00

Three out of six games decided by less than a touchdown, a 250 yard passing day, a couple 350 yard passing outings…just par for the course in the C-USA. Let’s take a look at the weekend action.

Game of the Week
Tulsa 29, SMU 23 – The Ponies didn’t look like much on paper, but they just kept plugging away, getting a 52-yard field goal to take the lead with over ten minutes to go. After a Paul Smith fumble and another Tulsa punt, SMU drove to the Tulsa 2-yard line with second and goal. But the Golden Hurricane defense made its biggest goal line stand of the year, stuffing SMU and giving Paul Smith and the offense the ball back, 99 yards from victory. Smith found Charles Clay for a 51 yard score just under minute to go, and Tulsa survived. I thought this one might be closer than the experts thought, but certainly wasn’t prepared for Tulsa to need a 99-yard drive with the game on the line. Golden Hurricane fans have to be pleased that the defense stood up for a big play, but this wasn’t nearly the performance Tulsa needed to build momentum for the stretch drive.

Best of the Rest

Memphis 28, Tulane 27 – Oh, Tulane. Up my six at the Memphis 5, Green Wave kicker Ross Thevenot missed a 22-yard field goal. Memphis took over with five minutes to go, and drove 80 yards down the field, converting three straight third downs as Martin Hankins found Duke Calhoun for a 5-yard score with 36 seconds to play, and an extra point gave the Tigers a win. The Wave lost its third heartbreaker in four weeks while Matt Forte put up another gargantuan outing, getting 278 yards on 44 carries. Forte now leads UCF’s Kevin Smith for the national rushing lead by a whopping 37 yards a game, but it hasn’t been enough to help Tulane win close games. The Tigers got their second straight gutty performance from Martin Hankins, who chucked for 355 and two scores, including the winner.

Houston 34, UTEP 31 – The total score wasn’t quite as high as we would have guessed, but the outcome was just as close. Houston held off UTEP’s late charge to win another barn burner in El Paso, and leaves west Texas the clear-cut division leader. The Miner offense looked like it might post another heroic late drive, but Lorne Sam couldn’t corral a sideline pass on 4th and 1 from the 36 and Houston took over for the W. The Cougars’ QB carousel swung to Case Keenum, who paced UH with a 13-20, 116 yard day. Anthony Aldridge was as great as he’s been all year, topping the 200 yard mark on just 27 carries.

Ho Hum

Marshall 34, Rice 21 – Marshall plowed its way in to the win column with an emphatic 34-21 over Rice, riding a monster dual-threat day from QB Bernard Morris (223 passing yards, 120 rushing yards) and a great start by the defense, which gave Marshall a chance to build a 17-0 lead and get some breathing room. Don’t ask me how Vegas saw this one coming: the Herd was a 9-point favorite despite a rough early season that saw them start 0-7. Now, it’s the Owls looking up at the rest of the C-USA, sitting at 1-7 themselves and ranked 118th nationally in almost every single defensive category. Ouch. Owls fans: Hoo’s looking forward to next year?

UCF 34, Southern Miss 17 – The Knights sent a little message to the East that they aren’t dead yet, winning an easy Sunday night victory over the sometimes-great sometimes-brutal Golden Eagles. Kevin Smith got yards, but QB Kyle Israel is the linchpin to UCF’s late season success, and with very solid outings in his last three C-USA outings, the signal-caller is starting to hit peak form. If the defense plays like it did tonight, forcing four turnovers and making life easier for Israel and the offense. Southern Miss has potential, but when they turn the ball over, like they did tonight, the Eagles are really, really bad.

Boooooooooooooooring

East Carolina 41, UAB 6 – The Pirates now boast what is easily the most impressive bowl resume of any C-USA squad, with wins over North Carolina, UTEP, Houston, UCF and UAB. Get a load of Patrick Pinkney’s QB rating: 370.8. Egads. Pinkney was 6 of 7 for 159 yards and 2TD and the running game rolled to the tune of 216 yards on 35 carries. The bright spot for UAB was…the final gun?

Buffalo 26, Akron 10

2007-10-27T22:50:00.000-05:00

The term “icing a game” has never been so literal.

As dark clouds turned to rain and the brisk wind whipped a frigid autumn cold, Buffalo stayed red hot, getting a 35-yard field goal from A.J. Principe with 3:12 to go to ice their fourth MAC win of the year, 26-10 over Akron.

Under a bleak sky, Buffalo (3-0, 4-1, 4-5) got 125 passing yards and three passing TDs from Drew Willy to snatch its third MAC East win and secure a winning record at home for the first time in Division I.

In eight MAC campaigns, the Bulls have posted a record of just 8-56, but this year stand 4-1 and control their own destiny in the East division.

Coming off a bye week which followed two straight contests decided in the final seconds, Akron (1-2, 2-2, 3-5) opened the scoring with a 13-play, 80-yard TD drive to grab a 7-0 lead.

But Buffalo promptly answered, marching 55 yards in just 8 plays, and getting a key completion from Willy to TE Jesse Rack on 3^rd and 4 from the Zips’ 39. Three plays later, Willy found Ernest Jackson for an 11 yard TD toss.

The Bulls’ junior quarterback finished 11 of 14 passing with the three scores, which tied a career high.

After forcing an Akron punt, Buffalo went back to work, and thanks to a 34-yard run by Naaman Roosevelt, quickly found itself in scoring position again. On the play, the versatile sophomore lined up at quarterback.

“When coach calls that kind of play, it’s pretty much just go in there and try to execute it,” Roosevelt says. “I give coach tons of credit for calling those plays at the right time.”

According to the Buffalo pre-game radio show, Turner Gill is one of only 11 Division-I head coaches known to call his team’s offensive plays.

Roosevelt had three catches for 34 yards, and capped the Bulls’ second scoring drive with a 9-yard TD catch in traffic, giving Buffalo a 13-7 lead it would not relinquish.

From there, the scoring pace slowed, with each team fighting the harsh winds, which reached 35 miles per hour, and a misty rain that began in the second half and became a pounding sideways drizzle by game’s end.

“We had the wind in the fourth quarter, so I wouldn’t say the weather bothered us much until the rain started,” Akron Head Coach J.D. Brookhart said afterward. “And that made things difficult for us, for sure.”

Brookhart may have understated the weather’s impact. Only 125 of Akron’s 327 yards came after halftime, as the Zips fought both the elements and a tenacious Buffalo defensive front that asserted more and more pressure as the game progressed.

For Buffalo, the win was just another in a season of firsts. The Bulls logged their first win in nine tries against Akron, and gained momentum heading in to next week’s showdown against the MAC East’s second place squad, the Miami Redhawks. Akron had won the schools’ first eight meetings by an average score of 32-14.

With a win, the Bulls will clinch no worse than a tie for the East title, a remarkable feat for a program that ESPN.com ranked the worst in college football prior to the season.

Sophomore James Starks led the Bulls’ ground game with 91 yards on 24 carries. Akron freshman Bryan Williams paced the Zips with 21 carries for 87 yards.

Akron is at Bowling Green next Friday, while Buffalo plays Miami on Saturday afternoon.